Canjin Duniya

Canjin Duniya
Bayanai
Ƙaramin ɓangare na	canji
Karatun ta	climatology, global change biology (en) da change impact analysis (en)

Canjin Duniya a cikin ma'ana mai zurfi yana nufin canje-canje na duniya a cikin tsarin Duniya. Ana amfani dashi akai-akai don haɗawa da canje-canje iri-iri da ke da alaƙa da saurin karuwa a cikin ayyukan ɗan adam wanda ya fara a tsakiyar karni na 20, watau, Babban Saurin. Duk da yake ra'ayin ya samo asali ne daga bincike kan Canjin yanayi, ana amfani da shi don karɓar ra'ayi mai zurfi game da canje-canjen da aka lura. Canjin duniya yana nufin canje-canje na tsarin Duniya, wanda aka bi da shi gaba ɗaya tare da hulɗar abubuwan da ke cikin jiki da halitta da kuma tasirin da al'ummomin ɗan adam ke da shi a kan abubuwan da aka haɗa kuma akasin haka. Sabili da haka, ana nazarin canje-canje ta hanyar kimiyyar tsarin duniya.

Tarihin binciken canjin duniya

Kokarin farko na duniya don magance tasirin muhalli na ayyukan ɗan adam akan muhalli a duk duniya ya kasance kafin a gabatar da manufar canjin duniya. Mafi mahimmanci, a cikin 1972 an gudanar da Taron Majalisar Dinkin Duniya kan Muhalli na Dan Adam a Stockholm, wanda ya haifar da Shirin Muhalli na Majalisar Dinkinobho. Duk da yake kokarin ya kasance na duniya kuma an yi la'akari da tasirin a duk faɗin duniya, tsarin tsarin duniya bai riga ya bunkasa ba a wannan lokacin. Abubuwan da suka faru, duk da haka, sun fara jerin abubuwan da suka haifar da fitowar fagen binciken canjin duniya.

An kirkiro manufar canjin duniya yayin da masu bincike da ke binciken canjin yanayi suka fara cewa ba kawai yanayin ba har ma da sauran abubuwan da ke cikin tsarin duniya suna canzawa da sauri, wanda za'a iya ba da gudummawa ga ayyukan ɗan adam kuma suna bin yanayin da ya yi kama da sauye-sauyen al'umma da yawa. Ya samo asali ne daga Shirin Binciken Yanayi na Duniya, ko WCRP, shirin kasa da kasa a karkashin jagorancin Peter Bolin, wanda a lokacin da aka kafa shi a 1980 ya mai da hankali kan tantance ko yanayin yana canzawa, ana iya hango shi kuma ya sa mutane su haifar da canji. Sakamakon farko ba wai kawai ya tabbatar da tasirin ɗan adam ba amma ya haifar da fahimtar babban sabon abu na canjin duniya. Daga baya Peter Bolin tare da James McCarthy, Paul Crutzen, Hans Oeschger da sauransu sun fara Shirin Geosphere-Biosphere na Duniya, ko IGBP, a karkashin tallafin Majalisar Kimiyya ta Duniya.

A shekara ta 2001, a Amsterdam, an gudanar da wani taro da aka mayar da hankali kan manyan shirye-shiryen bincike na canjin duniya guda hudu a lokacin: WCRP, IGBP, Shirin Dimensions na Duniya (IHDP) da Diversitas (yanzu ya ci gaba a matsayin Duniya ta gaba). Taron ya kasance mai taken Challenges of a Changing Earth: Global Change Open Science Conference kuma an kammala shi tare da The Amsterdam Declaration on Global Change, mafi kyawun taƙaitawa a cikin sakin layi na farko: Samfuri:Quote frame

