Canjin yanayi a Jordan
 Canjin yanayi a Jordan | |
|---|---|
adaptations to climate change by country or territory (en)  | |
| Bayanai | |
| Ƙaramin ɓangare na | Daidaituwar canjin yanayi |
| Ƙasa | Jordan |
Canjin yanayi yana da tasiri mai yawa a Jordan, gami da albarkatun ruwa da suka riga sun ragu. Yawan zafin jiki yana ƙaruwa yana shafar yanayin da ya riga ya fi zafi da bushewa, kuma yana tare da fari, matsanancin yanayin zafi, rushewar ƙasa da ambaliyar ruwa.[1] Abubuwan da ke cikin ruwa a Jordan ba su da yawa. Baya ga saurin karuwar yawan jama'a, tasirin canjin yanayi na iya kara tsananta matsalar. Yanayin zafi zai karu kuma jimlar ruwan sama na shekara-shekara zai iya raguwa, duk da haka tare da rabo mai kyau na rashin tabbas. Saboda haka, ayyukan da ke akwai da sababbin ayyuka tare da manufar rage gibin tsakanin samar da ruwa da buƙata suna taimakawa wajen daidaita Jordan da yanayin gobe. Wannan na iya kasancewa tare da ayyukan da ke inganta ikon Jordan don saka idanu da tsara bayanan yanayi da ruwa da kuma tantance nasa rauni ga canjin yanayi.
Jordan ta sanya hannu kuma ta tabbatar da Yarjejeniyar Paris . [2] Ya sabunta gudummawar sa ta farko a cikin kasa a cikin 2021.[3]
Tasirin yanayi
[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]Yanayin zafi da sauye-sauyen yanayi
[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]Yawancin yankin Jordan an rarraba shi a matsayin hamada. Lokacin bazara yawanci yana da zafi kuma ya bushe, yayin da hunturu na iya zama sanyi a wasu yankuna. Ruwan sama na shekara-shekara ya bambanta daga kadan fiye da 30 mm a yankunan hamada har zuwa 572 mm a cikin tuddai arewa maso yammacin Jordan. Kusan duk ruwan sama yana faɗuwa tsakanin Oktoba da Mayu. A cikin Kwarin Urdun, hunturu yana da sauƙi kuma lokacin rani yana da zafi sosai, tare da ruwan sama kaɗan a duk shekara.
Sadarwar Kasa ta Biyu ta Jordan ta haɗa da babi game da canjin yanayi da aka lura da kuma tsarawa a cikin ƙasar. Game da baya, an kimanta bayanai na lokacin 1961-2005 (ko kuma mafi ƙanƙanta a wasu lokuta) na tashoshin yanayi 19 a duk faɗin Jordan tare da sakamakon da ke biyowa:
- Mafi ƙarancin zafin jiki ya karu da 0.4-2.8 °C, matsakaicin zafin jiki da 0.3-1.8 ° C.
- Tashoshin 13 suna nuna raguwar ruwan sama na shekara-shekara da 5-20%. Tashoshin shida sun sami karuwa da kashi 5-10%.
- Adadin kwanakin ruwan sama ya ragu da kashi 3-10% a mafi yawan tashoshin
- A mafi yawan tashoshin, zafi ya ragu yayin da evaporation ya karu
Wani binciken ya zo da irin wannan sakamako. Yin amfani da bayanai daga shekarun 30-83 da suka gabata daga tashoshin yanayi guda shida a Jordan, mafi ƙarancin zafin jiki ya karu yayin da matsakaicin zafin jiki bai canza sosai ba. Game da jimlar ruwan sama na shekara-shekara duk da haka, babu wani canjin canji da ake gani.
Bayanan da aka tattara daga tashoshin 19 sun yi aiki a matsayin tushe kuma an kwatanta su da tushe da aka cire daga 13 General Circulation Models (GCMs), waɗanda samfuran ƙyama ne da Kwamitin Intergovernmental ya yi amfani da su kan Canjin Yanayi don tsara canjin yanayi a matakin duniya. An yi amfani da GCM guda uku waɗanda maki na grid ɗin da suka fi dacewa da yankin binciken don tsara yanayin don lokacin 2005-2050. Sakamakon sune:
- Dukkanin samfuran suna tsara karuwar zafin jiki da kimanin 1-1.3 °C nan da shekara ta 2050. Ana sa ran zafin jiki zai fi karfi a cikin watanni na rani.
- Game da hazo, samfuran ba su yarda ba. Ɗaya daga cikin samfuran yana nuna karuwar hazo daga Oktoba zuwa Mayu da raguwa a lokacin rani. Wani samfurin yana tsara raguwa daga Nuwamba zuwa Afrilu kuma samfurin na uku yana tsara ƙarin ruwan sama a cikin watanni Fabrairu zuwa Mayu da Disamba kuma ƙasa da ruwan sama a duk sauran watanni.
