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Canjin yanayi na gaggawa

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Canjin yanayi na gaggawa
Bayanai
Ƙaramin ɓangare na canjin yanayi

Canjin yanayi na kwatsam yana faruwa ne lokacin da aka tilasta tsarin yanayi ya canza a cikin adadin da aka ƙayyade ta hanyar ma'aunin makamashi na tsarin yanayi. Yawan sauyawa ya fi sauri fiye da canjin tilasta waje, kodayake yana iya haɗawa da abubuwan tilasta ba zato ba tsammani kamar Tasirin meteorite. Saboda haka canjin yanayi na gaggawa bambanci ne fiye da canjin yanayi. Abubuwan da suka faru a baya sun haɗa da ƙarshen Ruwan Gidajen Carboniferous, Younger Dryas, Abubuwan da suka faru na Dansgaard-Oeschger, abubuwan da suka gabata na Heinrich kuma mai yiwuwa kuma Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.[1][2] Hakanan ana amfani da kalmar a cikin mahallin canjin yanayi don bayyana canjin yanayi na kwatsam wanda za'a iya ganowa a cikin lokaci-lokaci na rayuwar ɗan adam. Irin wannan canjin yanayi na kwatsam na iya zama sakamakon sake dubawa a cikin tsarin yanayi ko maki a cikin tsarin sauyawa.[3]

Masana kimiyya na iya amfani da ma'auni daban-daban yayin da suke magana game da abubuwan da suka faru ba zato ba tsammani. Misali, tsawon lokacin farkon Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum na iya kasancewa a ko'ina tsakanin 'yan shekarun da suka gabata da dubban shekaru. Idan aka kwatanta, samfuran yanayi suna hasashen cewa a ƙarƙashin hayakin iskar gas mai ɗorewa, yanayin zafi na duniya na kusa na iya tashi daga yanayin bambancin da aka saba da shi a cikin shekaru 150 da suka gabata tun farkon 2047. [4]

Ma'anar

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Za'a iya bayyana Canjin yanayi na gaggawa dangane da kimiyyar lissafi ko dangane da tasirin: "Dangane da kimiyya, sauyawa ne na tsarin yanayi zuwa wani yanayi daban-daban a kan sikelin lokaci wanda ya fi sauri fiye da tilastawa. Dangane da tasirin, canjin gaggawa shine wanda ke faruwa da sauri da ba zato ba tsammani cewa tsarin ɗan adam ko na halitta suna da wahalar daidaitawa da shi. Wadannan ma'anar suna da alaƙa: na baya yana ba da wasu fahimta game da canjin yanayi ba zato ba'ana ba tsammani; wannan ya bayyana dalilin da ya sa akwai bincike da ya sa aka sadaukar da yawa.[5]

Lokaci-lokaci

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Timescales of events described as abrupt may vary dramatically. Changes recorded in the climate of Greenland at the end of the Younger Dryas, as measured by ice-cores, imply a sudden warming of +10 °C (18 °F)* within a timescale of a few years.[6] Other abrupt changes are the +4 °C (7.2 °F)* on Greenland 11,270 years ago[7] or the abrupt +6 °C (11 °F) warming 22,000 years ago on Antarctica.[8]

Sabanin haka, Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum na iya farawa a ko'ina tsakanin 'yan shekarun da suka gabata da dubban shekaru. A ƙarshe, tsarin tsarin Tsarin Duniya wanda a ƙarƙashin hayakin iskar gas mai guba tun daga shekara ta 2047, yanayin zafi na duniya na iya tashi daga kewayon bambancin a cikin shekaru 150 da suka gabata.[4]

Abubuwan da suka faru a baya

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Lokacin Younger Dryas na canjin yanayi na kwatsam ana kiransa bayan furen alpine, Dryas .

An gano lokutan sauyin yanayi na kwatsam a cikin rikodin paleoclimatic. Shahararrun misalai sun haɗa da:

Har ila yau, akwai sauye-sauyen yanayi na kwatsam da ke da alaƙa da lalacewar tabkuna masu dusar ƙanƙara. Ɗaya daga cikin misalai na wannan shine taron 8.2-kiloyear, wanda ke da alaƙa da zubar da Glacial Lake Agassiz . [9] Wani misali shine Antarctic Cold Reversal, c. shekaru 14,500 kafin yanzu (BP), wanda aka yi imanin cewa ya haifar da bugun ruwa mai narkewa mai yiwuwa daga ko dai kankara na Antarctic ko Laurentide Ice Sheet. [10][11] Wadannan abubuwan da suka faru da sauri sun kasance a matsayin dalilin Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles.

