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Guguwa ta wurare masu zafi da canjin yanayi

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Guguwa ta wurare masu zafi da canjin yanayi
Bayanai
Bangare na Tasirin canjin yanayi
Ayyukan guguwa na Arewacin Atlantic bisa ga Power Dissipation Index, 1949-2015. An tsara zafin jiki na teku tare da PDI don nuna yadda suke kwatanta. An daidaita layin ta amfani da matsakaicin nauyin shekaru biyar, wanda aka tsara a tsakiyar shekara.

Canjin yanayi yana shafar guguwa ta wurare masu zafi a hanyoyi da yawa: karuwar Ruwan sama da saurin iska, karuwar yawan guguwa mai tsananin da tsawo zuwa tashar inda guguwa suka kai matsakaicin ƙarfi suna daga cikin sakamakon canjin yanayi da mutum ya haifar.[1] Guguwa ta wurare masu zafi suna amfani da iska mai dumi, mai laushi a matsayin tushen makamashi ko man fetur. Kamar yadda canjin yanayi ke dumama yanayin teku, akwai yiwuwar karin wannan man fetur.[2]

Tsakanin 1979 da 2 °C (3.6 °F), an sami karuwar duniya a cikin rabo na guguwa na wurare masu zafi na Category 3 da mafi girma a kan sikelin Saffir-Simpson. Halin ya fi bayyana a arewacin Tekun Indiya, [3] [4] Arewacin Atlantic da Kudancin Tekun Indiya. A arewacin Tekun Indiya, musamman Tekun Larabawa, mitar, tsawon lokaci, da tsananin guguwa sun karu sosai. An sami karuwar kashi 52% a cikin yawan guguwa a cikin Tekun Larabawa, yayin da yawan guguwar guguwa mai tsanani ya karu da kashi 150%, a lokacin 1982-2019. A halin yanzu, jimlar lokacin guguwa a cikin Tekun Larabawa ya karu da kashi 80% yayin da na guguwa mai tsanani ya karu da 260%.[3] A Arewacin Pacific, guguwa masu zafi suna motsawa zuwa cikin ruwa mai sanyi kuma babu karuwa a cikin ƙarfi a wannan lokacin.[5] Tare da 2 ° C (3.6 ° F) warming, mafi girma kashi (+13%) na tropical cyclones ana sa ran kai Category 4 da 5 strength.[1] Binciken 2019 ya nuna cewa canjin yanayi yana haifar da yanayin da aka lura na saurin karuwa na guguwa mai zafi a cikin kwarin Atlantic. Guguwa mai saurin karuwa yana da wuyar yin hasashen sabili da haka yana haifar da ƙarin haɗari ga al'ummomin bakin teku.[6]

Iska mai zafi na iya riƙe ƙarin tururi na ruwa: mafi girman abun ciki na tururi na ruwan ya ba da alaƙar Clausius-Clapeyron, wanda ke samar da ≈7% karuwa a cikin tururi na iska a cikin yanayi ta 1 °C (1.8 °F) ° C (1.8 ° F) warming.[7][8] Dukkanin samfuran da aka kimanta a cikin takardar bita ta 2019 sun nuna karuwar yawan ruwan sama a nan gaba.[1] Ƙarin hauhawar matakin teku zai kara matakan guguwa. [9] Yana da kyau cewa raƙuman iska masu tsananin gaske suna ganin karuwa sakamakon canje-canje a cikin guguwa na wurare masu zafi, wanda ke kara kara haɗarin guguwa ga al'ummomin bakin teku.[10] Sakamakon ambaliyar ruwa, guguwar guguwa, da ambaliyar ƙasa (koguna) ana sa ran za su karu saboda dumamar duniya.[11]

A halin yanzu babu wata yarjejeniya game da yadda canjin yanayi zai shafi yawan guguwa na wurare masu zafi.[1] Yawancin samfuran yanayi suna nuna raguwar mitar a cikin tsinkaye na gaba.[10] Misali, takarda ta 2020 da ke kwatanta samfuran yanayi guda tara da suka sami raguwa mai ƙarfi a cikin mitar a Kudancin Tekun Indiya da Kudancin Hemisphere gabaɗaya, yayin da suke samun sakonni masu haɗuwa don guguwar zafi ta Arewacin Hemispher.[12] Bincike ya nuna kadan canji a cikin yawan guguwa na wurare masu zafi a duk duniya, tare da karuwar mitar a Arewacin Atlantic da tsakiyar Pacific, da raguwa mai mahimmanci a kudancin Tekun Indiya da yammacin Arewacin Pacific. [13][14] An sami fadadawa zuwa pole zuwa latitude inda matsakaicin ƙarfin guguwa na wurare masu zafi ke faruwa, wanda zai iya haɗawa da canjin yanayi.[15] A Arewacin Pacific, akwai yiwuwar fadada gabas.[9] Tsakanin 1949 da 2016, an sami raguwa a cikin saurin fassarar guguwa na wurare masu zafi. Har yanzu ba a san yadda za a iya danganta wannan ga canjin yanayi ba: ba duk samfuran yanayi suna nuna wannan fasalin ba.[10]

