Binciken Yanayi na Kasa na huɗu

Binciken Yanayi na Kasa na huɗu
report (en) da scholarly article (en)
Bayanai
Bangare na	Binciken Yanayi na Kasa
Laƙabi	Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment
Muhimmin darasi	canjin yanayi
Mabiyi	Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment (en)
Maɗabba'a	U.S. Global Change Research Program (en)
Ranar wallafa	23 Nuwamba, 2018
Harshen aiki ko suna	Turanci
Shafin yanar gizo	nca2018.globalchange.gov
Kundi	2

Ƙididdigar Yanayi na Ƙasa ta huɗu (NCA4) 2017/2018 shafi ne na 1,500 kashi biyu na majalisa da aka wajabta rahoton da Shirin Binciken Canji na Duniya na Amurka (USGCRP) farko irinsa ta gwamnatin Trump, wanda ya fitar da rahoton a ranar 23 ga Nuwamba, 2018. ta hanyar Dokar Bincike ta Canjin Duniya ta 1990 . Rahoton, wanda ya dauki shekaru biyu ana kammala shi, shi ne na hudu a jerin kididdigar kididdigar da aka gudanar a kan yanayin yanayi (NCA) da suka hada da NCA1 (2000), NCA2 (2009), da NCA3 (2014).

Volume 1 na NCA4, "Climate Science Special Report" (CSSR) an sake shi a watan Oktoba na shekara ta 2017. A cikin CSSR, masu bincike sun ba da rahoton cewa "yana da matukar yiwuwar ayyukan ɗan adam, musamman hayaki na iskar gas, sune mafi yawan dalilin da aka lura da dumama tun daga tsakiyar karni na 20. Don dumama a cikin karni na ƙarshe, babu wani bayani mai gamsarwa wanda ya goyi bayan girman shaidar kallo".  : 22

Volume 2, mai taken "Hatsuna, Hadari, da Adaptation a Amurka", an sake shi a ranar 23 ga Nuwamba, 2018. A cewar NOAA, "lafiya da aminci na ɗan adam" da kuma "kyakkyawan rayuwa" na Amurka "yana da haɗari ga tasirin canjin yanayi". Kamar rahotanni da suka gabata a cikin wannan jerin, NCA4 "ra'ayi ne mai zaman kansa game da yanayin kimiyya da ya shafi canjin yanayi da tasirinsa na jiki".

Marubutan sun ce ba tare da ƙarin ƙoƙari na ragewa ba, za a sami "mummunar lalacewa a kan tattalin arzikin Amurka, lafiyar ɗan adam, da muhalli. A ƙarƙashin yanayin da ke da hayaki mai yawa da iyakance ko babu daidaitawa, asarar shekara-shekara a wasu fannoni an kiyasta ta girma zuwa daruruwan biliyoyin daloli a ƙarshen ƙarni".

Duk da yake CSSR "an tsara shi don zama ƙididdigar ƙididdiga game da kimiyyar canjin yanayi" a Amurka, bai haɗa da shawarwarin manufofi ba.

An buga Binciken Yanayi na Kasa na Biyar (NCA5) a watan Nuwamba na shekara ta 2023.

Tarihi

NASA Hoton Ranar Oktoba 26, 2017 Babban kogi na yanayi, kogi na ruwan sama, wanda ke haɗa Asiya zuwa Arewacin Amurka. A Fabrairu 2017 AR wanda ya kawo karshen fari na shekaru 5 na California, an nuna shi a gaban rahoton CSSR NCA4.

Shugaba George HW Bush ya rattaba hannu kan Dokar Binciken Canjin Duniya na 1990 104 Matsayi 3096 ya zama doka a ranar 16 ga Nuwamba, 1990, wanda ya kafa Shirin Bincike na Canjin Duniya na Amurka tare da umarni don fahimta da amsa ga sauyin duniya, ciki har da tasirin ayyukan ɗan adam da tsarin halitta a kan muhalli, don inganta tattaunawa game da ka'idojin kasa da kasa a cikin bincike na canji na duniya, da kuma wasu dalilai."

Kodayake an ba da umarnin Binciken Yanayi na Kasa don fitar da rahoto a kowace shekara huɗu, akwai rahotanni huɗu kawai tun lokacin da aka kafa Dokar Binciken Canjin Duniya ta 1990.

