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Abubuwan da ke tattare da shi a cikin tsarin yanayi

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Infotaula d'esdevenimentAbubuwan da ke tattare da shi a cikin tsarin yanayi

Iri window of opportunity (en) Fassara

A cikin kimiyyar yanayi, maɓallin juyawa shine ƙofar mahimmanci wanda, idan aka haye shi, yana haifar da manyan, hanzarta kuma sau da yawa ba za a iya juyawa ba a cikin tsarin yanayi.[1] Idan an haye maki masu tasowa, suna iya samun mummunar tasiri ga al'ummar ɗan adam kuma suna iya hanzarta dumamar duniya.[2][3] Ana samun halayyar Tipping a duk faɗin tsarin yanayi, misali a cikin kankara, kankara na dutse, alamu na yaduwa a cikin teku, a cikin yanayin halittu, da kuma yanayi.[3] Misalan maki masu tasowa sun haɗa da narkewar permafrost, wanda zai saki methane, gas mai karfi, ko narkewar ƙanƙara da kankara da ke rage albedo na Duniya, wanda zai dumi duniya da sauri. Rashin sanyi mai zurfi yana da barazana saboda yana riƙe da kusan sau biyu fiye da adadin da ke yawo a halin yanzu a cikin yanayi.[4]

Tipping points are often, but not necessarily, abrupt. For example, with average global warming somewhere between 0.8 °C (1.4 °F) and 3 °C (5.4 °F), the Greenland ice sheet passes a tipping point and is doomed, but its melt would take place over millennia.[5][6] Tipping points are possible at today's global warming of just over 1 °C (1.8 °F) above preindustrial times, and highly probable above 2 °C (3.6 °F) of global warming.[3] It is possible that some tipping points are close to being crossed or have already been crossed, like those of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and warm-water coral reefs. A 2022 study published in Science found that exceeding 1.5 °C of global warming could trigger multiple tipping points, including the collapse of major ice sheets, abrupt thawing of permafrost, and coral reef die-off, with potential for cascading system effects.[7] [8]

Hadari shine cewa idan an haye maɓallin tipping a cikin tsarin daya, wannan na iya haifar da wasu maɓallan tipping, wanda ke haifar da mummunan, mai yuwuwa bala'i'i, [9] tasirin.[10] Tsallaka ƙofar a wani ɓangare na tsarin yanayi na iya haifar da wani abu mai saurin gudu don shiga cikin sabuwar jiha.[11] Misali, asarar kankara a Yammacin Antarctica da Greenland zai canza yaduwar teku sosai. Ci gaba da dumama na arewacin latitudes sakamakon wannan tsari na iya kunna abubuwa masu tasowa a wannan yankin, kamar lalacewar permafrost, da kuma mutuwar gandun daji.[1]

Masana kimiyya sun gano abubuwa da yawa a cikin tsarin yanayi wanda zai iya samun maki.[1] Tun daga watan Satumba na 2022, an san abubuwa guda tara na duniya da ke da alaƙa da tasirin yanki guda bakwai.[2] Daga cikin waɗancan, yanki ɗaya da yanayi uku na yanayi na duniya da alama za su iya wucewa idan ɗumamar yanayi ta kai 1.5 °C (2.7 °F). Su ne faɗuwar dusar ƙanƙara ta Greenland, Rushewar takardar ƙanƙara ta Yammacin Antarctic, murjani na wurare masu zafi da ke mutuwa, da narkewar kwatsam.

Abubuwan da ke tattare da su suna cikin tsarin da yawa, misali a cikin cryosphere, a cikin raƙuman teku, da kuma tsarin ƙasa. Abubuwan da ke tattare da su a cikin cryosphere sun haɗa da: rushewar kankara ta Greenland, rushewar ice sheet na Yammacin Antarctic, rushewa na kankara na Gabashin Antarctic, raguwar kankara na teku, koma baya na kankara, narkewar permafrost. Abubuwan da ke tattare da sauye-sauyen yanzu na teku sun haɗa da Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), North Subpolar Gyre da Southern Ocean overturning circulation. A ƙarshe, wuraren da ke cikin tsarin ƙasa sun haɗa da gandun daji na Amazon, canjin gandun daji, Sahel green, da kuma shagunan da ke da rauni na carbon mai zafi.

