ARkStorm
| Iri |
hypothetical event (en)  |
|---|---|
| Suna saboda |
atmospheric river (en) |
| Ƙasa | Tarayyar Amurka |
ARkStorm (don Kogin Atmospheric 1,000) babban guguwa ne mai ban mamaki, wanda shawararsa ta dogara ne akan maimaita abubuwan da suka faru na tarihi na koguna na yanayi da sauran manyan abubuwan da suka gabata da aka fara kirkirar kuma aka buga ta Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) na Binciken Yanayi na Amurka (USGS) a cikin 2010. [1] An buga wani sabon samfurin a matsayin ARkStorm 2.0 a cikin 2022.[2]
ARkStorm 1.0 (Binciken 2010)
[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]Labarin ARkStorm 1.0 ya bayyana wani gagarumin guguwa wanda ya lalata yawancin California, wanda ya haifar da asarar dala biliyan 725 (yawanci saboda ambaliyar ruwa da rushewa), kuma ya shafi kashi ɗaya cikin huɗu na gidajen California. Shirin ya haifar da tasirin guguwa wanda zai kasance mai ƙarancin ƙarfi (kwana 25 na ruwan sama) fiye da guguwar California da ta faru tsakanin Disamba 1861 da Janairu 1862 (kwana 43). Wannan taron ya zubar da kusan 10 feet (3.0 m) na ruwan sama a wasu sassan California.[3][4]
USGS sediment bincike a cikin San Francisco Bay Area, Santa Barbara Basin, Sacramento Valley, da kuma Klamath Mountain yankin gano cewa "megastorms" ya faru a cikin shekaru: 212, 440, 603, 1029, c. 1300, 1418, 1605, 1750, 1810, kuma, mafi kwanan nan, 1861-1862. Dangane da tazara tsakanin waɗannan abubuwan da aka sani, daga shekaru 51 zuwa 426, don maimaita tarihin tarihi na, a matsakaita, kowace shekara 100-200. [3]
Shaidar ilimin ƙasa ta nuna cewa yawancin abubuwan da suka faru a baya sun fi ƙarfin wanda ya faru a cikin 1861-1862, musamman waɗanda ke cikin 440, 1418, 1605, da 1750, kowannensu ya ajiye wani nau'i na silt a cikin Santa Barbara Basin fiye da inci ɗaya (2.5 cm) kauri. Babban abin da ya faru shi ne wanda ya faru a cikin 1605, wanda ya bar wani nau'i na silt inci biyu (5 cm) mai kauri, yana nuna cewa wannan ambaliyar ta kasance aƙalla 50% mafi ƙarfi fiye da duk wani daga cikin sauran da aka rubuta.
Yanayin da aka gina a cikin labarin shine "koguna biyu masu karfi, kwana huɗu kawai, daya a Arewacin California da daya a Kudancin California, kuma daya daga cikinsu ya tsaya don ƙarin rana".
Yanayin ARkStorm 1.0 zai sami sakamako masu zuwa:
- Kwarin Tsakiya zai fuskanci ambaliyar ruwa mai nisan kilomita 300 (480 kuma aƙalla kilomita 20 (30 a fadin.
- Har ila yau, ambaliyar ruwa mai tsanani za ta faru a Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, Yankin San Francisco Bay, da sauran al'ummomin bakin teku.
- Saurin iska a wasu wurare zai kai mil 125 a kowace awa (200 km / h).
- Daruruwan rushewar ƙasa za su lalata hanyoyi, manyan hanyoyi, da gidaje.
- Lalacewar dukiya za ta wuce dala biliyan 300, mafi yawa daga ambaliyar ruwa.
- Hawan buƙatu (ƙaruwar yawan ma'aikata da sauran farashin gyare-gyare bayan manyan bala'o'i) na iya ƙara asarar dukiya da kashi 20 cikin dari.
- Rashin aikin gona da sauran farashi don gyara hanyoyin rayuwa, zubar da tsibirai masu ambaliyar ruwa, da kuma gyara lalacewar lalacewar ƙasa, na iya kawo jimlar asarar dukiya kai tsaye zuwa kusan dala biliyan 400.
- Wutar, ruwa, datti, da sauran hanyoyin rayuwa za su fuskanci lalacewa wanda zai iya ɗaukar makonni ko watanni don dawowa.[5]
- Har zuwa mazauna miliyan 1.5 a cikin yankin da ke cikin gida da yankunan delta za su buƙaci kwashewa saboda ambaliyar ruwa.