NCA4 Mawallafa

A cikin shirye-shiryen NCA4, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), ɗaya daga cikin hukumomin tarayya goma sha uku da suka ƙunshi ƙungiyar USGCRP, ita ce "hukumar jagoranci." Sauran hukumomin sun haɗa da DOA, DOC, DOD, DOE, HHS, DOI, DOS, DOT, EPA, NASA, NSF, Smithsonian Institution, da USAID . An samar da rahoton tare da taimakon "mutane 1,000, ciki har da manyan masana kimiyya 300, kusan rabin daga wajen gwamnati." Kwamitin Gudanar da Kimiyya na Tarayya (SSC) na CSSR ya haɗa da wakilai daga NOAA, NASA, da DOE, USGCRP da 3 Masu Gudanar da Jagoran Jagora.

Tsarin

Gwamnatin Obama ta fitar da rubutun bita na CCSR tare da lokacin bita na jama'a wanda ke gudana daga Disamba 15, 2016 zuwa Fabrairu 3, 2017.

Manufofin jama'a

Cikakken rubutun NCA4, Vol. 1.

Duk da yake CSSR "an tsara shi don zama ƙididdigar ƙididdiga game da kimiyyar canjin yanayi" a Amurka, bai haɗa da shawarwarin manufofi ba. A ranar 20 ga watan Agusta, 2017, gwamnatin Trump ta sanar da kwamitin ba da shawara na tarayya na mutane 15 don kimanta yanayin yanayi na kasa cewa yana rushe kwamitin ba le shawara na tarayya. Kwamitin Ba da Shawara na Tarayya yana fassara karatun kimiyya da binciken NCA a cikin manufofin jama'a masu aiki waɗanda jihohi zasu iya aiwatarwa don rage hayaki. A cewar wata kasida ta 20 ga watan Agusta, 2017 a cikin Washington Post, rawar da Kwamitin Ba da Shawara na Tarayya ke takawa don Binciken Yanayi na Kasa shine taimakawa "masu aikin 'yan sanda da jami'an kamfanoni masu zaman kansu su haɗa nazarin yanayi na gwamnati cikin shirin dogon lokaci". An ba kwamitin aiki tare da fassara karatu da yawa da wahayi na kimiyya waɗanda suka zama Binciken Yanayi na Kasa a cikin ayyukan manufofi waɗanda jihohi zasu iya amfani da su don rage hayakin gas. A watan Janairun 2018 Andrew Cuomo, Gwamnan Jihar New York, wani ɓangare na hadin gwiwar Jihohi, ya sake kiran wani gyare-gyare da iyakantaccen sashi na kwamitin ba da shawara na kimiyya wanda Cibiyar Nazarin Duniya ta Jami'ar Columbia ta jagoranta Richard Moss. Kwamitin jihohi ba zai iya "sakewa da tallafin tarayya ga kimiyya ba, gami da kiyaye tauraron dan adam da gina ingantaccen tsarin yanayi" kuma ba zai sami wani "tafiye a kan manufofin yanayi na tarayya ba. "

Abubuwan da aka gano

Wani labarin a cikin The Atlantic ya ce rahoton "ya yi gargadi, akai-akai kuma kai tsaye, cewa canjin yanayi zai iya sanya hanyar rayuwa ta Amurka cikin haɗari, canza kowane yanki na ƙasar, sanya farashi mai banƙyama a kan tattalin arziki, da kuma cutar da lafiyar kusan kowane ɗan ƙasa. "

A cikin sashin kan ragewa, rahoton ya ce ba tare da ƙarin ƙoƙari na ragewa ba, za a sami "mummunar lalacewa a kan tattalin arzikin Amurka, lafiyar ɗan adam, da muhalli. A ƙarƙashin yanayin da ke da hayaki mai yawa da iyakance ko babu daidaitawa, asarar shekara-shekara a wasu bangarorin an kiyasta ta girma zuwa daruruwan biliyoyin daloli a ƙarshen ƙarni. Rahoton ya ambaci binciken 2017, wanda aka buga a cikin mujallar Kimiyya, wanda ya kiyasta lalacewar tattalin arzikin Burtaniya dangane da karuwar matsakaicin zafin duniya (GMST).

Rahoton ya ce a duk faɗin Amurka lalacewar tana "ƙaruwa". Rahoton wanda ya yi nazarin "sakamakon canjin yanayi ta yankin Amurka", ya jaddada cewa "al'ummomin matalauta da maras kyau" za su kasance mafi munin "wanda guguwa da yanayin yanayi ya haifar da dumamar duniya. "[d]

Littafi na 1

Wani CRS na 2018 ya ambaci Oktoba 2017 "Rahoton Kimiyya na Musamman" CSSR: "Binciken da kuma rarrabawa, samfuran yanayi, lura, bayanan paleoclimate, da fahimtar jiki sun haifar da babban amincewa (mai yiwuwa sosai) cewa fiye da rabin abin da aka lura da yanayin zafi na duniya tun daga 1951 ya haifar da mutane, kuma babban amincewa cewa canjin yanayi na ciki ya taka rawar gani kawai (kuma mai yiwuwa ma da gudummawa mara kyau) a cikin yanayin zafi da aka lura tun 1951. Babban saƙo da goyon bayan rubutun ya haɗa da bayanan da aka rubuta a cikin rahoto na biyar da aka ganowa.