Ma'anar

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Tsarin da ke wucewa ta hanyar wucewa. Tsarin ya fara (blue) a daya daga cikin jihohi biyu masu ɗorewa, wanda aka wakilta da kwallon a kwarin hannun hagu. A karkashin tilasta waje a tsawon lokaci (daga hagu zuwa dama) wannan jihar ta rasa kwanciyar hankali (purple), wanda kwarin ke samun zurfi, yana saukar da saman tudu. Bayan wani lokaci mai tsawo yanayin farko ya ɓace kuma tsarin yana fuskantar canji na kwatsam, mai motsa kansa a cikin madadin, wanda ya kasance mai ɗorewa (ja).
Matsayi mai kyau a cikin al'umma.

Rahoton Bincike na shida na IPCC ya Bayani ma'anar tipping a matsayin "ƙofar da ta wuce wanda tsarin ke sake tsarawa, sau da yawa ba zato ba tsammani kuma / ko ba za a iya juyawa ba".[12] Ana iya kawo shi ta hanyar karamin rikici wanda ke haifar da babban canji a cikin tsarin. Hakanan ana iya danganta shi da abubuwan da ke ƙarfafa kai, wanda zai iya haifar da canje-canje a cikin tsarin yanayi wanda ba za a iya juyawa ba a kan lokacin ɗan adam.[13] Ga kowane bangare na yanayi, sauyawa daga wata jiha zuwa sabuwar jiha mai ɗorewa na iya ɗaukar shekaru da yawa ko ƙarni.[13]

Rahoton Musamman na IPCC na 2019 a kan Tekun da Cryosphere a cikin Yanayin Canji ya bayyana wani batu kamar haka: "Mataki na canji a cikin kaddarorin tsarin da tsarin ya sake tsarawa, sau da yawa a hanyar da ba ta layi ba, kuma ba ta komawa ga jihar ta farko ko da aka rage direbobi na canji. " Don tsarin yanayi, kalmar tana nufin wani ƙofar da ke canza yanayin duniya ko yanki daga wata jiha mai ɗorewa zuwa wata jiha. " [14]

A cikin yanayin halittu da tsarin zamantakewa, wani canji na iya haifar da Canjin mulkin, babban tsarin sake tsarawa cikin sabuwar jiha mai ɗorewa.[15] Irin waɗannan sauye-sauyen mulki ba lallai bane su kasance masu cutarwa. A cikin mahallin rikicin yanayi, ana amfani da kwatancin ma'anar ma'ana a wasu lokuta a cikin ma'ana mai kyau, kamar su komawa ga sauye-sauye a cikin ra'ayin jama'a don neman mataki don rage canjin yanayi, ko yiwuwar ƙananan canje-canje na manufofi don hanzarta sauyawa zuwa tattalin arzikin kore.[16]

Kwatanta wuraren tipping

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Scientists have identified many elements in the climate system which may have tipping points.[13] In the early 2000s the IPCC began considering the possibility of tipping points, originally referred to as large-scale discontinuities. At that time the IPCC concluded they would only be likely in the event of global warming of 4 °C (7.2 °F) or more above preindustrial times, and another early assessment placed most tipping point thresholds at 3–5 °C (5.4–9.0 °F) above 1980–1999 average warming.[17] Since then estimates for global warming thresholds have generally fallen, with some thought to be possible in the Paris Agreement range (1.5–2 °C (2.7–3.6 °F)) by 2016.[18] As of 2021 tipping points are considered to have significant probability at today's warming level of just over 1 °C (1.8 °F), with high probability above 2 °C (3.6 °F) of Masana kimiyya sun gano abubuwa da yawa a cikin tsarin yanayi wanda zai iya samun maki.2 °C (3.6 °F)[19] A farkon shekarun 2000s IPCC ta fara la'akari da yiwuwar maki masu yawa, wanda aka fi sani da manyan raguwa. A wannan lokacin IPCC ta kammala cewa za su kasance kawai a cikin yanayin dumamar duniya na 4 ° C (7.2 ° F) ko fiye da lokacin preindustrial, kuma wani kimantawa na farko ya sanya mafi yawan ƙofofin ma'auni a 3-5 ° C (5.4-9.0 ° F) sama da matsakaicin dumamar 1980-1999. [20] Tun daga wannan lokacin kimantawa don ƙofofin dumama na duniya gabaɗaya sun faɗi, tare da wasu tunanin zai yiwu a cikin Yarjejeniyar Paris (1.5-2 ° C (2.7-3.6 ° F)) ta hanyar 2016. [21] Ya zuwa 2021 ana ɗaukar maki masu tasowa suna da yiwuwar gaske a matakin dumama na yau na sama da 1 ° C (1.8 ° F), tare da babban yiwuwar sama da 2 ° C (3.6 ° F) na dumama duniya.[22] Wasu wuraren da za a iya ƙetare su ko kuma an riga an ƙetare, kamar waɗanda ke cikin kankara a Yammacin Antarctic da Greenland, coral reefs na ruwa mai dumi, da kuma gandun daji na Amazon [23]