Tarihi

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Guguwa ta wurare masu zafi tsarin guguwa ne mai saurin juyawa wanda ke da cibiyar matsin lamba, ƙarancin yanayi mai ƙarancin matakin, iskõki masu ƙarfi da tsari mai juzu'i na tsawa wanda ke haifar da ruwan sama mai ƙarfi ko guguwa. Yawancin waɗannan tsarin suna samuwa a kowace shekara a ɗaya daga cikin wuraren guguwa na wurare masu zafi guda bakwai, waɗanda ke sa ido ta hanyar ayyuka daban-daban na yanayi da cibiyoyin gargadi.

Abubuwan da ke ƙayyade aikin Guguwa ta wurare masu zafi an fahimci su sosai: matakan teku masu zafi suna da kyau ga guguwa masu zafi, da kuma rashin daidaituwa da danshi a tsakiyar wurare masu zafi, yayin da iska mai tsayi ke hana su. Duk waɗannan abubuwan za su canza a ƙarƙashin canjin yanayi, amma ba koyaushe a bayyane yake wane abu ne ya mamaye.[16]

An san guguwa na wurare masu zafi a matsayin guguwa a cikin Tekun Atlantika da arewa maso gabashin Tekun Pacific, guguwa da ke arewa maso yammacin Tekun Pacific.[17] Ainihin, dukansu iri ɗaya ne na guguwa.

Bayanai da samfuran

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Aunawa

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Abubuwan da ke cikin zafi na duniya a saman 700 m na teku

Dangane da hotunan tauraron dan adam, dabarar Dvorak ita ce babbar hanyar da aka yi amfani da ita don kimanta ƙarfin guguwa na wurare masu zafi a duniya.[18]

Za'a iya lissafin ƙarfin ƙarfin (PI) na guguwa na wurare masu zafi daga bayanan da aka lura, da farko an samo su ne daga bayanan da ke tsaye na zafin jiki, danshi da yanayin zafi na teku (SSTs). An lissafa ƙarfin ƙarfin da ake samu (CAPE), daga tashoshin rediyo a wasu sassan wurare masu zafi daga 1958 zuwa 1997, amma ana ɗaukarsa mara inganci. The Power Dissipation Index (PDI) yana wakiltar jimlar ikon da aka ɓace don Arewacin Atlantic da yammacin Arewacin Pacific, kuma yana da alaƙa sosai da SSTs na wurare masu zafi.[19] Akwai sikelin guguwa daban-daban na wurare masu zafi don rarraba tsarin.

Tarihin tarihi

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Ayyukan guguwa na wurare masu zafi a Arewacin Tekun Atlantika daga 1950 zuwa 2020 bisa ga Ƙididdigar Makamashi ta Guguwa.

Tun zamanin tauraron dan adam, wanda ya fara a kusa da 1970, ana ɗaukar yanayin ya zama mai ƙarfi sosai dangane da haɗin guguwa da yanayin zafi na teku. Yarjejeniyar ta wanzu cewa akwai lokutan guguwa masu aiki a cikin nesa da suka gabata, amma yanayin zafi na teku da ke da alaƙa da Power Dissipation Index bai kasance mai girma ba.[19] Paleotempestology shine kimiyya na ayyukan guguwa na wurare masu zafi da suka gabata ta hanyar wakilcin geological (ambaliyar ruwa), ko tarihin tarihi, kamar su jirgin ruwa ko anomalies na zoben itace. Ya zuwa 2019, binciken paleoclimate bai isa ya sami daidaituwa ba don yanke shawara ga yankuna masu faɗi, amma suna ba da wasu bayanai masu amfani game da takamaiman wurare.[20]

Misali na guguwa mai zafi

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Ana amfani da samfuran yanayi don nazarin canje-canjen da ake tsammani a nan gaba a cikin aikin guguwa. Misalai na yanayi yanayi na ƙarancin ƙuduri ba zai iya wakiltar convection kai tsaye ba, kuma a maimakon haka amfani da parametrizations don kimanta ƙananan matakai. Wannan yana haifar da matsaloli ga guguwa na wurare masu zafi, kamar yadda convection wani muhimmin bangare ne na kimiyyar guguwa ta wurare masu zafi.

