Iyaka don cigaba
| Iyaka don cigaba | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asali | ||||
| Mawallafi |
Donella Meadows (mul)  , Dennis Meadows (mul) , Jørgen Randers (mul) da William W. Behrens III (en) | |||
| Lokacin bugawa | 1972 | |||
| Asalin suna | The Limits to Growth da Limits to growth | |||
| Kwamishina |
Club of Rome (en) | |||
| Online Computer Library Center | 307838 | |||
| Characteristics | ||||
| Genre (en) |
ikonomi, nature (en) , ginin daji da non-fiction (en) | |||
| Harshe | Turanci | |||
| Muhimmin darasi |
world economy (en) , world energy resources (en) , raw material deposit (en) , economic growth (en) da sustainable development (en) | |||
| Chronology (en) | ||||
|
| ||||
Iyaka don Ci gaba (LTG) rahoto ne na 1972[1]wanda ya tattauna yuwuwar haɓakar tattalin arziƙi mai faɗi da yawan jama'a tare da ƙarancin wadataccen albarkatu, wanda kwaikwaiyon kwamfuta yayi nazari akai.[3]Binciken ya yi amfani da samfurin na'ura mai kwakwalwa ta Duniya3 don kwatanta sakamakon hulɗar tsakanin Duniya da tsarin ɗan adam.[2][3]
Kungiyar ta Rome ce ta ba da umarni, binciken ya fara gabatar da sakamakonsa a taron kasa da kasa a Moscow da Rio de Janeiro a lokacin rani na 1971. masu bincike.[2]: 8 samfurin ya dogara ne akan aikin Jay Forrester na MIT,[2]: 21 kamar yadda aka bayyana a cikin littafinsa Dynamics na Duniya.[4]
Sakamakon rahoton ya nuna cewa, idan babu sauye-sauye a fannin amfani da albarkatu da kuma lalata muhalli, akwai yuwuwar za a samu raguwa ba zato ba tsammani kuma ba za a iya sarrafa ba a dukkan karfin al'umma da masana'antu. Ko da yake ta fuskanci suka mai tsanani da bincike a lokacin da aka fitar da shi, rahoton ya yi tasiri ga gyare-gyaren muhalli shekaru da yawa. Binciken da ya biyo baya ya lura cewa amfani da albarkatun ƙasa bai cika yin gyare-gyare ba don canza sakamakon da ake tsammani.[5] Amma duk da haka hasashen farashin dangane da ƙarancin albarkatu ya kasa samuwa a cikin shekarun da aka buga.
Tun bayan buga shi, an sayi kusan kofi miliyan 30 na littafin a cikin harsuna 30.[6]Yana ci gaba da haifar da muhawara kuma ya kasance batun wallafe-wallafe da yawa daga baya.
Bayan Iyaka da Iyaka don Ci gaba: An buga Sabunta Shekaru 30 a cikin 1992 da 2004 bi da bi;[8][9] a cikin 2012, an buga hasashen shekaru 40 daga Jørgen Randers, ɗaya daga cikin mawallafa na asali na littafin, an buga shi azaman 2052 2052 da shekara ta gaba. 2022 biyu na asali Ilimit to Growth marubuta, Dennis Meadows da Jørgen Randers, sun haɗu da wasu masu ba da gudummawa guda 19 don samar da Iyaka da Bayan.[7]
Manufar
[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]A cikin ƙaddamar da ƙungiyar MIT don gudanar da aikin da ya haifar da LTG, Ƙungiyar Roma tana da manufofi guda uku: : 185
Samun fahimtar iyakoki na tsarin duniyarmu da kuma matsalolin da yake sanyawa akan lambobi da ayyukan ɗan adam.
Gano da kuma nazarin abubuwan da suka mamaye, da mu'amalarsu, waɗanda ke yin tasiri na dogon lokaci na tsarin duniya.
Don yin gargaɗi game da yuwuwar sakamakon manufofin tattalin arziki da masana'antu na zamani, da nufin yin tasiri ga canje-canje zuwa salon rayuwa mai dorewa.
Hanya
[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]Tsarin Duniya3 ya dogara ne akan abubuwa biyar: "yawan jama'a, samar da abinci, masana'antu, gurbatawa, da kuma amfani da albarkatun kasa da ba za a iya sabunta su ba"[2]: 25 A lokacin binciken, duk wadannan sauye-sauyen suna karuwa kuma an yi zaton za su ci gaba da girma sosai, yayin da ikon fasaha na haɓaka albarkatun ya girma ne kawai a layi daya.[2]. Marubutan sun yi niyya ne don gano yuwuwar tsarin amsawa mai dorewa wanda za a samu ta hanyar canza yanayin ci gaba tsakanin masu canji guda biyar a ƙarƙashin yanayi uku. Sun lura cewa hasashensu game da kimar masu canji a cikin kowane yanayi hasashe ne "kawai a cikin mafi ƙarancin ma'anar kalmar", kuma alamu ne kawai na dabi'un tsarin.[12]. Biyu daga cikin al'amuran sun ga "mafi girma da rugujewa" na tsarin duniya a tsakiyar-zuwa ƙarshen karni na 21st, yayin da yanayi na uku ya haifar da "tsayayyen duniya"[13]: 11
Fihirisar ajiyar ma'auni
Wani mahimmin ra'ayi a cikin Iyaka zuwa Girma shine ra'ayin cewa idan adadin amfani da albarkatu yana ƙaruwa, adadin ajiyar ba za a iya ƙididdige su ta hanyar ɗaukar abubuwan da aka sani na yanzu da raba su ta yadda ake amfani da su na shekara-shekara, kamar yadda aka saba yi don samun ƙididdiga a tsaye. Misali, a cikin 1972, adadin ajiyar chromium ya kai tan miliyan 775, wanda ake hako tan miliyan 1.85 a duk shekara. Ma'auni na tsaye shine 775 / 1.85 = shekaru 418, amma yawan amfani da chromium yana karuwa sosai a kashi 2.6 a kowace shekara.
Manazarta
[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]- ↑ Meadows, Donella H; Meadows, Dennis L; Randers, Jørgen; Behrens III, William W (1972). The Limits to Growth; A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind. New York: Universe Books. ISBN 0876631650. Retrieved 26 November 2017.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 The models were run on DYNAMO, a simulation programming language.
- ↑ Edwards, Paul N. (2010). A Vast Machine: Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming. MIT Press. pp. 366–371. ISBN 9780262290715.
- ↑ Forrester, Jay Wright (1971). World Dynamics. Wright-Allen Press. ISBN 0262560186.
- ↑ See section #Comparisons and updated models
- ↑ Nørgård, Jørgen Stig; Peet, John; Ragnarsdóttir, Kristín Vala (March 2010). "The History of The Limits to Growth". The Solutions Journal. 1 (2): 59–63. Archived from the original on 20 July 2014. Retrieved 1 July 2014.
- ↑ Farley, Joshua C. "The Limits to growth debate". The University of Vermont. Retrieved 1 December 2017.