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Lokacin raguwa

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Infotaula d'esdevenimentLokacin raguwa
Iri natural phenomenon (en) Fassara
Bayan matsakaicin matsakaici na shekaru dubu, furanni na cherry a Japan suna fitowa a baya tun daga 1800 saboda canjin yanayi
Canje-canje a lokacin ragweed pollen a Amurka da Kanada, 1995 zuwa 2013. A wani shafin a Saskatchewan, lokacin ya karu da tsawon kwanaki 27.

A cikin ilimin halitta, raguwar yanayi yana nufin canje-canje da aka lura a cikin lokutan yanayi, [1] kamar alamun da suka gabata na bazara [2] da aka lura da su a yankunan da ke da matsakaici a fadin Arewacin Hemisphere. [3] [4] Rubuce-rubucen Phenological da masana kimiyya na yanayi suka bincika sun nuna muhimman abubuwan da suka faru a lokacin da aka lura da abubuwan da suka shafi yanayi, daga ƙarshen karni na 20 kuma suna ci gaba zuwa karni na 21.[5][4][6] A Turai, an haɗa saurin yanayi tare da isowar bazara yana motsawa kusan mako guda a cikin shekaru 30 da suka gabata. [7][8] Sauran binciken sun sanya yawan lokacin da aka auna ta hanyar ilimin shuke-shuke a cikin kewayon kwanaki 2-3 a kowace shekara goma ci gaba a cikin bazara, da kuma kwanaki 0.3-1.6 a kowace shekara iri a cikin kaka, a cikin shekaru 30-80 da suka gabata.[9]

Canje-canje masu lura a cikin yanayi da suka danganci tsalle-tsalle na lokacin sun haɗa da tsuntsaye da ke sa qwai a baya da kuma buds da ke bayyana a wasu bishiyoyi a ƙarshen hunturu.[10] Baya ga ci gaba da budding, itatuwan da ke fure sun kasance suna fure a baya, misali furanni masu muhimmanci na al'adu a Japan, [11] [12] da Washington, DC [13] [14] dazuzzukan katako na arewa suna da alaƙa da fitowa da wuri, kuma suna riƙe da rufin kore na dogon lokaci.[15] Lokacin girma na noma ya karu da kwanaki 10-20 a cikin 'yan shekarun da suka gabata.[16]

Sakamakon raguwar lokacin da wadanda ba masana kimiyya ba suka lura da su, gami da masu lambu waɗanda suka ci gaba da lokacin shuka na bazara, [17] kuma sun yi gwaji tare da shuka shuke-shuke masu saurin yanayi masu zafi na tsire-tsire marasa asali. [18] Duk da yake lokutan tsiro na rani suna fadada, hunturu suna samun dumi da gajeren lokaci, wanda ke haifar da rage rufe kankara na hunturu a kan ruwa, a baya kankara, a baya ruwan da ya narke, [19] da kuma farkon tafkin.[20][21] Wasu abubuwan da suka faru a lokacin bazara, ko "phenophases", sun zama masu saurin kai ko marasa ganuwa; alal misali, jikin ruwa wanda ya taɓa daskarewa a kai a kai yawancin hunturu yanzu suna daskarewa akai-akai, kuma a baya ana ganin tsuntsaye masu ƙaura a wasu yankuna a duk shekara.[6][22][23]

Dangantaka da dumamar yanayi

[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]
Robin na Amurka ya daina ƙaura a wasu yankuna

Cikakken tasirin dumamar yanayi na duniya ana hasashen zai faru a nan gaba, amma masana kimiyya na yanayi sun ambaci lokacin da ake samu a matsayin tasirin sauƙin gani na Canjin yanayi wanda ya riga ya faru kuma yana ci gaba da faruwa.[24][25][26] Babban binciken tsarin tsarin halittu na bayanai akan nau'ikan shuke-shuke 542 a cikin ƙasashe 21 na Turai daga 1971-2000 ya nuna cewa kashi 78% na duk bayanan ganye, furanni, da 'ya'yan itace sun ci gaba yayin da kashi 3% kawai suka jinkirta sosai, kuma waɗannan abubuwan lura sun dace da ma'aunin da aka lura da dumama. [27][28] Irin waɗannan canje-canje a cikin ilimin shuke-shuke da dabbobi suna faruwa a duk faɗin ruwa, ruwa mai laushi, da ƙungiyoyin ƙasa da aka yi nazari, kuma waɗannan canje-canjen sun dace da tasirin da ake tsammani na dumamar duniya.[29]