Misalai na duniya mafi girma da kuma tsarin yanayi na yanki na iya zama mafi ƙarancin kwamfuta don gudana, yana mai da wuya a kwaikwayon isasshen guguwa na wurare masu zafi don ingantaccen bincike na kididdiga. Koyaya, tare da ci gaba mai girma a cikin fasaha, samfuran yanayi sun inganta ƙwarewar kwaikwayon don yawan guguwa na wurare masu zafi da ƙarfi.[21][22]

Ɗaya daga cikin ƙalubalen da masana kimiyya ke fuskanta yayin ƙira shine ƙayyade ko canje-canjen da aka yi kwanan nan a cikin guguwa na wurare masu zafi suna da alaƙa da tilasta wa mutum, ko kuma idan waɗannan canje-cancen har yanzu suna cikin bambancin halitta.[23] Wannan ya fi bayyane yayin nazarin guguwa na wurare masu zafi a cikin ƙuduri na lokaci mai tsawo. Ɗaya daga cikin binciken ya sami raguwar yanayin guguwa a cikin gabar gabashin Australiya a kan tarihin tarihi na tsawon ƙarni.[24]

Canje-canje a cikin guguwa na wurare masu zafi

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1970 Guguwar Bhola kafin faɗuwa. Ya zama guguwa mafi muni da aka taɓa yin rikodin tare da mutuwar sama da 300,000.

Canjin yanayi na iya shafar guguwa ta wurare masu zafi ta hanyoyi da yawa: karuwar ruwan sama da saurin iska, raguwa a cikin mitar gaba ɗaya, karuwa a cikin mitarar guguwa mai tsanani da tsawo zuwa tashar inda guguwa suka kai matsakaicin ƙarfi suna daga cikin yiwuwar sakamakon canjin yanayi na mutum.[25]

Ruwan sama

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Iska mai zafi na iya riƙe ƙarin tururi na ruwa: mafi girman abun ciki na tururi na ruwan an ba shi ta hanyar Dangantakar Clausius-Clapeyron, wanda ke samar da ≈7% karuwa a cikin tururi na iska a cikin yanayi ta hanyar 1 ° C warming.[7][8] Dukkanin samfuran da aka tantance a cikin takardar bita ta 2019 sun nuna karuwar yawan ruwan sama a nan gaba, wanda shine ruwan sama da ke fadowa kowace awa.[25] Ƙungiyar Meteorological ta Duniya ta bayyana a cikin 2017 cewa yawan ruwan sama daga Guguwar Harvey mai yiwuwa ya karu da canjin yanayi. [26] 

Yankin ruwan sama na guguwa na wurare masu zafi (ba kamar ƙimar ba) ana sarrafa shi da farko ta yanayin zafin teku na muhalli (SST) - dangane da matsakaicin SST na wurare masu wurare masu zafi, wanda ake kira yanayin zafin jiki na teku. Ruwan sama zai fadada waje yayin da dangi SST ke ƙaruwa, wanda ke da alaƙa da fadada filin iska na guguwa. Ana lura da guguwa mafi girma a yammacin Arewacin Pacific, inda manyan dabi'u na dangi SST da kuma tsakiyar yanayin zafi na dangi suke. Da yake zaton cewa yanayin zafi na teku yana tashi daidai, yanayin zafi ba zai iya tasiri ga yankin ruwan sama ba.[27]

Ƙarfin

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  Guguwa ta wurare masu zafi suna amfani da iska mai dumi, mai laushi a matsayin tushen makamashi ko "mai". Kamar yadda canjin yanayi ke dumama yanayin teku, akwai yiwuwar samun ƙarin wannan man fetur.[28] Wani binciken da aka buga a shekarar 2012 ya nuna cewa SSTs na iya zama mai mahimmanci a matsayin wakili don auna ƙarfin ƙarfin (PI) na guguwa na wurare masu zafi, kamar yadda guguwa ke da hankali ga yanayin zafi na teku.[29] Tsakanin 1979 da 2017, an sami karuwar duniya a cikin rabo na guguwa na wurare masu zafi na Category 3 da mafi girma a kan sikelin Saffir-Simpson, wanda shine guguwa tare da saurin iska sama da 178 kilometres (111 mi) a kowace awa. Halin ya fi bayyana a Arewacin Atlantic da Kudancin Tekun Indiya. A Arewacin Pacific, guguwa masu zafi suna motsawa zuwa cikin ruwa mai sanyi kuma babu karuwa a cikin ƙarfi a wannan lokacin.[30] Tare da 2 °C warming, mafi girma kashi (+13%) na tropical cyclones ana sa ran kai Category 4 da 5 strength.[25] Binciken guguwa na 2020 na akalla ƙarfin guguwa mai zafi ya kammala cewa canjin yanayi da mutum ya haifar ya karu da yawan ruwan sama mai sa'o'i 3 da kashi 10%, kuma ruwan sama mai yawa na kwanaki 3 ya kai kashi 5%, kuma ga guguwar guguwa yawan sun karu zuwa 11% da 8%.[31] 