Manazarta

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  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 Lenton, Tim; Rockström, Johan; Gaffney, Owen; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Richardson, Katherine; Steffen, Will; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim (2019). "Climate tipping points – too risky to bet against". Nature. 575 (7784): 592–595. Bibcode:2019Natur.575..592L. doi:10.1038/d41586-019-03595-0. PMID 31776487. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "Lenton2019" defined multiple times with different content
  2. ↑ "Climate change driving entire planet to dangerous "global tipping point"". National Geographic. 27 November 2019. Archived from the original on 19 February 2021. Retrieved 17 July 2022.
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 Lenton, Tim (2021). "Tipping points in the climate system". Weather. 76 (10): 325–326. Bibcode:2021Wthr...76..325L. doi:10.1002/wea.4058. ISSN 0043-1656. S2CID 238651749 Check |s2cid= value (help). |hdl-access= requires |hdl= (help) Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "Lenton2021" defined multiple times with different content
  4. ↑ "The irreversible emissions of a permafrost "tipping point"". World Economic Forum. 18 February 2020. Retrieved 17 July 2022.
  5. ↑ Armstrong McKay, David; Abrams, Jesse; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Sakschewski, Boris; Loriani, Sina; Fetzer, Ingo; Cornell, Sarah; Rockström, Johan; Staal, Arie; Lenton, Timothy (9 September 2022). "Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points". Science (in Turanci). 377 (6611): eabn7950. doi:10.1126/science.abn7950. ISSN 0036-8075. PMID 36074831 Check |pmid= value (help). S2CID 252161375 Check |s2cid= value (help). |hdl-access= requires |hdl= (help)
  6. ↑ Armstrong McKay, David (9 September 2022). "Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points – paper explainer". climatetippingpoints.info (in Turanci). Retrieved 2 October 2022.
  7. ↑ Armstrong McKay, David I. (2022). "Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points". Science. 377 (6611): eabn7950. doi:10.1126/science.abn7950.
  8. ↑ Ripple, William J; Wolf, Christopher; Newsome, Thomas M.; Gregg, Jillian W.; Lenton, Tim; Palomo, Ignacio; Eikelboom, Jasper A. J.; Law, Beverly E.; Huq, Saleemul; Duffy, Philip B.; Rockström, Johan (28 July 2021). "World Scientists' Warning of a Climate Emergency 2021". BioScience. 71 (biab079): 894–898. doi:10.1093/biosci/biab079. ISSN 0006-3568. |hdl-access= requires |hdl= (help)
  9. ↑ Steffen, Will; Rockström, Johan; Richardson, Katherine; Lenton, Timothy M.; Folke, Carl; Liverman, Diana; Summerhayes, Colin P.; Barnosky, Anthony D.; Cornell, Sarah E.; Crucifix, Michel; Donges, Jonathan F.; Fetzer, Ingo; Lade, Steven J.; Scheffer, Marten; Winkelmann, Ricarda (14 August 2018). "Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (in Turanci). 115 (33): 8252–8259. Bibcode:2018PNAS..115.8252S. doi:10.1073/pnas.1810141115. ISSN 0027-8424. PMC 6099852. PMID 30082409.
  10. ↑ Wunderling, Nico; Donges, Jonathan F.; Kurths, Jürgen; Winkelmann, Ricarda (3 June 2021). "Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming". Earth System Dynamics. 12 (2): 601–619. Bibcode:2021ESD....12..601W. doi:10.5194/esd-12-601-2021. ISSN 2190-4979. S2CID 236247596 Check |s2cid= value (help). Archived from the original on 4 June 2021. Retrieved 4 June 2021.
  11. ↑ Rocha, Juan C.; Peterson, Garry; Bodin, Örjan; Levin, Simon (2018). "Cascading regime shifts within and across scales". Science. 362 (6421): 1379–1383. Bibcode:2018Sci...362.1379R. doi:10.1126/science.aat7850. ISSN 0036-8075. PMID 30573623. S2CID 56582186.