Nazarin shekaru biyar da Makarantar Archaeology ta Oxford ta jagoranta kuma Royal Holloway, Jami'ar London, Gidan Tarihi na Tarihi na Jami'ar Oxford, da Cibiyar Nazarin Kayan Kayan Kudancin Southampton suka kammala a 2013 da ake kira "Amsawar Mutane ga Canjin Muhalli" kuma ana kiranta da "RESET" don ganin idan ra'ayin cewa mutane suna da manyan canjin ci gaba a lokacin ko nan da nan bayan canje-canjen yanayi na kwatsam tare da taimakon ilimin da aka cire daga bincike kan yanayin muhalli, tarihin tarihi na teku, tarihin tarihi, shekarun da suka gabata,[12][13] Har ila yau, yana da niyyar hango yiwuwar halayyar ɗan adam a yayin canjin yanayi, da kuma lokacin canjin yanayi [14]

Wani binciken da aka yi a shekarar 2017 ya kammala cewa irin wannan yanayin ga Ramin ozone na Antarctic na yau (rashin sararin samaniya da canje-canje na yanayin ruwa), ~ shekaru 17,700 da suka gabata, lokacin da raguwar ozone na stratospheric ya ba da gudummawa ga hanzarin hanzarin raguwar Kudancin Hemisphere. Wannan taron ya faru ne tare da kimanin shekaru 192 na manyan fashewar dutsen wuta, wanda aka danganta ga Dutsen Takahe a Yammacin Antarctica.[15]

Abubuwan da za su iya zama masu gabatarwa

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Yawancin sauye-sauyen yanayi na kwatsam suna iya zama saboda sauye-shiryen yaduwar kwatsam, kamar ambaliyar ruwa da ke yanke sabon tashar kogi. Misalai mafi sanannun sune rufewa da yawa na Arewacin Tekun Atlantika na Kudancin Kudancin a lokacin zamanin kankara na ƙarshe, yana shafar yanayi a duk duniya.[16]

  • Rashin zafi na yanzu na Arctic, tsawon lokacin bazara, ana ɗaukarsa ba zato ba tsammani kuma mai girma.[17]
  • Rashin ozone na Antarctic ya haifar da canje-canje masu mahimmanci na yaduwar yanayi.[17]
  • Har ila yau, akwai lokuta biyu lokacin da Atlantic's Meridional Overturning Circulation ya rasa wani muhimmin abu na tsaro. Tekun Greenland da ke gudana a 75 ° N ya rufe a 1978, yana murmurewa a cikin shekaru goma masu zuwa.[18] Sa'an nan kuma shafin na biyu mafi girma, Tekun Labrador, ya rufe a cikin 1997 na tsawon shekaru goma. [19][20] Duk da yake ba a ga rufewa a cikin lokaci ba a cikin shekaru 50 na lura, jimlar rufewa da ta gabata tana da mummunar tasirin yanayi a duniya.[16] 

An yi la'akari da cewa haɗin kai - tsarin teku da na yanayi a kan lokuta daban-daban - suna haɗa bangarorin biyu yayin canjin yanayi na kwatsam.[21]

Sakamakon yanayi

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Yankin teku mai duhu yana nuna kashi 6 cikin 100 na hasken rana mai shigowa; kankara na teku yana nuna kashi 50 zuwa 70.[22]

Ɗaya daga cikin tushen tasirin sauyin yanayi na kwatsam shine tsarin ra'ayi, wanda abin da ya faru na dumama ya haifar da canji wanda ya kara da dumama.[23] Haka kuma zai iya amfani da sanyaya. Misalan irin waɗannan hanyoyin ra'ayoyi sune:

  • Sakamakon Ice-albedo wanda ci gaba ko koma baya na rufe kankara yana canza albedo ("farin") na duniya da ikonta na shawo kan makamashi na rana.[24]
  • Ra'ayoyin carbon na ƙasa shine sakin carbon daga ƙasa don mayar da martani ga dumamar duniya.
  • Mutuwa da ƙone gandun daji ta hanyar dumamar duniya.[25]

Halin yiwuwar canjin kwatsam ga wasu abubuwan da suka shafi yanayi na iya zama ƙasa.[26] Abubuwan da zasu iya kara yiwuwar sauyin yanayi na kwatsam sun haɗa da girman dumamar duniya, dumamar da ke faruwa da sauri da dumamar da aka ci gaba a tsawon lokaci.[27]