Canjin yanayi mai yiwuwa yana motsa yanayin da aka lura na saurin karuwa na guguwa na wurare masu zafi a cikin kwarin Atlantic, tare da rabo na guguwar da ke fuskantar karuwa kusan ninki biyu a cikin shekarun 1982 zuwa 2009.[32] Guguwa mai saurin karuwa yana da wuyar yin hasashen kuma yana haifar da ƙarin haɗari ga al'ummomin bakin teku.[33] Har ila yau, guguwa sun fara lalacewa a hankali da zarar sun sauka, suna barazana ga yankunan da ke cikin ƙasa fiye da baya.[34] Lokacin guguwar guguwar Atlantic ta 2020 ya kasance mai aiki sosai kuma ya karya rikodin da yawa don mitar da tsananin guguwa.

Guguwa ta Arewacin Atlantic da guguwa Guguwa rukunin 1-3 Guguwa mai zafi ko Rashin zafi na wurare masu zafi   

Matsakaicin lokaci

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Babu wata yarjejeniya game da yadda canjin yanayi zai shafi yawan guguwa na wurare masu zafi.[25] Yawancin samfuran yanayi suna nuna raguwar mitar a cikin tsinkaye na gaba.[20] Misali, takarda ta 2020 da ke kwatanta samfuran yanayi guda tara da suka sami raguwa mai ƙarfi a cikin mitar a Kudancin Tekun Indiya da Kudancin Hemisphere gabaɗaya, yayin da suke samun sakonni masu haɗuwa don guguwar zafi ta Arewacin Hemispher.[35] Bincike ya nuna kadan canji a cikin yawan guguwa na wurare masu zafi a duk duniya.[36]

Wani binciken da aka buga a shekarar 2015 ya kammala cewa za a sami karin guguwa na wurare masu zafi a cikin yanayi mai sanyi, kuma cewa asalin guguwa mai zafi yana yiwuwa tare da yanayin zafi na teku a ƙasa da 26 °C (79 °F) ° C (79 ° F).[37][38] Tare da yanayin zafi na teku, musamman a Kudancin Hemisphere, tare da karuwar matakan carbon dioxide, mai yiwuwa za a rage yawan guguwa na wurare masu zafi a nan gaba.[29][39]

Binciken da Murakami et al. suka gudanar biyo bayan lokacin guguwa na 2015 a gabashin da tsakiyar Tekun Pacific inda yawan guguwa masu zafi da guguwa guda uku a lokaci guda suka faru, sun kammala cewa tilasta iskar gas tana inganta yanayin zafi na Pacific wanda suke tsarawa zai kara yawan guguwar zafi mai zafi a wannan yanki.[40]

Hanyoyin guguwa

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An sami fadadawa zuwa pole zuwa latitude inda matsakaicin ƙarfin guguwa na wurare masu zafi ke faruwa, wanda zai iya haɗawa da canjin yanayi.[15] A Arewacin Pacific, akwai kuma fadada gabas.[41] Tsakanin 1949 da 2016, an sami raguwa a cikin saurin fassarar guguwa na wurare masu zafi. Har yanzu ba a san yadda za a iya danganta wannan ga canjin yanayi ba: ba duk samfuran yanayi suna nuna wannan fasalin ba.[20]

Hadarin guguwa da haɗarin ambaliyar ruwa

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Ƙarin hauhawar matakin teku zai kara matakan guguwa.[41] Yana da kyau cewa raƙuman iska masu tsananin gaske suna ganin karuwa sakamakon canje-canje a cikin guguwa na wurare masu zafi, wanda ke kara kara haɗarin guguwa ga al'ummomin bakin teku.[20] Tsakanin 1923 da 2008, abubuwan da suka faru na guguwa a bakin tekun Atlantika na Amurka sun nuna kyakkyawan yanayi.[42] Wani binciken da aka yi a shekarar 2017 ya kalli tasirin ambaliyar ruwa, guguwar guguwa, da ambaliyar ƙasa (koguna), da kuma ayyukan karuwa saboda canjin yanayi.[43][44] Koyaya, masana kimiyya har yanzu ba su da tabbas ko karuwar guguwa ta baya-bayan nan martani ne ga canjin yanayi na ɗan adam.[45]

Guguwa ta wurare masu zafi a cikin kwari daban-daban

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Guguwa guda shida na wurare masu zafi sun yi ta yawo a kan tafkuna biyu a ranar 16 ga Satumba, 2020. 