  12. ↑ "IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch4" (PDF). p. 95. Archived (PDF) from the original on 5 September 2021. Retrieved 14 November 2021.
  13. ↑ 13.0 13.1 13.2 "Explainer: Nine "tipping points" that could be triggered by climate change". Carbon Brief. 10 February 2020. Retrieved 16 July 2022. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "carbonbrief.org" defined multiple times with different content
  14. ↑ "Glossary — Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate". Archived from the original on 16 August 2021. Retrieved 10 July 2021.
  15. ↑ Heinze, Christoph; Blenckner, Thorsten; Martins, Helena; Rusiecka, Dagmara; Döscher, Ralf; Gehlen, Marion; Gruber, Nicolas; Holland, Elisabeth; Hov, Øystein; Joos, Fortunat; Matthews, John Brian Robin (2021). "The quiet crossing of ocean tipping points". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 118 (9): e2008478118. Bibcode:2021PNAS..11808478H. doi:10.1073/pnas.2008478118. ISSN 0027-8424. PMC 7936299. PMID 33619085 Check |pmid= value (help).
  16. ↑ Lenton, Timothy M.; Benson, Scarlett; Smith, Talia; Ewer, Theodora; Lanel, Victor; Petykowski, Elizabeth; Powell, Thomas W. R.; Abrams, Jesse F.; Blomsma, Fenna; Sharpe, Simon (2022). "Operationalising positive tipping points towards global sustainability". Global Sustainability (in Turanci). 5. Bibcode:2022GlSus...5E...1L. doi:10.1017/sus.2021.30. ISSN 2059-4798. S2CID 235719545 Check |s2cid= value (help). |hdl-access= requires |hdl= (help)
  17. ↑ Lenton, Timothy M.; Held, Hermann; Kriegler, Elmar; Hall, Jim W; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim (2008-02-12). "Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system". PNAS. 105 (6): 1786–1793. Bibcode:2008PNAS..105.1786L. doi:10.1073/pnas.0705414105. PMC 2538841. PMID 18258748.
  18. ↑ Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Winkelmann, Ricarda (2016). "Why the right climate target was agreed in Paris". Nature Climate Change. 6 (7): 649–653. Bibcode:2016NatCC...6..649S. doi:10.1038/nclimate3013. ISSN 1758-6798.
  19. ↑ "Explainer: Nine "tipping points" that could be triggered by climate change". Carbon Brief. 10 February 2020. Retrieved 16 July 2022.
  20. ↑ Lenton, Timothy M.; Held, Hermann; Kriegler, Elmar; Hall, Jim W; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim (2008-02-12). "Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system". PNAS. 105 (6): 1786–1793. Bibcode:2008PNAS..105.1786L. doi:10.1073/pnas.0705414105. PMC 2538841. PMID 18258748.
  21. ↑ Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Winkelmann, Ricarda (2016). "Why the right climate target was agreed in Paris". Nature Climate Change. 6 (7): 649–653. Bibcode:2016NatCC...6..649S. doi:10.1038/nclimate3013. ISSN 1758-6798.
  22. ↑ Lenton, Tim (2021). "Tipping points in the climate system". Weather. 76 (10): 325–326. Bibcode:2021Wthr...76..325L. doi:10.1002/wea.4058. ISSN 0043-1656. S2CID 238651749 Check |s2cid= value (help). |hdl-access= requires |hdl= (help)
  23. ↑ Ripple, William J; Wolf, Christopher; Newsome, Thomas M.; Gregg, Jillian W.; Lenton, Tim; Palomo, Ignacio; Eikelboom, Jasper A. J.; Law, Beverly E.; Huq, Saleemul; Duffy, Philip B.; Rockström, Johan (28 July 2021). "World Scientists' Warning of a Climate Emergency 2021". BioScience. 71 (biab079): 894–898. doi:10.1093/biosci/biab079. ISSN 0006-3568. |hdl-access= requires |hdl= (help)
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