Abubuwan da ke tattare da shi a cikin tsarin yanayi

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Abubuwan da za su iya canzawa a cikin tsarin yanayi sun haɗa da tasirin yanki na canjin yanayi, wasu daga cikinsu sun fara kwatsam kuma saboda haka ana iya ɗaukar su a matsayin canjin yanayi kwatsam.[28] Masana kimiyya sun bayyana cewa, "Ƙididdigarmu game da ilimin yanzu tana nuna cewa abubuwa masu yawa na iya kaiwa ga mahimmancin su a cikin wannan ƙarni a ƙarƙashin canjin yanayi na ɗan adam".[28]

Manazarta

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Page 'Tipping points in the climate system' not found
  1. ↑ Sahney, S.; Benton, M.J.; Falcon-Lang, H.J. (2010). "Rainforest collapse triggered Pennsylvanian tetrapod diversification in Euramerica". Geology. 38 (12): 1079–1082. Bibcode:2010Geo....38.1079S. doi:10.1130/G31182.1.
  2. ↑ Broecker, W. S. (May 2006). "Geology. Was the Younger Dryas triggered by a flood?". Science. 312 (5777): 1146–1148. doi:10.1126/science.1123253. ISSN 0036-8075. PMID 16728622. S2CID 39544213.
  3. ↑ Rial, J. A.; Pielke Sr., R. A.; Beniston, M.; Claussen, M.; Canadell, J.; Cox, P.; Held, H.; De Noblet-Ducoudré, N.; Prinn, R.; Reynolds, J. F.; Salas, J. D. (2004). "Nonlinearities, Feedbacks and Critical Thresholds within the Earth's Climate System" (PDF). Climatic Change. 65 (1–2): 11–00. Bibcode:2004ClCh...65...11R. doi:10.1023/B:CLIM.0000037493.89489.3f. S2CID 14173232. Archived from the original (PDF) on 9 March 2013. |hdl-access= requires |hdl= (help)
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 Mora, C (2013). "The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability". Nature. 502 (7470): 183–187. Bibcode:2013Natur.502..183M. doi:10.1038/nature12540. PMID 24108050. S2CID 4471413. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name ":1" defined multiple times with different content
  5. ↑ "1: What defines "abrupt" climate change?". LAMONT-DOHERTY EARTH OBSERVATORY. Retrieved 2021-07-08.
  6. ↑ Grachev, A.M.; Severinghaus, J.P. (2005). "A revised +10±4 °C magnitude of the abrupt change in Greenland temperature at the Younger Dryas termination using published GISP2 gas isotope data and air thermal diffusion constants". Quaternary Science Reviews. 24 (5–6): 513–9. Bibcode:2005QSRv...24..513G. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.10.016.
  7. ↑ Kobashi, T.; Severinghaus, J.P.; Barnola, J. (30 April 2008). "4 ± 1.5 °C abrupt warming 11,270 yr ago identified from trapped air in Greenland ice". Earth and Planetary Science Letters. 268 (3–4): 397–407. Bibcode:2008E&PSL.268..397K. doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2008.01.032.
  8. ↑ Taylor, K.C.; White, J; Severinghaus, J; Brook, E; Mayewski, P; Alley, R; Steig, E; Spencer, M; Meyerson, E; Meese, D; Lamorey, G; Grachev, A; Gow, A; Barnett, B (January 2004). "Abrupt climate change around 22 ka on the Siple Coast of Antarctica". Quaternary Science Reviews. 23 (1–2): 7–15. Bibcode:2004QSRv...23....7T. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2003.09.004.
  9. ↑ Alley, R. B.; Mayewski, P. A.; Sowers, T.; Stuiver, M.; Taylor, K. C.; Clark, P. U. (1997). "Holocene climatic instability: A prominent, widespread event 8200 yr ago". Geology. 25 (6): 483. Bibcode:1997Geo....25..483A. doi:10.1130/0091-7613(1997)025<0483:HCIAPW>2.3.CO;2.
  10. ↑ Weber; Clark; Kuhn; Timmermann (5 June 2014). "Millennial-scale variability in Antarctic ice-sheet discharge during the last deglaciation". Nature. 510 (7503): 134–138. Bibcode:2014Natur.510..134W. doi:10.1038/nature13397. PMID 24870232. S2CID 205238911.
  11. ↑ Gregoire, Lauren (11 July 2012). "Deglacial rapid sea level rises caused by ice-sheet saddle collapses" (PDF). Nature. 487 (7406): 219–222. Bibcode:2012Natur.487..219G. doi:10.1038/nature11257. PMID 22785319. S2CID 4403135.
  12. ↑ "RESET: RESponse of humans to abrupt Environmental Transitions". gtr.ukri.org. UK Research and Innovation.