Dalilan da suka haifar

A baya, manyan direbobi na canje-canje na duniya sun kasance bambancin hasken rana, tectonics na farantin, volcanism, yaduwa da raguwar rayuwa, tasirin meteorite, raguwar albarkatu, canje-canje a cikin yanayin duniya a kusa da Sun, da canje-canje cikin karkatawar Duniya a kan axis. Akwai shaidu masu yawa cewa yanzu babban abin da ke haifar da canjin duniya shine karuwar bukatar mutane don albarkatu; wasu masana da masana kimiyya sun bayyana wannan sabon abu a matsayin zamanin anthropocene. A cikin shekaru 250 da suka gabata, canjin da mutum ya haifar ya hanzarta kuma ya haifar da Canjin yanayi, lalacewar nau'ikan halittu, rushewar kifi, hamada, ƙarancin teku, raguwar ozone, gurɓataccen yanayi, da sauran manyan sauye-sauye. Bincike na baya-bayan nan ya nuna cewa dumama da mutum ya haifar ya kai 1.14 ° C (range: 0.9 zuwa 1.4 ° C) matsakaici a cikin shekaru goma na 2013-2022 da 1.26 ° C (rang: 1.0 zuwa 1.6 ° C) a cikin 2022. A wannan lokacin, dumama da mutum ya haifar yana ƙaruwa a matakin da ba a taɓa gani ba sama da 0.2 ° C a kowace shekara goma. Wannan hanzarin an danganta shi da hayakin iskar gas mai yawa, matsakaicin 54 ± 5.3 GtCO2e a kowace shekara, tare da raguwar tasirin sanyaya na aerosol.

Masana kimiyya da ke aiki a kan Shirin Geosphere-Biosphere na Duniya sun ce Duniya yanzu tana aiki a cikin "babu analog". Ma'auni na tsarin tsarin duniya, na baya da na yanzu, sun haifar da kammalawa cewa duniyar ta motsa sosai a waje da kewayon bambancin yanayi a cikin rabin shekaru miliyan da suka gabata aƙalla. Homo sapiens sun kasance kusan shekaru 300,000.

Shaidar jiki

Jerin lokaci na duniya guda shida daga duniyarmu a cikin bayanai da kuma hasken rana

Mutane koyaushe suna canza mahallinsu. Zuwan aikin gona kusan shekaru 10,000 da suka gabata ya haifar da canji mai mahimmanci a cikin amfani da ƙasa wanda har yanzu ke ci gaba. Amma, ƙananan yawan mutane ba su da tasiri sosai a duniya har zuwa farkon Juyin Juya Halin Masana'antu a cikin 1750. Wannan taron, wanda ya biyo bayan kirkirar tsarin Haber-Bosch a cikin 1909, wanda ya ba da damar samar da taki mai yawa, ya haifar da sauye-sauye kai tsaye ga yawancin mahimman tsarin jiki, sunadarai da halittu na duniya.

Shekaru na 1950 sun nuna canji a cikin kayan aiki: canjin duniya ya fara hanzarta. Tsakanin 1950 da 2010, yawan jama'a ya ninka fiye da sau biyu. A wannan lokacin, saurin fadada kasuwancin duniya tare da haɓakawa a cikin babban birnin da sabbin fasahohi, musamman fasahar bayanai da sadarwa, ya haifar da tattalin arzikin ƙasa ya zama cikakke. Akwai karuwar sau goma a cikin ayyukan tattalin arziki kuma Yawan mutane duniya sun zama masu alaƙa sosai fiye da kowane lokaci. Lokacin ya ga karuwar sau shida a cikin amfani da ruwa da madatsar kogi. Kimanin kashi 70 cikin 100 na albarkatun ruwa na duniya yanzu ana amfani da su don noma. Wannan ya karu zuwa kashi 90 cikin dari a Indiya da China. Rabin ƙasar duniya yanzu an yi amfani da ita. A shekara ta 2010, yawan mutanen birane, a karo na farko, ya wuce yawan mutanen karkara. Kuma an sami karuwar sau biyar a cikin amfani da taki. Lalle ne, ƙera nitrogen mai amsawa daga samar da taki da masana'antu yanzu sun wuce samar da nitrogen mai amsa a duniya. Ba tare da taki na wucin gadi ba za a sami isasshen abinci don ci gaba da yawan mutane biliyan bakwai ba.

