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Canjin hanzari

Daga Wikipedia, Insakulofidiya ta kyauta.

One conversation centered on the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue.[1]

 

Canjin hanzari
Bayanai
Ƙaramin ɓangare na technological change (en) Fassara

A cikin Nazarin nan gaba da tarihin fasaha, hanzarta canji shine yanayin da aka lura na Canjin fasaha a cikin tarihin kwanan nan, wanda zai iya ba da shawarar sauyawa da sauri da zurfi a nan gaba kuma yana iya ko bazai kasance tare da canjin zamantakewa da al'adu ba.

Abubuwan da aka gani na farko

[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]

A cikin 1910, a lokacin taron tsara gari na London, Daniel Burnham ya lura, "Amma ba kawai a cikin adadin hujjoji ko nau'ikan ilimi ba ne cewa ci gaba ya kasance: har yanzu ya fi dacewa da rabo na ƙwarewa, a cikin fadada ilimin lissafi, wanda kowace shekara ke ɗaukar kashi mafi girma na mutane yayin da lokaci ke ci gaba. " Kuma daga baya, "Wannan gardamar ce da na fara, cewa babban canji ya zo a cikin shekaru hamsin da za mu sami saurin ci gaba da yawa, kuma jikokinmu su yi sauri sosai, 'ya' ya sa' ya hanzarta sosai, kuma jikinsu da yawa. "[2]

A cikin 1938, Buckminster Fuller ya gabatar da kalmar ephemeralization don bayyana yanayin "yi da yawa tare da ƙasa" a cikin ilmin sunadarai, kiwon lafiya da sauran fannoni na Ci gaban masana'antu. A shekara ta 1946, Fuller ya buga ginshiƙi na abubuwan da aka gano na sunadarai a tsawon lokaci don nuna ci gaban hanzarta hanzari a cikin samun ilimin ɗan adam.

A tsakiyar karni, ga Arnold J. Toynbee "ba labarin bangaskiya ba ne" amma "bayani ne na lura da tarihin gogewa" cewa tarihi yana hanzarta, kuma "a cikin hanzarta".

A shekara ta 1958, Stanislaw Ulam ya rubuta game da tattaunawa da John von Neumann:

Yaran MoravecZuciya Yara

[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]

A cikin jerin labaran da aka buga daga 1974 zuwa 1979, sannan kuma a cikin littafinsa na 1988 Mind Children, masanin kimiyyar kwamfuta kuma mai hangen nesa Hans Moravec ya tsara Dokar Moore don yin tsinkaya game da makomar rayuwar wucin gadi. Dokar Moore ta bayyana tsarin ci gaba mai yawa a cikin rikitarwa na hadadden da'irorin semiconductor. Moravec ya faɗaɗa wannan don haɗawa da fasahohi tun kafin haɗin da'irar zuwa nau'ikan fasaha na gaba. Moravec ya tsara jerin lokuta da kuma wani labari [3] wanda robots za su samo asali cikin sabon jerin nau'in wucin gadi, farawa a kusa da 2030-2040. [4][5]

Haɗin James BurkeHaɗin kai

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James Burke ya gabatar da tambaya game da abin da ke faruwa lokacin da wannan ƙimar kirkire-kirkire, ko kuma mafi mahimmanci ya canza kansa, ya zama da yawa ga matsakaicin mutum don sarrafawa, da kuma abin da wannan ke nufi ga ikon mutum, 'yanci, da sirri.

Ƙayyadaddun hanzarta canji

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A cikin kimiyyar halitta, yana da kyau cewa matakai da ke nuna hanzari a cikin matakan farko suna shiga cikin lokacin saturation. Wannan a bayyane yake yana ba da damar fahimtar cewa idan an lura da karuwa tare da hanzari a wani lokaci, wannan ba yana nufin ci gaba mara iyaka na wannan tsari ba. Akasin haka, a lokuta da yawa wannan yana nufin fita da wuri zuwa filin gudu. Hanyoyin da ke faruwa a kimiyyar halitta suna ba mu damar ba da shawarar cewa hoton da aka lura na hanzarta ci gaban kimiyya da fasaha, bayan wani lokaci (a cikin matakai na zahiri, a matsayin doka, gajere ne) za a maye gurbinsa da raguwa da cikakken tsayawa. Duk da yiwuwar dakatar da / raguwar hanzarin ci gaban kimiyya da fasaha a nan gaba, ci gaba kanta, kuma a sakamakon haka, sauye-sauyen zamantakewa, ba za su tsaya ba ko ma raguwa - zai ci gaba da saurin da aka samu (watakila babba), wanda ya zama dindindin.[1]

Canjin hanzarin ba za a iyakance shi ba ga Anthropocene Epoch, [6] amma fasalin ci gaban sararin samaniya na gaba ɗaya. Hanyoyin jiki waɗanda ke haifar da hanzari kamar dokar Moore sune madauki masu kyau waɗanda ke haifar le canjin fasaha mai yawa ko mai yawa.[7] Wadannan ƙarfin suna haifar da ingantaccen tsari mai zurfi na sararin samaniya, lokaci, makamashi, da kuma al'amari (STEM inganci da yawa, ko STEM "compression"). [8] A iyakar jiki, wannan tsarin ci gaba na hanzarta canji yana haifar da ƙungiyoyin ƙididdigar ramin baki, ƙaddamarwa kuma ta hanyar nazarin iyakar ƙididdigari a sararin samaniya.[9]