- Kudin katsewar kasuwanci na iya kaiwa dala biliyan 325, ban da dala biliyan 400 da ake buƙata don farashin gyaran dukiya, ma'ana cewa an tsara yanayin ARkStorm don kashe dala biliyan 750 (~ $ 1 tiriliyan a cikin dala 2022), [6] kusan sau uku adadin lalacewar da aka annabta ta ""Babban" Ɗaya" na gaba, girgizar ƙasa ta Kudancin California mai yiwuwa kusan wannan yiwuwar shekara-shekara.[1]
ARkStorm 2.0 (sabuntawa ta 2022)
[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]Wannan sabuntawa, tare da sassan bincike kan tasirin da har yanzu ke gudana, [yaushe?] ya yi nazarin yadda ake sa ran canjin yanayi zai ƙara haɗarin ambaliya mai ƙarfi daga ARkStorm mai hasashe, tare da raguwar 200% zuwa 400% sama da ƙimar tarihi don Saliyo Nevada a wani ɓangare saboda raguwar rabon hazo da ke faɗo a matsayin dusar ƙanƙara, da kuma adadin ruwan da zai iya ɗaukar guguwa. Yiwuwar taron da aka zayyana a cikin yanayin ARkStorm yanzu sau ɗaya a kowace shekara 25-50, tare da hasarar tattalin arziƙin sama da dala tiriliyan 1 (ko fiye da sau biyar na Hurricane Katrina).
| Abubuwan da ke faruwa | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yanayi | Hadarin Shekara-shekara | 1920 Hadari | 2071-2080 Hadari (mafi munin yanayin tare da RCP 8.5) | Kwanaki | Ruwan sama | Lalacewar (idan ya faru a yau) |
| Babban Ambaliyar 1862 | 1.2–1.6% | 0.5–0.7% | 3.4%–4.8% | 43+ | 10 feet (3.0 m) | |
| ARkStorm | 2–4% | 25+ | US $ 1 tiriliyan + (kimanin 2010 a cikin dala na 2022) | |||
Sakamakon
[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]Taswirar ambaliyar ruwa ta yanzu a Amurka ba sa ɗaukar tsinkaye na baya-bayan nan daga ayyukan kamar ARkStorm a cikin la'akari, musamman taswirar FEMA, wanda yawancin masu yanke shawara suka dogara da su.[7] Masu mallakar ƙasa, masu inshorar ambaliyar ruwa, gwamnatoci da kafofin watsa labarai galibi suna amfani da taswira kamar FEMA waɗanda har yanzu ba su wakilci manyan haɗari da yawa saboda: 1) amfani da bayanan tarihi kawai (maimakon haɗa samfuran canjin yanayi), 2) watsar da abubuwan da suka faru na ruwan sama mai yawa, da 3) rashin samfurin ambaliyar a cikin birane. Ƙarin samfuran da suka fi ƙarfi da zamani, kamar Riskfactor.com na Gidauniyar First Street, ya kamata ya fi wakiltar haɗarin ambaliyar ruwa na gaskiya duk da cewa ba a bayyana ba idan wannan samfurin, alal misali, ya haɗa da duk wani kimiyyar ARkStorm.[8]
Hukumomin gwamnati na iya yanke shawarar yawan haɗarin da za su karɓa, da kuma yawan haɗarin don ragewa. Hanyar Netherlands don kula da ambaliyar ruwa, alal misali, shirye-shiryen 1 cikin shekaru 10,000 a cikin yankunan da ke da yawan jama'a [9] da 1 cikin shekaru 4,000 a cikin yankuna marasa yawan jama'awa.
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 Porter, Keith; et al. (2011). "Overview of the ARkStorm scenario". USGS Open-File 2010-1312. Open-File Report: 28. Bibcode:2011usgs.rept...28P. doi:10.3133/ofr20101312. Archived from the original on 2011-01-17. Retrieved 2011-01-17.
|hdl-access=requires|hdl=(help) Cite error: Invalid<ref>tag; name "usgs-ofr" defined multiple times with different content - ↑ "ARkStorm 2.0: Climate change is increasing the risk of a California megaflood". Weather West (in Turanci). 2022-08-11. Retrieved 2023-01-04.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Dettinger, M. D.; Ingram, B. L. (January 2013). "The Coming Megafloods" (PDF). American Scientific. 169: 64–71. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2020-11-08. Retrieved 2019-02-24. Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; name "coming Megaflood" defined multiple times with different content - ↑ Null, J.; Hulbert, J. (2007). "California Washed Away: The Great Flood of 1862". Weatherwise. 60 (1): 26–30. Bibcode:2007Weawi..60a..26N. doi:10.3200/wewi.60.1.26-30. S2CID 191490229.
- ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedWM 2020-08-29 - ↑ 6.0 6.1 Huang, Xingying; Swain, Daniel L. (2022-08-12). "Climate change is increasing the risk of a California megaflood". Science Advances (in Turanci). 8 (32): eabq0995. Bibcode:2022SciA....8..995H. doi:10.1126/sciadv.abq0995. ISSN 2375-2548. PMC 9374343 Check
|pmc=value (help). PMID 35960799 Check|pmid=value (help). Cite error: Invalid<ref>tag; name ":0" defined multiple times with different content - ↑ Meyer, Theodoric (July 18, 2013). "Using Outdated Data, FEMA Is Wrongly Placing Homeowners in Flood Zones". ProPublica (in Turanci). Retrieved 2023-01-04.
- ↑ Briscoe, Tony; Song, Lisa (June 30, 2020). "Millions of Homeowners Who Need Flood Insurance Don't Know It — Thanks to FEMA". ProPublica (in Turanci). Retrieved 2023-01-04.
- ↑ McQuaid, John. "A Dutch Solution for New York's Storm Surge Woes?". Forbes (in Turanci). Retrieved 2023-01-11.