Guguwa

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Guguwa huɗu masu aiki a lokaci guda a ranar 11 ga Nuwamba. Daga hagu zuwa dama: Yinxing, Toraji, Usagi, da Man-yi, abin da ya faru na farko tun 1951 [46] 

Binciken da ya danganci rubuce-rubuce daga Japan da Hawaii ya nuna cewa guguwa a arewa maso yammacin Pacific ya kara karfi da 12-15% a matsakaici tun 1977. Guguwa mafi karfi da aka lura ya ninka sau biyu, ko sau uku a wasu yankuna, tsananin wasu tsarin faɗuwa ya fi bayyana. Wannan hauhawar guguwa tana shafar yawan mutanen bakin teku a China, Japan, Koriya da Philippines, kuma an danganta shi da dumama ruwan teku. Marubutan sun lura cewa har yanzu ba a bayyana yadda zafin duniya ya haifar da karuwar yanayin zafi na ruwa ba, amma abubuwan lura sun dace da abin da IPCC ke tsarawa don dumama yanayin zafi na teku.[47] Jirgin iska na tsaye ya ga raguwar yanayin a ciki da kewayen kasar Sin, yana haifar da yanayi mafi kyau ga guguwa mai tsanani. Wannan yafi mayar da martani ga raunana na ruwan sama na lokacin rani na Gabashin Asiya, sakamakon dumamar duniya.[48]

Kafofin watsa labarai da ra'ayi na jama'a

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Halakar da aka yi daga farkon karni na 21 na guguwar Tekun Atlantika, irin su guguwar Katrina, Wilma, da Sandy, sun haifar da karuwar sha'awar batun Canjin yanayi da guguwa ta hanyar kafofin watsa labarai da jama'a da yawa, da kuma damuwa cewa canjin yanayi na duniya na iya taka muhimmiyar rawa a cikin waɗannan abubuwan. A cikin 2005 da 2017, binciken da ya shafi yawan mutanen da guguwa ta shafa ya kammala a cikin 2005 cewa kashi 39 cikin 100 na Amurkawa sun yi imanin cewa canjin yanayi ya taimaka wajen bunkasa tsananin guguwa, ya tashi zuwa kashi 55 cikin 100 a watan Satumbar 2017.

Bayan Typhoon Meranti a cikin 2016, ba a auna fahimtar haɗari a China don ƙaruwa ba. Koyaya, akwai karuwar tallafi ga ayyukan mutum da na al'umma game da canjin yanayi.[49] A Taiwan, mutanen da suka rayu a cikin guguwa ba su nuna damuwa game da canjin yanayi ba. Binciken ya sami kyakkyawar alaƙa tsakanin damuwa game da guguwa da damuwa game da canjin yanayi.[50]