Wadannan canje-canje ga tsarin ɗan adam suna da tasiri kai tsaye a kan dukkan abubuwan da ke cikin tsarin Duniya. Abubuwan sunadarai na yanayi sun canza sosai. Haɗuwa da mahimman iskar gas, carbon dioxide, methane da nitrous oxide suna tashi da sauri. A kan Antarctica babban rami a cikin layin ozone ya bayyana. Kifi ya rushe: yawancin kifi na duniya yanzu an yi amfani da su sosai ko kuma an yi amfani dashi sosai. Kashi talatin cikin dari na gandun daji na wurare masu zafi sun ɓace.

A shekara ta 2000, masanin kimiyya wanda ya lashe kyautar Nobel Paul Crutzen ya sanar da cewa sikelin canji yana da girma sosai cewa a cikin shekaru 250 kawai, al'ummar ɗan adam sun tura duniya cikin sabon zamanin ilimin ƙasa: Anthropocene . Wannan sunan ya makale kuma akwai kira ga Anthropocene da za a karɓa a hukumance. Idan haka ne, yana iya zama mafi ƙanƙanta daga dukkan lokutan geological. Shaida ta nuna cewa idan ayyukan ɗan adam suka ci gaba da canza abubuwan da ke cikin tsarin Duniya, waɗanda duk suna da alaƙa, wannan na iya ɗaga tsarin Duniya daga jiha ɗaya zuwa sabon jiha.

Jama'a

Canjin duniya a cikin yanayin al'umma ya ƙunshi canjin zamantakewa, al'adu, fasaha, siyasa, tattalin arziki da shari'a. Kalmomin da ke da alaƙa da canjin duniya da al'umma sune hada-hadar duniya da haɗin kai na duniya. Duniyar duniya ta fara ne da cinikayya mai nisa da birni. Rubuce-rubuce na farko na hanyoyin kasuwanci masu nisa shine a cikin karni na uku BC. Sumerians a Mesopotamiya sun yi ciniki tare da mazauna a Kwarin Indus, a Indiya ta zamani.

Tun daga 1750, amma mafi mahimmanci, tun daga shekarun 1950, haɗin duniya ya hanzarta. Wannan zamanin ya ga canje-canje masu ban mamaki na duniya a cikin sadarwa, sufuri, da fasahar kwamfuta. Ra'ayoyi, al'adu, mutane, kayayyaki, ayyuka da kuɗi suna tafiya a duniya cikin sauƙi. Wannan sabon haɗin duniya da kuma kwararar bayanai kyauta ya canza ra'ayoyin wasu al'adu, rikice-rikice, addinai da taboos. Yanzu, ƙungiyoyin zamantakewa na iya kuma suna yin tsari a sikelin duniya.

Shaida, idan ana buƙatar ƙarin, game da alaƙar da ke tsakanin canjin zamantakewa da muhalli na duniya ya zo ne tare da Rikicin kudi na 2008. Rikicin ya tura manyan manyan manyan hukumomin tattalin arziki na duniya, Amurka, Turai da yawancin Asiya cikin Babban Mawuyacin hali. Dangane da Global Carbon Project, hayakin yanayi na duniya na carbon dioxide ya fadi daga ci gaban shekara-shekara na kusan 3.4% tsakanin 2000 da 2008, zuwa ci gaban kusan 2% a cikin 2008.

Al'ummomi a ko'ina suna fuskantar ƙalubalen da ba a taɓa gani ba sakamakon saurin canjin duniya (ciki har da canjin yanayi). A cikin irin wannan mahallin akwai buƙatar ba da gudummawa ga tsarin ilmantarwa na zamantakewa da kuma hanyoyin ilmantarwa masu kyau. Ta hanyar wannan mayar da hankali, aikin Shugaban yana ba da gudummawa wajen inganta iyawa don ci gaban yanayi mai dorewa, al'umma mai adalci a Afirka ta Kudu da Afirka a ko'ina. Bugu da ƙari, masana sun jaddada cewa canjin yanayi yana da alaƙa da rashin daidaito na duniya. Kasashe masu masana'antu, waɗanda suka ba da gudummawa mafi yawa ga hayakin gas na tarihi, galibi suna da kayan aiki don daidaitawa, yayin da ƙasashe masu karamin kuɗi, bayan sun ba da guddina kaɗan, suna fama da mummunar sakamako. Wannan rashin daidaituwa yana haifar da damuwa game da ɗabi'a kuma yana jaddada buƙatar adalci na yanayi a tattaunawar manufofin duniya.  