Duk da yake ilimin halitta yana nuna alamar da ta gabata a fadin yankuna masu matsakaici na Arewacin Amurka, wani cikakken binciken da aka yi kwanan nan na subarctic ya nuna bambanci mafi girma a lokacin kore-up, tare da wasu yankuna suna ci gaba, kuma wasu ba su da wani yanayi mai ganewa a cikin shekaru 44 na baya.[30] Wani binciken ilimin halitta na shekaru 40 a kasar Sin ya sami karuwar zafi a wannan lokacin a wuraren da aka fi nazarin su, tare da shafukan da ke fuskantar sanyaya mafi yawa a kudu, yana nuna cewa bambancin zafin jiki tare da latitude yana raguwa a can.[31] Wannan binciken ya kuma tabbatar da cewa lokacin creep yana da alaƙa da dumama, amma tasirin ba layi ba ne - phenophases ya ci gaba da ƙasa tare da dumama mafi girma, kuma ya jinkirta tare da sanyaya mafi girma.[31]

Ƙananan hunturu da lokutan girma masu tsawo na iya zama fa'ida ga al'umma daga dumamar yanayi, amma tasirin ci gaba na iya haifar da mummunar sakamako ga yawan mutane. Misali na dusar ƙanƙara ya yi hasashen cewa dumama na 3 zuwa 5 ° C a Yammacin Amurka na iya haifar da dusar ƙara mai narkewa ya faru kamar watanni biyu da suka gabata, tare da tasiri mai zurfi akan hydroelectricity, amfani da ƙasa, noma, da kuma kula da ruwa.[32] Tun daga shekara ta 1980, dusar ƙanƙara da ke tattare da shi da kuma dumama da ke tattane da shi an haɗa shi da karuwa a tsawon da tsananin lokacin gobarar daji a can.[33]