Littafi na 2

A cewar Volume II, "Hatsayi, Hadari, da Daidaitawa a Amurka", "Ba tare da raguwa mai mahimmanci da ci gaba ba na duniya da ƙoƙarin daidaitawa na yanki, ana sa ran canjin yanayi zai haifar da asarar da ke ƙaruwa ga ababen more rayuwa da dukiyar Amurka kuma ya hana yawan ci gaban tattalin arziki a wannan ƙarni. " Hukumar Kula da Tekun Kasa da Yanayi (NOAA) ita ce "maza-aikatar gudanarwa" a cikin shirye-shiryen Binciken Yanayi na Halitta na Hudu na Kasa.

Babi (Volume 2)

Juzu'i na 2 na NCA4 yana da babi goma sha biyar: Babi na 1: Yanayi na Mu na Canjin Duniya Babi na 2: "Masu Direban Jiki na Sauyin Yanayi", [ Babi na 3: "Ganewa da Halayen Canjin Yanayi", Babi na 4: "Salayen Yanayi, Halittu, da Matsaloli 5", - Matsaloli da Matsaloli Canjin yanayi", Babi na 6: "Sauye-sauyen Zazzabi a Amurka", Babi na 7: "Cujin Hazo a Amurka", Babi na 8: " Fari, Ambaliyar Ruwa, da Wutar Daji ", Babi na 9: "Tsarin Guguwa", Babi na 10: "Change 1 a Landan Coroge". Babi na 11: " Canje-canjen Arctic da Tasirinsu akan Alaska da Sauran Amurka ", Babi na 12: "Matakin Teku", Babi na 13: "Acidification na Teku da Sauran Canje-canjen Tekun", Babi na 14: "Halayen Kan Canjin Canjin Yanayi: Matsala ta . Extreme and Tipping Elements".

Babi na farko ya ba da bayyani. "Risks sau da yawa sun fi girma ga waɗanda suka riga sun kasance masu rauni, gami da al'ummomin da ba su da isasshen kuɗi, wasu al'ummomi masu launi, yara, da tsofaffi... Canjin yanayi yana barazanar kara rashin daidaito na zamantakewa da tattalin arziki wanda ke haifar da bayyanar da hankali ga matsanancin yanayi da abubuwan da suka shafi yanayi da sauran canje-canje. "

Babi na 2, mai taken "Canza Yanayi: Abubuwan Lura, Dalilai, da Canje-canje na gaba", ya ba da rahoto game da canje-canjen da aka lura a Amurka, kamar "ƙarfafa" da kuma yawan ruwan sama na yanayi da ke haɗa Asiya da Amurka, "[h] matsananciyar zafin jiki", haɓaka "hazo mai nauyi", da ja da baya na dusar ƙanƙara, raguwar ruwan dusar ƙanƙara, da raguwar glaciers na teku, da raguwar glaciers na teku. da kuma ƙara yawan acidity na teku, da yawaitar ambaliya a kan gaɓar teku, da tsawaita lokacin girma, da ƙara gobarar daji.

Halin da aka yi

President Trump states "I've seen it, I've read some of it and it's fine." and "I don't believe it."

A cikin wani rikici na 26 ga Nuwamba tare da manema labarai a Washington, DC, Shugaba Trump ya gaya wa manema labarai cewa ya ga kuma ya karanta wasu daga cikin rahoton amma bai yarda da shi ba. Fadar White House ta kori NCA4 a matsayin "maras tabbas". Mai magana da yawun Fadar White House, Lindsay Walters ya ce rahoton yanayi "yawanci ya dogara ne akan mafi girman yanayin". Walters ya yi kira ga rahotanni na NCA na gaba don samun "tsarin bayyane da sarrafa bayanai wanda ya haɗa da cikakkun bayanai game da kewayon abubuwan da za su iya faruwa da kuma sakamako". Katharine Hayhoe, masanin kimiyya na yanayi daga Jami'ar Texas Tech ta ce ikirarin Walters "ya zama ƙarya". Hayhoe ya tabbatar da cewa rahoton "ya yi la'akari da duk abubuwan da suka faru, daga wadanda muke zuwa carbon mara kyau kafin ƙarshen ƙarni zuwa wadanda ke ci gaba da karuwa".