Manazarta

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  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Knutson, Thomas; Camargo, Suzana J.; Chan, Johnny C. L.; Emanuel, Kerry; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Kossin, James; Mohapatra, Mrutyunjay; Satoh, Masaki; Sugi, Masato; Walsh, Kevin; Wu, Liguang (August 6, 2019). "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part II. Projected Response to Anthropogenic Warming". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 101 (3): BAMS–D–18–0194.1. Bibcode:2020BAMS..101E.303K. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0194.1. |hdl-access= requires |hdl= (help) Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name ":52" defined multiple times with different content
  2. ↑ "Major tropical cyclones have become '15% more likely' over past 40 years". Carbon Brief (in Turanci). May 18, 2020. Archived from the original on August 8, 2020. Retrieved August 31, 2020.
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 Deshpande, Medha; Singh, Vineet Kumar; Ganadhi, Mano Kranthi; Roxy, M. K.; Emmanuel, R.; Kumar, Umesh (2021-12-01). "Changing status of tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean". Climate Dynamics (in Turanci). 57 (11): 3545–3567. Bibcode:2021ClDy...57.3545D. doi:10.1007/s00382-021-05880-z. ISSN 1432-0894.
  4. ↑ Singh, Vineet Kumar; Roxy, M.K. (March 2022). "A review of ocean-atmosphere interactions during tropical cyclones in the north Indian Ocean". Earth-Science Reviews (in Turanci). 226. arXiv:2012.04384. Bibcode:2022ESRv..22603967S. doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.103967.
  5. ↑ Kossin, James P.; Knapp, Kenneth R.; Olander, Timothy L.; Velden, Christopher S. (May 18, 2020). "Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (in Turanci). 117 (22): 11975–11980. Bibcode:2020PNAS..11711975K. doi:10.1073/pnas.1920849117. PMC 7275711. PMID 32424081.
  6. ↑ Empty citation (help)
  7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 Knutson, Thomas R.; Sirutis, Joseph J.; Zhao, Ming; Tuleya, Robert E.; Bender, Morris; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Villarini, Gabriele; Chavas, Daniel (15 September 2015). "Global Projections of Intense Tropical Cyclone Activity for the Late Twenty-First Century from Dynamical Downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 Scenarios". Journal of Climate. 28 (18): 7203–7224. Bibcode:2015JCli...28.7203K. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0129.1. S2CID 129209836. Archived from the original on 5 January 2020. Retrieved 9 December 2019. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "Knutson Sirutis Zhao et al 2015" defined multiple times with different content
  8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 Knutson, Thomas R.; Sirutis, Joseph J.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Garner, Stephen; Zhao, Ming; Kim, Hyeong-Seog; Bender, Morris; Tuleya, Robert E.; Held, Isaac M.; Villarini, Gabriele (1 September 2013). "Dynamical Downscaling Projections of Twenty-First-Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-Based Scenarios". Journal of Climate. 26 (17): 6591–6617. Bibcode:2013JCli...26.6591K. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00539.1. S2CID 129571840. Archived from the original on 22 September 2022. Retrieved 21 November 2022. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "Knutson Sirutis Vecchi et al 2013" defined multiple times with different content
  9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 Empty citation (help) Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name ":62" defined multiple times with different content
  10. ↑ 10.0 10.1 10.2 Walsh, K. J. E.; Camargo, S. J.; Knutson, T. R.; Kossin, J.; Lee, T. -C.; Murakami, H.; Patricola, C. (December 1, 2019). "Tropical cyclones and climate change". Tropical Cyclone Research and Review (in Turanci). 8 (4): 240–250. Bibcode:2019TCRR....8..240W. doi:10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.01.004. |hdl-access= requires |hdl= (help) Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name ":72" defined multiple times with different content
  11. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named :42
  12. ↑ Roberts, Malcolm John; Camp, Joanne; Seddon, Jon; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Hodges, Kevin; Vannière, Benoît; Mecking, Jenny; Haarsma, Rein; Bellucci, Alessio; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Caron, Louis-Philippe (2020). "Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble". Geophysical Research Letters (in Turanci). 47 (14): e2020GL088662. Bibcode:2020GeoRL..4788662R. doi:10.1029/2020GL088662. PMC 7507130. PMID 32999514. S2CID 221972087.
  13. ↑ "Hurricanes and Climate Change". Union of Concerned Scientists (in Turanci). Archived from the original on September 24, 2019. Retrieved September 29, 2019.
  14. ↑ Murakami, Hiroyuki; Delworth, Thomas L.; Cooke, William F.; Zhao, Ming; Xiang, Baoqiang; Hsu, Pang-Chi (2020). "Detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 117 (20): 10706–10714. Bibcode:2020PNAS..11710706M. doi:10.1073/pnas.1922500117. PMC 7245084. PMID 32366651.