Manazarta

[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]
  1. ↑ Maxwell, Kerry (2006-09-18). "Macmillan English Dictionary Word Of The Week Archive - "Christmas creep"". New Words. Macmillan Publishers. Archived from the original on 2007-03-20. Retrieved 2007-12-26. ...season creep, earlier spring weather and seasonal shifts caused by global climate change
  2. ↑ Maxwell, Kerry (December 2007). "A review of 2007 in twelve words". MED Magazine. Macmillan English Dictionaries. Retrieved 2007-12-23. It's a classic case of the newly identified phenomenon of season creep, where Winters are warmer and Spring arrives earlier.
  3. ↑ Schwartz, M. D.; Ahas, R.; Aasa, A. (2006). "Onset of spring starting earlier across the Northern Hemisphere". Global Change Biology. 12 (2): 343–351. Bibcode:2006GCBio..12..343S. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01097.x. S2CID 86329402. SI first leaf dates, measuring change in the start of 'early spring' (roughly the time of shrub budburst and lawn first greening), are getting earlier in nearly all parts of the Northern Hemisphere. The average rate of change over the 1955–2002 period is approximately -1.2 days per decade.
  4. 1 2 Cleland, E.E.; Chiariello, N.R.; Loarie, S.R.; Mooney, H.A.; Field, C.B. (2006). "Diverse responses of phenology to global changes in a grassland ecosystem". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 103 (37): 13740–4. Bibcode:2006PNAS..10313740C. doi:10.1073/pnas.0600815103. PMC 1560087. PMID 16954189. Shifting plant phenology (i.e., timing of flowering and other developmental events) in recent decades establishes that species and ecosystems are already responding to global environmental change. Earlier flowering and an extended period of active plant growth across much of the northern hemisphere have been interpreted as responses to warming.
  5. ↑ McFedries, Paul (August 2006). "Changing Climate, Changing Language". IEEE Spectrum. Archived from the original on 15 April 2013. Retrieved 2007-12-23. Did spring seem to arrive a bit earlier than usual this year in your part of the world? That wouldn't be surprising, because we seem to be undergoing season creep: earlier spring weather and other gradual seasonal shifts, particularly those caused by global climate change.
  6. 1 2 Skinner, Victor (2007-02-17). "Area temperatures expected to rise back to 'normal'". Traverse City Record-Eagle. Archived from the original on 28 July 2011. Retrieved 2007-12-27. ...the west arm of Grand Traverse Bay ... has only frozen over five times since 1987,.... Between 1851 and 1980, [it] froze at least seven years per decade, ... the bay-freezing trend shows 'a long-term gradual decline with a significant decline in the past 25 to 35 years.'
  7. ↑ Stutz, Bruce (2006-04-21). "Suddenly spring". The Record (Bergen County, NJ). Archived from the original on 2011-05-16. Retrieved 2007-12-23. In fact, due to global warming, spring across the Northern Hemisphere arrives a week or more earlier than it did 30 years ago, a phenomenon starting to be known as "season creep."
  8. ↑ "Climate changes shift springtime : A Europe-wide study has provided "conclusive proof" that the seasons are changing, with spring arriving earlier each year, researchers say". Science/Nature. BBC News. 2006-08-25. Retrieved 2007-12-28. Spring was beginning on average six to eight days earlier than it did 30 years ago, the researchers said.
  9. ↑ Sherry, R.A.; Zhou, X.; Gu, S.; Arnone Iii, J.A.; Schimel, D.S.; Verburg, P.S.; Wallace, L.L.; Luo, Y. (2007). "Divergence of reproductive phenology under climate warming". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 104 (1): 198–202. Bibcode:2007PNAS..104..198S. doi:10.1073/pnas.0605642104. PMC 1713188. PMID 17182748. Phenology is a sensitive biosphere indicator of climate change. Long-term surface data and remote sensing measurements indicate that plant phenology has been advanced by 2–3 days in spring and delayed by 0.3–1.6 days in autumn per decade in the past 30–80 years, resulting in extension of the growing season.
  10. ↑ "Man bags at ten paces? Just look it up". Scotsman.com News. 2007-06-04. Retrieved 2007-12-23. While the full impact of global warming is still to be experienced, many scientists are warning that it is responsible for earlier springs leading to longer summers.
  11. ↑ Miller-rushing, A.J.; Katsuki, T.; Primack, R.B.; Ishii, Y.; Lee, S.D.; Higuchi, H. (2007). "Impact of global warming on a group of related species and their hybrids: cherry tree (Rosaceae) flowering at Mt. Takao, Japan". American Journal of Botany. 94 (9): 1470–8. doi:10.3732/ajb.94.9.1470. PMID 21636514. We examined a 25-yr record (1981–2005) of flowering times for 97 trees, representing 17 species and hybrids of cherry (Cerasus sp. or Prunus sp.) grown at Mt. Takao, in Tokyo, Japan. The cherry trees flowered earlier over time, by an average of 5.5 d over the 25-yr study.
  12. ↑ Cleland, E.E.; Chuine, I.; Menzel, A.; Mooney, H.A.; Schwartz, M.D. (2007). "Shifting plant phenology in response to global change" (PDF). Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 22 (7): 357–365. Bibcode:2007TEcoE..22..357C. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2007.04.003. PMID 17478009. S2CID 34408962. Archived from the original (PDF) on 10 September 2008. Retrieved 2007-12-29. The longest and best known phenological records come from the Far East and Europe, including ... the 1300+-year Kyoto cherry blossom time series [37]... These longterm historical records can serve as proxies for temperature where thermometer data are unavailable.