Jaridar New York Times ta ruwaito cewa "Ma'aikatan White House sun yi lissafi cewa ainihin magoya bayan Mista Trump bazai damu da cewa binciken da ya samu ya saba da maganganun shugaban kasa da manufofi ba. " Steven Milloy, mai musanta canjin yanayi wanda ya yi aiki a cikin ƙungiyar sauyawa ta EPA ta Trump, ya kira rahoton samfurin zurfin jihar, ya kara da cewa "Ba mu damu ba. A ra'ayinmu, wannan ya zama hysteria ko ta yaya. "Ya lura cewa Gwamnati ba ta canza binciken rahoton ba amma ta zaɓi fitar da shi a ranar bayan godiya "a ranar da babu wanda ya damu, kuma yana fatan labarai na rana mai zuwa za su shafe shi. "

Wani labarin a cikin The Atlantic ya kira rahoton "mai yawa", "gargadi mai tsanani na yanayi", da kuma "babban nasara ga kimiyyar Amurka".

Dukansu The Washington Post da Vox sun bayyana rahoton a Murya">Matsayi "babban". The Post ya bayyana shi a matsayin rahoton yanayi na gwamnatin Trump. Labarin Vox ya bayyana shi a matsayin "mai banƙyama".

Wani labarin Reuters na 23 ga Nuwamba, 2018 da aka buga a cikin The New York Times ya ambaci NCA4: "Tare da ci gaba da ci gaba a cikin hayaki a farashin tarihi, asarar shekara-shekara a wasu bangarorin tattalin arziki ana hasashen ya kai daruruwan biliyoyin daloli a ƙarshen karni - fiye da babban samfurin cikin gida na yanzu (GDP) na jihohin Amurka da yawa. " A watan Yulin 2019 Times ya ambace NCA4 a cikin nasa rahotonsa don jaddada barazanar hauhawar matakin teku zuwa kasuwar dukiyar bakin teku zuwa ga kasuwar bakin teku zuwa dala tiriliyan.

Labarai a cikin Reuters / The New York Times, da BBC, sun ce gargadi da NCA ta 4 ta bayar "ya saba da tsarin man fetur na burbushin Trump"

Wani labarin a cikin The Hill ya bayyana rahoton a matsayin "mai laushi", 'mai sa ƙararrawa' game da tasirin canjin yanayi kuma ya bambanta binciken NCA4 tare da shakku game da kimiyyar canjin yanayi da Shugaba Trump ya bayyana.

Wani labarin a cikin The Verge ya kira shi " rahoto mai duhu na Jumma'a".

Wani labarin a cikin Los Angeles Times ya ce sakin NCA4 yana da mahimmanci a cikin "ƙaddamar da kuskuren ra'ayi daga yawancin Amurkawa cewa sauyin yanayi ba ya cutar da su da kansu. " Rahoton ya nuna "yadda sauyin yanayi ya riga ya shafi kowannensu, ko muna zaune a Texas ko Minnesota ko Hawai'i ko Florida. "

Collin O'Mara, Shugaban Hukumar Kula da namun daji ta Kasa (NWF) ya fitar da wata sanarwa inda ya kira lokacin da aka saki Black Friday ta White House na rahoton NCA4 - wata daya kafin a saki shi - "abin kunya". O"Mara ya ce, "Yana da cikakken kunya a binne gaskiyar game da tasirin yanayi a cikin shekara guda wanda ya ga daruruwan Amurkawa sun mutu a lokacin mummunar gobarar yanayi, guguwa, ambaliyar ruwa, da fure na algae. "

A cikin sanarwar manema labarai ta 23 ga Nuwamba, 2018, Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) ta bayyana yadda rahoton shafi 1,500 ya dogara da "mafi kyawun kimiyya da ke akwai" kuma yana aiki don taimakawa Amurka a "kiyayewa, kimantawa, tsinkaya da amsawa ga" canjin yanayi.[ing] "yana nazarin yanayi da tasirin tattalin arziki da mazaunan Amurka za su iya tsammani idan ba a dauki mataki mai tsanani don magance canjin yanayi ba". [Lura 1]

A watan Mayu na 2019, The New York Times ta ruwaito cewa gwamnatin Trump tana shirin yin canje-canje a cikin hanyoyin ƙirar yanayi da aka yi amfani da su don ƙirƙirar rahoton na gaba wanda ya kamata a cikin 2022. Maimakon tasirin aikin canji zuwa ƙarshen ƙarni kamar yadda aka yi a baya, za su tsara ne kawai zuwa 2040. Har ila yau, gwamnatin tana shirin kirkirar kwamitin sake dubawa na sauyin yanayi wanda zai yi tambaya game da ƙaddamarwar rahoton 2022. Jaridar Times ta ruwaito cewa William Happer, wanda "zai zama adadi mai banƙyama har ma da masu shakkar yanayi", zai jagoranci kwamitin.