  13. ↑ "RESET". Oxford University.
  14. ↑ "RESET - Response of Humans to Abrupt Environmental Transitions - School of Archaeology - University of Oxford". projects.arch.ox.ac.uk. Oxford School of Archaeology. Archived from the original on 11 December 2024. Retrieved 21 November 2024.
  15. ↑ McConnell; et al. (2017). "Synchronous volcanic eruptions and abrupt climate change ~17.7 ka plausibly linked by stratospheric ozone depletion". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. PNAS. 114 (38): 10035–10040. Bibcode:2017PNAS..11410035M. doi:10.1073/pnas.1705595114. PMC 5617275. PMID 28874529.
  16. ↑ 16.0 16.1 Alley, R. B.; Marotzke, J.; Nordhaus, W. D.; Overpeck, J. T.; Peteet, D. M.; Pielke Jr, R. A.; Pierrehumbert, R. T.; Rhines, P. B.; Stocker, T. F.; Talley, L. D.; Wallace, J. M. (Mar 2003). "Abrupt Climate Change" (PDF). Science. 299 (5615): 2005–2010. Bibcode:2003Sci...299.2005A. doi:10.1126/science.1081056. PMID 12663908. S2CID 19455675. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "Alley2002" defined multiple times with different content
  17. ↑ 17.0 17.1 Mayewski, Paul Andrew (2016). "Abrupt climate change: Past, present and the search for precursors as an aid to predicting events in the future (Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture)". EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts. 18: EPSC2016-2567. Bibcode:2016EGUGA..18.2567M.
  18. ↑ Schlosser P, Bönisch G, Rhein M, Bayer R (1991). "Reduction of deepwater formation in the Greenland Sea during the 1980s: Evidence from tracer data". Science. 251 (4997): 1054–1056. Bibcode:1991Sci...251.1054S. doi:10.1126/science.251.4997.1054. PMID 17802088. S2CID 21374638.
  19. ↑ Rhines, P. B. (2006). "Sub-Arctic oceans and global climate". Weather. 61 (4): 109–118. Bibcode:2006Wthr...61..109R. doi:10.1256/wea.223.05.
  20. ↑ Våge, K.; Pickart, R. S.; Thierry, V.; Reverdin, G.; Lee, C. M.; Petrie, B.; Agnew, T. A.; Wong, A.; Ribergaard, M. H. (2008). "Surprising return of deep convection to the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean in winter 2007–2008". Nature Geoscience. 2 (1): 67. Bibcode:2009NatGe...2...67V. doi:10.1038/ngeo382. |hdl-access= requires |hdl= (help)
  21. ↑ Markle; et al. (2016). "Global atmospheric teleconnections during Dansgaard–Oeschger events". Nature Geoscience. Nature. 10: 36–40. doi:10.1038/ngeo2848.
  22. ↑ "Thermodynamics: Albedo". NSIDC.
  23. ↑ Lenton, Timothy M.; Rockström, Johan; Gaffney, Owen; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Richardson, Katherine; Steffen, Will; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim (27 November 2019). "Climate tipping points – too risky to bet against". Nature (in Turanci). 575 (7784): 592–595. Bibcode:2019Natur.575..592L. doi:10.1038/d41586-019-03595-0. PMID 31776487. |hdl-access= requires |hdl= (help)
  24. ↑ Comiso, J. C. (2002). "A rapidly declining perennial sea ice cover in the Arctic". Geophysical Research Letters. 29 (20): 17-1–17-4. Bibcode:2002GeoRL..29.1956C. doi:10.1029/2002GL015650.
  25. ↑ Malhi, Y.; Aragao, L. E. O. C.; Galbraith, D.; Huntingford, C.; Fisher, R.; Zelazowski, P.; Sitch, S.; McSweeney, C.; Meir, P. (Feb 2009). "Special Feature: Exploring the likelihood and mechanism of a climate-change-induced dieback of the Amazon rainforest" (PDF). PNAS. 106 (49): 20610–20615. Bibcode:2009PNAS..10620610M. doi:10.1073/pnas.0804619106. ISSN 0027-8424. PMC 2791614. PMID 19218454.
  26. ↑ Empty citation (help)
  27. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named tar large scale impacts
  28. ↑ 28.0 28.1 Lenton, T. M.; Held, H.; Kriegler, E.; Hall, J. W.; Lucht, W.; Rahmstorf, S.; Schellnhuber, H. J. (2008). "Inaugural Article: Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 105 (6): 1786–1793. Bibcode:2008PNAS..105.1786L. doi:10.1073/pnas.0705414105. PMC 2538841. PMID 18258748.
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