  13. ↑ Abu-asab, M.S.; Peterson, P.M.; Shetler, S.G.; Orli, S.S. (2001). "Earlier plant flowering in spring as a response to global warming in the Washington, DC, area" (PDF). Biodiversity and Conservation. 10 (4): 597–612. Bibcode:2001BiCon..10..597A. doi:10.1023/A:1016667125469. S2CID 21391086. Retrieved 2009-06-27.[permanent dead link]
  14. ↑ Chung, Uran; Mack, Liz; Yun, Jin I.; Kim, Soo-Hyung (2011). Harvey, Jeffrey A (ed.). "Predicting the Timing of Cherry Blossoms in Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic States in Response to Climate Change". PLoS ONE. 6 (11): e27439. Bibcode:2011PLoSO...627439C. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0027439. PMC 3210174. PMID 22087317. The expected changes in phenology will have a substantial effect on the reproduction, distribution and productivity of trees as the coincidence of ecosystem processes, such as flowering and the emergence of pollinators, is disrupted. Some plants may also become less resistant to environmental challenges. For example, shorter and warmer winters can reduce the cold hardening of trees, leaving them vulnerable to frost injury.
  15. ↑ Richardson, A.D.; Bailey, A.S.; Denny, E.G.; Martin, C.W.; O'Keefe, J. (2006). "Phenology of a northern hardwood forest canopy". Global Change Biology. 12 (7): 1174–1188. Bibcode:2006GCBio..12.1174R. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.495.6146. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01164.x. S2CID 10717334. ...significant trends (P≤0.05) towards an earlier spring (e.g. sugar maple, rate of change=0.18 days earlier/yr), consistent with other studies documenting measurable climate change effects on the onset of spring in both North America and Europe. Our results also suggest that green canopy duration has increased by about 10 days (e.g. sugar maple, rate of change=0.21 days longer/yr) over the period of study.
  16. ↑ Linderholm, H.W. (2006). "Growing season changes in the last century" (PDF). Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 137 (1–2): 1–14. Bibcode:2006AgFM..137....1L. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.03.006. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2011-07-20. Retrieved 2009-06-27. The evidence points to a lengthening of the growing season of ca. 10–20 days in the last few decades, where an earlier onset of the start is most prominent. This extension of the growing season has been associated with recent global warming.
  17. ↑ Smith, Virginia A. (2007-04-07). "Out on a limb: Gardeners excited by the early warmth — call it "season creep" - are experimenting with earlier planting and new varieties". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved 2007-12-23. ...earlier springs — an idea known as "season creep" — may or may not be related to long-term warming trends. Yet the reality of year-to-year weather weirdness recently, coupled with the ever-present impulse to outsmart Mother Nature, has prompted more than a few gardeners to shun conventional horticultural wisdom.
  18. ↑ Williams, Brad (2007-04-08). "Dogwoods to frogs, tulips to snow, Knox shows signs of warming". Knoxville News Sentinel. Retrieved 2007-12-23. Knoxville is now in hardiness Zone 7, a zone where more southern trees and shrubs flourish. The zone shift can be seen all across the northern half of the state. It effectively means plants that once had difficulty growing here are now finding it easier to thrive, said Lisa Stanley, master gardener at Stanley's Greenhouses
  19. ↑ Magnuson, J.J.; Robertson, D.M.; Benson, B.J.; Wynne, R.H.; Livingstone, D.M.; Arai, T.; Assel, R.A.; Barry, R.G.; Card, V.; Kuusisto, E.; et al. (2000). "Historical Trends in Lake and River Ice Cover in the Northern Hemisphere". Science. 289 (5485): 1743–1746. Bibcode:2000Sci...289.1743M. doi:10.1126/science.289.5485.1743. PMID 10976066. S2CID 37999241. Freeze and breakup dates of ice on lakes and rivers provide consistent evidence of later freezing and earlier breakup around the Northern Hemisphere from 1846 to 1995. Over these 150 years, changes in freeze dates averaged 5.8 days per 100 years later, and changes in breakup dates averaged 6.5 days per 100 years earlier;
  20. ↑ Hodgkins, G.A.; Ii, I.C.J.; Huntington, T.G. (2002). "Historical Changes In Lake Ice-out Dates As Indicators Of Climate Change In New England, 1850--2000" (PDF). International Journal of Climatology. 22 (15): 1819–1827. Bibcode:2002IJCli..22.1819H. doi:10.1002/joc.857. S2CID 129244310. Retrieved 2007-12-28. Various studies have shown that changes over time in spring ice-out dates can be used as indicators of climate change.... Ice-out dates have become significantly earlier in New England since the 1800s
  21. ↑ "Early risers". New Scientist. 167 (2241): 21. 2000-06-03. Retrieved 2007-12-27. North America's Great Lakes are reaching their spring high-water levels a month earlier than they did when records began in 1860. Levels normally rise in the spring as snow melts, but regional temperatures have been rising for the past 90 years, and winter ice cover has been shrinking.