Yin amfani da wannan hangen nesa ga binciken basira na waje yana haifar da ra'ayin cewa rayuwa mai basira ta sake daidaita kanta a cikin ramin baki. Irin waɗannan siffofin rayuwa masu ci gaba za su kasance masu sha'awar sararin samaniya na ciki, maimakon sararin samaniya da fadada tsakanin taurari.[10] Don haka za su wuce gaskiyar, ba za a iya lura da su ba kuma zai zama mafita ga rikice-rikicen Fermi da ake kira "tsinkaye na juyawa". [8] Wani bayani shi ne cewa ramukan baki da muke kallo za a iya fassara su a matsayin manyan wayewa masu basira da ke cin abinci a kan taurari, ko "masu cinye taurari".[11] Wannan yanayin juyin halitta da ci gaba gayyata ce don nazarin sararin samaniya kanta kamar yadda yake ci gaba, ci gaba.[12] Idan sararin samaniya wani nau'i ne na superorganism, yana iya haifar da haifuwa, ta halitta ko ta wucin gadi, tare da rayuwa mai basira da ke taka rawa. [13][14][15][16]

Sauran ƙididdiga

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Canje-canje masu ban mamaki a cikin ci gaban tattalin arziki sun faru a baya saboda wasu ci gaban fasaha. Dangane da ci gaban yawan jama'a, tattalin arzikin ya ninka sau biyu a kowace shekara 250,000 daga zamanin Paleolithic har zuwa Juyin Juya Halin Neolithic. Sabon tattalin arzikin noma ya ninka sau biyu a kowace shekara 900, karuwa mai ban mamaki. A zamanin yanzu, farawa da juyin juya halin masana'antu, samar da tattalin arzikin duniya ya ninka sau biyu a kowace shekara goma sha biyar, sau sittin da sauri fiye da lokacin aikin gona. Idan hauhawar basirar mutum ta haifar da irin wannan juyin juya hali, in ji Robin Hanson, to mutum zai sa ran tattalin arziki ya ninka aƙalla kwata-kwata kuma mai yiwuwa a kowane mako.

A cikin littafinsa na 1981 Critical Path, mai ba da labari da mai kirkiro R. Buckminster Fuller ya kiyasta cewa idan muka ɗauki duk ilimin da ɗan adam ya tara kuma ya watsa ta shekara Ɗaya AZ daidai da ɗayan bayanai, mai yiwuwa ya ɗauki kimanin shekaru 1500 (ko har zuwa ƙarni na sha shida) don wannan adadin ilimin ya ninka. Sauye-sauye na gaba na ilimi daga biyu zuwa hudu "ƙungiyoyin ilimi" ya ɗauki shekaru 250 kawai, har zuwa kimanin 1750 AZ. A shekara ta 1900, shekaru ɗari da hamsin bayan haka, ilimi ya sake ninkawa zuwa raka'a 8. Saurin da aka lura wanda bayanai suka ninka sau biyu yana samun sauri da sauri.

Tattaunawa

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Dukansu Theodore Modis da Jonathan Huebner sun yi jayayya - kowannensu daga ra'ayoyi daban-daban - cewa yawan sabbin fasahohi ba wai kawai ya daina tashi ba, amma a zahiri yanzu yana raguwa.[17]

Dubi kuma

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Manazarta

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  1. ↑ Ulam, Stanislaw (May 1958). "Tribute to John von Neumann". Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society. 64, nr 3, part 2: 5.
  2. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named Transactions
  3. ↑ R. Buckminster Fuller, Nine Chains to the Moon, Southern Illinois University Press [1938] 1963 pp. 276–79.
  4. ↑ R. Buckminster Fuller, Synergetics (Fuller), http://www.rwgrayprojects.com/synergetics/s04/figs/f1903.html
  5. ↑ R. Buckminster Fuller, Nine Chains to the Moon, Southern Illinois University Press [1938] 1963 pp. 276–79.
  6. ↑ R. Buckminster Fuller, Nine Chains to the Moon, Southern Illinois University Press [1938] 1963 pp. 276–79.
  7. ↑ R. Buckminster Fuller, Synergetics (Fuller), http://www.rwgrayprojects.com/synergetics/s04/figs/f1903.html
  8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 Smart, J. M. (2012). "The Transcension Hypothesis: Sufficiently advanced civilizations invariably leave our universe, and implications for METI and SETI". Acta Astronautica. 78: 55–68. Bibcode:2012AcAau..78...55S. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.695.2737. doi:10.1016/j.actaastro.2011.11.006. ISSN 0094-5765. Archived from the original on 2013-09-22. Retrieved 2014-01-04.
  9. ↑ R. Buckminster Fuller, Nine Chains to the Moon, Southern Illinois University Press [1938] 1963 pp. 276–79.
  10. ↑ R. Buckminster Fuller, Nine Chains to the Moon, Southern Illinois University Press [1938] 1963 pp. 276–79.
  11. ↑ R. Buckminster Fuller, Nine Chains to the Moon, Southern Illinois University Press [1938] 1963 pp. 276–79.
  12. ↑ R. Buckminster Fuller, Synergetics (Fuller), http://www.rwgrayprojects.com/synergetics/s04/figs/f1903.html
  13. ↑ R. Buckminster Fuller, Nine Chains to the Moon, Southern Illinois University Press [1938] 1963 pp. 276–79.
  14. ↑ R. Buckminster Fuller, Nine Chains to the Moon, Southern Illinois University Press [1938] 1963 pp. 276–79.
  15. ↑ R. Buckminster Fuller, Nine Chains to the Moon, Southern Illinois University Press [1938] 1963 pp. 276–79.
  16. ↑ R. Buckminster Fuller, Nine Chains to the Moon, Southern Illinois University Press [1938] 1963 pp. 276–79.
  17. ↑ Korotayev, Andrey (2018). "The 21st Century Singularity and its Big History Implications: A re-analysis". Journal of Big History. 2 (3): 71–118. doi:10.22339/jbh.v2i3.2320.
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