Binciken tattalin arziki na canjin yanayi

Binciken tattalin arziki na canjin yanayi
Bayanai
Ƙaramin ɓangare na	economic analysis (en)
Fuskar	canjin yanayi

An kiyasta asarar matsakaicin kudin shiga (ja) ko riba (blue) ga kowane mutum a shekara ta 2050 saboda canjin yanayi, idan aka kwatanta da wani Labari ba tare da tasirin yanayi ba.

Binciken tattalin arziki na canjin yanayi yana amfani da kayan aiki da samfuran tattalin arziki don lissafin girman da rarraba lalacewar da canjin yanayi ya haifar. Hakanan yana iya ba da jagora ga manufofi mafi kyau don ragewa da daidaitawa da canjin yanayi daga hangen nesa na tattalin arziki. Akwai samfuran tattalin arziki da yawa da tsarin. Misali, a cikin nazarin farashi-amfanin, an bayyana canjin kasuwanci tsakanin tasirin canjin yanayi, daidaitawa, da ragewa. Don irin wannan bincike, tsarin kimantawa (IAMs) yana da amfani. Wadannan samfuran suna danganta manyan siffofi na al'umma da tattalin arziki tare da biosphere da yanayi a cikin tsarin samfurin guda ɗaya. Jimlar tasirin tattalin arziki daga canjin yanayi yana da wuyar kimantawa. Gabaɗaya, suna ƙaruwa yayin da yawan zafin jiki na duniya ke ƙaruwa (duba Yanayin canjin yanayi).

Yawancin tasirin Canjin yanayi suna da alaƙa da ma'amaloli na kasuwa sabili da haka kai tsaye yana shafar ma'auni kamar GDP ko hauhawar farashi. : 936-941 Koyaya, akwai kuma tasirin da ba na kasuwa ba wanda ya fi wuya a fassara shi cikin farashin tattalin arziki. Wadannan sun hada da tasirin canjin yanayi a kan lafiyar ɗan adam, halittu da ayyukan muhalli. Binciken tattalin arziki na canjin yanayi yana da ƙalubale saboda canjin yanayi matsala ce ta dogon lokaci. Bugu da ƙari, har yanzu akwai rashin tabbas game da ainihin tasirin canjin yanayi da lalacewar da za a sa ran. Amsoshin manufofi na gaba da Ci gaban zamantakewa da tattalin arziki ma ba su da tabbas.

Binciken tattalin arziki kuma yana kallon tattalin arzikin sauyin yanayi da farashin daidaita yanayin yanayi. Kudin ragewa zai bambanta dangane da yadda kuma lokacin da aka yanke hayaki. Da farko, aikin da aka tsara da kyau zai rage farashin. A duniya, fa'idodi da fa'idori na kiyaye dumama a ƙarƙashin 2 ° C sun wuce farashin. Kimanin farashin don ragewa ga takamaiman yankuna ya dogara da yawan hayaki da aka ba da izini ga wannan yankin a nan gaba, da kuma lokacin shiga tsakani. : 90 Masana tattalin arziki sun kiyasta ƙaruwa na rage canjin yanayi a ƙasa da 1% na GDP. Kudin tsarawa, shiryawa, sauƙaƙewa da aiwatar da daidaitawa suma suna da wuyar kimantawa, dangane da dalilai daban-daban. A duk ƙasashe masu tasowa, an kiyasta su kusan dala biliyan 215 a kowace shekara har zuwa 2030, kuma ana sa ran za su fi girma a cikin shekaru masu zuwa.  

Manufofin

Binciken tattalin arziki na canjin yanayi lokaci ne mai laima don bincike da yawa game da farashin tattalin arziki game da tasirin canjin yanayi, da kuma hanawa ko sauƙaƙe waɗannan tasirin. Wadannan binciken na iya amfani da kowane dalili mai zuwa: :

• kimanta yiwuwar jimlar tattalin arzikin duniya na canjin yanayi (watau lalacewar yanayi na duniya)
• kimanta farashin tattalin arziki na bangarori ko yanki na canjin yanayi (misali farashin bangaren noma ko ayyukan makamashi)
• kimanta farashin tattalin arziki na sauƙaƙewa da aiwatar da dabarun sauyin yanayi da daidaitawa (yana bambanta da manufofi da matakan aikin da ake buƙata); duba kuma tattalin arzikin sauyin yanayi.
• samar da tasirin da aka tsara ga al'umma ta hanyar ƙarin tan na hayaki na carbon (farashin zamantakewa na carbon)
• sanar da yanke shawara game da dabarun kula da yanayi na duniya (ta hanyar cibiyoyin Majalisar Dinkin Duniya) ko yanke shawara na manufofi a wasu ƙasashe

Tasirin tattalin arziki na canjin yanayi ya haɗa da duk wani ragewa (alal misali, iyakance matsakaicin zafin jiki na duniya a ƙasa da 2 ° C) ko daidaitawa (alaltar, gina tsaron ambaliyar ruwa) da kasashe ko kungiyoyin kasashe suka yi amfani da su, wanda zai iya haifar da sakamakon tattalin arziki. Har ila yau, suna la'akari da cewa wasu yankuna ko bangarori suna amfana daga ƙananan matakan dumama, misali ta hanyar ƙananan buƙatun makamashi ko fa'idodin noma a wasu kasuwanni.  

Akwai manufofi masu yawa (da daidaituwa na manufofi) la'akari da sha'awa. Misali, a wasu yankuna, manufofi da aka tsara don rage canjin yanayi na iya ba da gudummawa ga wasu manufofi na Ci gaba mai ɗorewa, kamar kawar da tallafin man fetur wanda zai rage gurɓataccen iska kuma ta haka ne ya ceci rayuka. Gudanar da man fetur na burbushin halittu na duniya kai tsaye ya kai dala biliyan 319 a cikin 2017, da kuma dala tiriliyan 5.2 lokacin da farashin kai tsaye kamar gurɓataccen iska ke farashi a cikin. A wasu yankuna, farashin rage canjin yanayi na iya karkatar da albarkatun daga sauran saka hannun jari masu fa'ida ga zamantakewa da muhalli (farashin damar manufofin canjin yanayi).  

Nau'o'in tsarin tattalin arziki

Ana amfani da kayan aikin tattalin arziki daban-daban don fahimtar bangarorin tattalin arziki game da tasirin canjin yanayi, Rage canjin yanayi da daidaitawa. Akwai kayan aiki da yawa ko hanyoyin da za su iya amfani da su. Ana amfani da samfuran Econometric (model na kididdiga) don haɗa tasirin canjin yanayi tare da sauran direbobi na tattalin arziki, don ƙididdige farashin tattalin arziki da kimanta darajar manufofin da suka shafi yanayi, sau da yawa don takamaiman bangare ko yanki. Tsarin tattalin arziki yana kallon kasuwa da tasirin da ba na kasuwa ba wanda ke shafar duk tattalin arzikin ta hanyar shigarwa da fitarwa. Misalai na tsari suna kwaikwayon tsarin jiki, sunadarai da na halitta a ƙarƙashin canjin yanayi, da tasirin tattalin arziki.: 2495