Gudanar da Duniya

Mutane suna canza yanayin halittu na duniya a hanyar da ba a tsara ta ba tare da iyakantaccen ilimin sakamakon. Ba tare da matakai don sarrafa tsarin Duniya yadda ya kamata ba - abubuwan jiki, sunadarai, halittu da zamantakewar duniya - mai yiwuwa za a sami mummunar tasiri ga mutane da yanayin halittu. Wataƙila babbar damuwa ita ce wani bangare na tsarin Duniya, alal misali, yaduwar teku, gandun daji na Amazon, ko kankara ta teku ta Arctic, za ta kai wani wuri kuma ta juya daga jihar ta yanzu zuwa wata jiha: gudana zuwa ba ta gudana, gandun dajin zuwa Savanna, ko kankare zuwa babu kankara. Sakamakon domino na iya biyo baya tare da wasu abubuwan da ke cikin tsarin duniya da ke canza yanayin da sauri.

Bincike mai zurfi a cikin shekaru 20 da suka gabata ya nuna cewa akwai maki masu tasowa a cikin tsarin Duniya, kuma canji mai yawa na iya zama da sauri - al'amarin shekaru da yawa. An gano wuraren da za a iya amfani da su kuma an yi ƙoƙari don ƙididdige ƙofofi. Amma har zuwa yau, mafi kyawun ƙoƙari na iya gano kawai "ƙayyadaddun duniya" da aka bayyana a bayyane wanda ya wuce inda akwai maki amma ainihin wuraren su sun kasance ba su da tabbas.

An yi kira ga hanya mafi kyau don sarrafa muhalli a kan sikelin duniya, wani lokacin ana kiransa sarrafa "tsarin tallafin rayuwa na Duniya". An kafa Majalisar Dinkin Duniya don dakatar da yaƙe-yaƙe da samar da dandamali don tattaunawa tsakanin ƙasashe. Ba a halicce shi ba don kauce wa babban bala'in muhalli a kan yanki ko ma'auni na duniya. Amma akwai tarurruka da yawa na muhalli na kasa da kasa a karkashin Majalisar Dinkin Duniya, gami da Yarjejeniyar Tsarin Mulki kan Canjin Yanayi, Yarjejeniyar Montreal, Yarjejeniya don Yaki da Yaki, da Yarjejeniya kan Bambancin Halitta. Bugu da ƙari, Majalisar Dinkin Duniya tana da hukumomi biyu da ake tuhuma da daidaita ayyukan muhalli da ci gaba, Shirin Muhalli na Majalisar Dinkinobho (UNEP) da Shirin Ci Gaban Majalisar Dinkin Duniya (UNDP).

A shekara ta 2004, IGBP ta buga "Canjin Duniya da Tsarin Duniya, duniyar da ke ƙarƙashin matsin lamba. " Takaitaccen taƙaitaccen littafin ya kammala: "Ana buƙatar dabarun gaba ɗaya, cikakke, na ciki don kula da tsarin Duniya". Ya bayyana cewa burin bincike shine bayyanawa da kula da daidaito mai ɗorewa a cikin yanayin duniya.

A shekara ta 2007, Faransa ta yi kira da a maye gurbin UNEP da sabuwar kungiya mai karfi da ake kira "Ƙungiyar Muhalli ta Majalisar Dinkin Duniya". Dalilin shi ne cewa matsayin UNEP a matsayin "shirin", maimakon "tsarin" a cikin al'adar Hukumar Lafiya ta Duniya ko Hukumar Kula da Yanayi ta Duniya, ya raunana shi har ya zama bai dace da manufar ba saboda ilimin yanzu game da yanayin duniyar.