Sadarwar Kasa ta Biyu ta maimaita iyakokin da aka fuskanta yayin shirye-shiryen yanayin yanayi. Baya ga rashin tabbas da ya haifar da ƙarancin ƙuduri na GCMs da ci gaban fitarwa mara kyau, an ba da rahoton bayanan lura ba cikakke ba ne. Bayanai a cikin jerin lokutan yau da kullun da na kowane wata sun ɓace a yawancin tashoshin yanayi. Bugu da ƙari, an bayyana ingancin bayanan ruwa da ke akwai a matsayin wani ɓangare mara kyau. A cewar sadarwa,
- "tsarin sa ido na yanayi da na ruwa a kasar yana fuskantar matsaloli na dindindin a cikin aiki, jinkirin sabunta kayan aiki da rage cibiyar sa ido".
Tashar Bayanan Canjin Yanayi ta Banki ta Duniya tana nuna sakamakon da suka yi kama da na Sadarwar Kasa ta Biyu. An zaɓi wurare biyar a sassa daban-daban na Jordan (adadi na 1). Canjin yanayi na lokacin 2030-2049 an tsara shi ta hanyar GCMs da yawa. Kayan aikin yana nuna adadin GCMs da suka yarda da hanyar canji, kamar yadda aka nuna a cikin teburin da ke ƙasa.
Projection (2030 - 2049 vs. 1980-1999)
|
Number of models projecting the same change
| |
| Matsakaicin Ruwan Sama na Shekara | -11% to -18%
|
14 to 19 out of 20
|
| Runoff | -20% to -21%
|
2 out of 12
|
| Matsakaicin zafin shekara-shekara | +2 °C
|
--
|
| Rashin ruwan sama na yau da kullun | +4% to +6%
|
6 to 7 out of 8
|
| Kwanaki Masu Ruwa | -5 to +4 days
|
4 to 6 out of 8
|
Dangane da tashar bayanai, ana sa ran zafin jiki zai karu a duk wurare. Ana sa ran ruwan sama zai ragu a duk wurare ta yawancin samfuran, amma akwai wani rashin tabbas a Amman, Aqaba da Ma'an, inda kusan kashi uku cikin hudu na samfuran suka yarda. Ana sa ran yawan ruwan sama zai karu da akalla kashi uku cikin hudu na samfuran a duk wurare. Sakamakon game da kwanakin bushewa a jere ba su da tabbas tare da rabin samfuran da ke nuna ƙarin kuma ɗayan rabin ba su da kwanakin bushe a jere. Da alama akwai kuskure game da runoff, tunda tashar bayanai tana nuna bayanai marasa yiwuwa game da rashin tabbas
Don kammala, ci gaban da ya fi bayyane shine karuwar yanayin zafi. Jimlar ruwan sama na shekara-shekara na iya raguwa, amma akwai wani bangare mai mahimmanci na rashin tabbas. Rashin ruwan sama na iya ƙaruwa. Yanayin fari ba shi da tabbas. Tare da kalubalen tsarin yanayi na yanzu, wannan rashin tabbas yana ba da shawarar cikakken bincike mai yiwuwa ya haɗa da ci gaban tsarin yanayi na yanki.
Ma'adanai na ruwa
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Sadarwar Kasa ta Biyu ta Jordan ta nuna cewa hauhawar yanayin zafi zai haifar da raguwar ruwa a kalla a cikin koguna biyu na Zarqa da Yarmouk waɗanda aka zaba a matsayin wuraren binciken matukin jirgi. Idan zafin jiki ya tashi da 2 ° C, ko da karuwar hazo da 20% ba zai biya karuwar evaporation wanda ke haifar da raguwar runoff.
Idan aka ba da wannan halin, mai yiwuwa ne cewa canjin yanayi zai haifar da karancin ruwa a Jordan. Bugu da ƙari, ruwan sama mai tsanani zai iya shafar ƙasar. A cikin daki-daki, waɗannan tasirin suna iya zama:
- Ƙarin buƙatar ruwa wanda ya haifar da yanayin zafi
- Rage yawan ruwa a cikin tafkuna
- Rage teburin ruwa na ƙasaTebur na ruwa a karkashin kasa
- Rashin ingancin ruwa wanda ya haifar da karuwar karancin ruwa
- Rashin jituwa tsakanin kungiyoyin masu amfani (aikin noma da wadatar gida, masana'antu, yawon shakatawa)
- Lalacewar ta hanyar ruwan sama mai tsanani
- Ƙarin fari da Ruwa na zafi
Dubi kuma
[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]- Canjin yanayi a Gabas ta Tsakiya da Arewacin Afirka
- Ruwa da tsaftacewa a Jordan
- Makamashi mai sabuntawa a Jordan
Manazarta
[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]- ↑ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (2024). "Vulnerability and Governance in the Context of Climate Change in Jordan".
- ↑ UNFCCC (2024). "Jordan".
- ↑ UNFCCC (2021). "Updated Submissions of Jordan's First Nationally Determined Contribitions" (PDF).