  15. ↑ 15.0 15.1 James P. Kossin; Kerry A. Emanuel; Gabriel A. Vecchi (2014). "The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity" (PDF). Nature. 509 (7500): 349–352. Bibcode:2014Natur.509..349K. doi:10.1038/nature13278. PMID 24828193. S2CID 4463311. Archived (PDF) from the original on Oct 6, 2022. |hdl-access= requires |hdl= (help) Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "dspace" defined multiple times with different content
  16. ↑ Patricola, Christina M.; Wehner, Michael F. (November 2018). "Anthropogenic influences on major tropical cyclone events" (PDF). Nature. 563 (7731): 339–346. Bibcode:2018Natur.563..339P. doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0673-2. OSTI 1526550. PMID 30429550. S2CID 53305066. Archived (PDF) from the original on Dec 17, 2023.
  17. ↑ "What is the difference between a hurricane, a cyclone, and a typhoon?". Ocean Facts. National Ocean Service. Archived from the original on 2016-12-25. Retrieved 2016-12-24.
  18. ↑ Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project. "Real-Time Global Tropical Cyclone Activity: Data Quality". Archived from the original on January 1, 2020. Retrieved October 9, 2017.
  19. ↑ 19.0 19.1 "3.8.3 Evidence for Changes in Tropical Storms". Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis. IPCC. 2007. Archived from the original on 2021-12-10. Retrieved 2021-12-10. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "IPCC2007" defined multiple times with different content
  20. ↑ 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.3 Walsh, K. J. E.; Camargo, S. J.; Knutson, T. R.; Kossin, J.; Lee, T. -C.; Murakami, H.; Patricola, C. (2019-12-01). "Tropical cyclones and climate change". Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 8 (4): 240–250. Bibcode:2019TCRR....8..240W. doi:10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.01.004. |hdl-access= requires |hdl= (help) Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name ":7" defined multiple times with different content
  21. ↑ Zhao, Ming; Held, Isaac M.; Lin, Shian-Jiann; Vecchi, Gabriel A. (15 December 2009). "Simulations of Global Hurricane Climatology, Interannual Variability, and Response to Global Warming Using a 50-km Resolution GCM". Journal of Climate. 22 (24): 6653–6678. Bibcode:2009JCli...22.6653Z. doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3049.1.
  22. ↑ Murakami, Hiroyuki; Wang, Yuqing; Yoshimura, Hiromasa; Mizuta, Ryo; Sugi, Masato; Shindo, Eiki; Adachi, Yukimasa; Yukimoto, Seiji; Hosaka, Masahiro; Kusunoki, Shoji; Ose, Tomoaki; Kitoh, Akio (May 2012). "Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity Projected by the New High-Resolution MRI-AGCM". Journal of Climate. 25 (9): 3237–3260. Bibcode:2012JCli...25.3237M. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00415.1.
  23. ↑ Knutson, Thomas R.; McBride, John L.; Chan, Johnny; Emanuel, Kerry; Holland, Greg; Landsea, Chris; Held, Isaac; Kossin, James P.; Srivastava, A. K.; Sugi, Masato (March 2010). "Tropical cyclones and climate change". Nature Geoscience. 3 (3): 157–163. Bibcode:2010NatGe...3..157K. doi:10.1038/ngeo779. |hdl-access= requires |hdl= (help)
  24. ↑ Callaghan, Jeff; Power, Scott B. (August 2011). "Variability and decline in the number of severe tropical cyclones making land-fall over eastern Australia since the late nineteenth century". Climate Dynamics. 37 (3–4): 647–662. Bibcode:2011ClDy...37..647C. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0883-2. S2CID 17904623.
  25. ↑ 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.3 Knutson, Thomas; Camargo, Suzana J.; Chan, Johnny C. L.; Emanuel, Kerry; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Kossin, James; Mohapatra, Mrutyunjay; Satoh, Masaki; Sugi, Masato; Walsh, Kevin; Wu, Liguang (March 2020). "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part II: Projected Response to Anthropogenic Warming". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 101 (3): E303–E322. Bibcode:2020BAMS..101E.303K. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0194.1. |hdl-access= requires |hdl= (help) Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name ":5" defined multiple times with different content
  26. ↑ "Global Warming and Atlantic Hurricanes". NOAA. 2017. Archived from the original on 2020-04-16. Retrieved 2017-10-06.
  27. ↑ Lin, Yanluan; Zhao, Ming; Zhang, Minghua (May 2015). "Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature". Nature Communications. 6 (1): 6591. Bibcode:2015NatCo...6.6591L. doi:10.1038/ncomms7591. PMC 4382685. PMID 25761457.
  28. ↑ Dunne, Daisy (2020-05-18). "Major tropical cyclones have become '15% more likely' over past 40 years". Carbon Brief (in Turanci). Archived from the original on 2020-08-08. Retrieved 2020-08-31.
  29. ↑ 29.0 29.1 Sugi, Masato; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Yoshimura, Jun (2012). "On the Mechanism of Tropical Cyclone Frequency Changes Due to Global Warming". Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Series II. 90A: 397–408. Bibcode:2012JMeSJ..90A.397S. doi:10.2151/jmsj.2012-a24. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name ":03" defined multiple times with different content
  30. ↑ Kossin, James P.; Knapp, Kenneth R.; Olander, Timothy L.; Velden, Christopher S. (2 June 2020). "Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 117 (22): 11975–11980. Bibcode:2020PNAS..11711975K. doi:10.1073/pnas.1920849117. PMC 7275711. PMID 32424081.
  31. ↑ Reed, Kevin A.; Wehner, Michael F.; Zarzycki, Colin M. (12 April 2022). "Attribution of 2020 hurricane season extreme rainfall to human-induced climate change". Nature Communications. 13 (1905): 1905. Bibcode:2022NatCo..13.1905R. doi:10.1038/s41467-022-29379-1. PMC 9005694 Check |pmc= value (help). PMID 35414063 Check |pmid= value (help).
  32. ↑ Bhatia, Kieran T.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Knutson, Thomas R.; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Kossin, James; Dixon, Keith W.; Whitlock, Carolyn E. (December 2019). "Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates". Nature Communications. 10 (1): 635. Bibcode:2019NatCo..10..635B. doi:10.1038/s41467-019-08471-z. PMC 6367364. PMID 30733439.
  33. ↑ Empty citation (help)
  34. ↑ Li, Lin; Chakraborty, Pinaki (12 November 2020). "Slower decay of landfalling hurricanes in a warming world". Nature. 587 (7833): 230–234. Bibcode:2020Natur.587..230L. doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2867-7. PMID 33177666. S2CID 226309726. Archived from the original on 12 September 2023. Retrieved 21 November 2022.
  35. ↑ Roberts, Malcolm John; Camp, Joanne; Seddon, Jon; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Hodges, Kevin; Vannière, Benoît; Mecking, Jenny; Haarsma, Rein; Bellucci, Alessio; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Chauvin, Fabrice; Terray, Laurent; Valcke, Sophie; Moine, Marie-Pierre (28 July 2020). "Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble". Geophysical Research Letters. 47 (14): e2020GL088662. Bibcode:2020GeoRL..4788662R. doi:10.1029/2020GL088662. PMC 7507130. PMID 32999514.
  36. ↑ "Hurricanes and Climate Change". Union of Concerned Scientists (in Turanci). Archived from the original on 2019-09-24. Retrieved 2019-09-29.
  37. ↑ Sugi, Masato; Yoshida, Kohei; Murakami, Hiroyuki (28 August 2015). "More tropical cyclones in a cooler climate?". Geophysical Research Letters. 42 (16): 6780–6784. Bibcode:2015GeoRL..42.6780S. doi:10.1002/2015GL064929.
  38. ↑ Stanley, Sarah (2015-10-22). "A Cooler Climate Would Trigger More Tropical Cyclones". Eos (in Turanci). Archived from the original on 2020-11-08. Retrieved 2021-02-12.
  39. ↑ Held, Isaac M.; Zhao, Ming (2011-10-15). "The Response of Tropical Cyclone Statistics to an Increase in CO2 with Fixed Sea Surface Temperatures". Journal of Climate. 24 (20): 5353–5364. Bibcode:2011JCli...24.5353H. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00050.1. OSTI 1564909.
  40. ↑ Murakami, Hiroyuki; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Underwood, Seth; Gudgel, Richard; Yang, Xiaosong; Jia, Liwei; Zeng, Fanrong; Paffendorf, Karen; Zhang, Wei (January 2017). "Dominant Role of Subtropical Pacific Warming in Extreme Eastern Pacific Hurricane Seasons: 2015 and the Future". Journal of Climate. 30 (1): 243–264. Bibcode:2017JCli...30..243M. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0424.1. S2CID 35701374.
  41. ↑ 41.0 41.1 Empty citation (help) Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name ":6" defined multiple times with different content
  42. ↑ Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John C.; Jevrejeva, Svetlana (27 November 2012). "Homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 109 (48): 19601–19605. doi:10.1073/pnas.1209542109. PMC 3511770. PMID 23071336.
  43. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named :4
  44. ↑ Matthew, Richard A.; Sanders, Brett F.; Aghakouchak, Amir; Salvadori, Gianfausto; Moftakhari, Hamed R. (2017). "Compounding effects of sea level rise and fluvial flooding". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 114 (37): 9785–9790. Bibcode:2017PNAS..114.9785M. doi:10.1073/pnas.1620325114. PMC 5603992. PMID 28847932.
  45. ↑ Knutson, Thomas; Camargo, Suzana J.; Chan, Johnny C. L.; Emanuel, Kerry; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Kossin, James; Mohapatra, Mrutyunjay; Satoh, Masaki; Sugi, Masato; Walsh, Kevin; Wu, Liguang (October 2019). "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I: Detection and Attribution". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 100 (10): 1987–2007. Bibcode:2019BAMS..100.1987K. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1. S2CID 191139413. |hdl-access= requires |hdl= (help)
  46. ↑ Shackelford, Robert (2024-11-12). "Four storms churning the West Pacific at the same time mean more bad news for the Philippines". CNN (in Turanci). Retrieved 2024-11-12.
  47. ↑ "Asian typhoons becoming more intense, study finds". The Guardian. 2016. Archived from the original on 2019-04-23. Retrieved 2017-10-08.
  48. ↑ Liu, Lu; Wang, Yuqing; Zhan, Ruifen; Xu, Jing; Duan, Yihong (1 May 2020). "Increasing Destructive Potential of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over China". Journal of Climate. 33 (9): 3731–3743. Bibcode:2020JCli...33.3731L. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0451.1. S2CID 213900279.
  49. ↑ Wu, Wenhao; Zheng, Junjie; Fang, Qinhua (July 2020). "How a typhoon event transforms public risk perception of climate change: A study in China". Journal of Cleaner Production. 261. Bibcode:2020JCPro.26121163W. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121163. S2CID 216412671.
  50. ↑ Sun, Yingying; Han, Ziqiang (2018). "Climate Change Risk Perception in Taiwan: Correlation with Individual and Societal Factors". International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (in Turanci). 15 (1): 91. doi:10.3390/ijerph15010091. PMC 5800190. PMID 29316685.
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