  22. ↑ Wake, Cameron (2006-12-04). "Climate Change in the Northeast: Past, Present, and Future" (PDF). Climate Change in the Hudson Valley, NY. Archived from the original (PDF) on 7 September 2008. Retrieved 2007-12-27. A particularly interesting lake ice record comes from Lake Champlain where they record the ice in date.... Of more significance is the fact that the ice has not frozen in the area of observation in 16 of the past 30 years.
  23. ↑ "Why Less Winter Ice is the Pitts for State". The Detroit Free Press. 2006-04-03. Retrieved 2007-12-23. Grand Traverse Bay ... froze at least seven winters out of every 10; the rate slipped in the 1980s. In the 1990s, the bay froze only three times. So far this decade, once. Observers see that as one more sign of what some call "season creep," or evidence of global warming.
  24. ↑ Cleland, E.E.; Chiariello, N.R.; Loarie, S.R.; Mooney, H.A.; Field, C.B. (2006). "Diverse responses of phenology to global changes in a grassland ecosystem". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 103 (37): 13740–4. Bibcode:2006PNAS..10313740C. doi:10.1073/pnas.0600815103. PMC 1560087. PMID 16954189. Shifting plant phenology (i.e., timing of flowering and other developmental events) in recent decades establishes that species and ecosystems are already responding to global environmental change. Earlier flowering and an extended period of active plant growth across much of the northern hemisphere have been interpreted as responses to warming.
  25. ↑ "Man bags at ten paces? Just look it up". Scotsman.com News. 2007-06-04. Retrieved 2007-12-23. While the full impact of global warming is still to be experienced, many scientists are warning that it is responsible for earlier springs leading to longer summers.
  26. ↑ Linderholm, H.W. (2006). "Growing season changes in the last century" (PDF). Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 137 (1–2): 1–14. Bibcode:2006AgFM..137....1L. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.03.006. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2011-07-20. Retrieved 2009-06-27. The evidence points to a lengthening of the growing season of ca. 10–20 days in the last few decades, where an earlier onset of the start is most prominent. This extension of the growing season has been associated with recent global warming.
  27. ↑ "Climate changes shift springtime : A Europe-wide study has provided "conclusive proof" that the seasons are changing, with spring arriving earlier each year, researchers say". Science/Nature. BBC News. 2006-08-25. Retrieved 2007-12-28. Spring was beginning on average six to eight days earlier than it did 30 years ago, the researchers said.
  28. ↑ Menzel, A.; Sparks, T.H.; Estrella, N.; Koch, E.; Aasa, A.; Ahas, R.; Alm-kübler, K.; Bissolli, P.; Braslavská, O.; Briede, A.; et al. (2006). "European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern". Global Change Biology. 12 (10): 1969–1976. Bibcode:2006GCBio..12.1969M. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.167.960. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01193.x. S2CID 84406339. Our results showed that 78% of all leafing, flowering and fruiting records advanced (30% significantly) and only 3% were significantly delayed, whereas the signal of leaf colouring/fall is ambiguous.
  29. ↑ Parmesan, C. (2006). "Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change". Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 37 (1): 637–69. doi:10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100. Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups. These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming...
  30. ↑ Delbart, N.; Picard, G.; Kergoat, L.; Letoan, T.; Quegan, S.; Dye, D.; Woodward, I.; Fedotova, V. (2007). "Spring phenology in taiga and tundra". American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2007. Bibcode:2007AGUFM.B53D..07D. Archived from the original on 2012-12-20. Retrieved 2007-12-29. The model was applied over the whole low arctic region from 1958 to 2002. In North East Canada and North East Russia, no remarkable trend is found in the timing of green- up, whereas a ten-day advance is recorded in the last few decades in North Alaska and in North West Siberia.
  31. 1 2 Jingyun, Z.; Quansheng, G.; Zhixin, H. (2002). "Impacts of climate warming on plants phenophases in China for the last 40 years" (PDF). Chinese Science Bulletin. 47 (21): 1826–1831. Bibcode:2002ChSBu..47.1826Z. doi:10.1360/02tb9399 (inactive 12 July 2025). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 1, 2004. Retrieved 2009-06-27. There is a statistically meaningful relation between inter-annual changes in the spring phenophase and the spring temperature in China for the last 40 years.... The response of phenophase advance or delay to temperature change is nonlinear.... the rate of the phenophase difference with latitude becomes smaller too.CS1 maint: DOI inactive as of ga Yuli, 2025 (link)
  32. ↑ Rauscher, S. A.; Pal, J. S.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Benedetti, M. M. (2008). "Future changes in snowmelt-driven runoff timing over the western US" (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters. 35 (16): L16703. Bibcode:2008GeoRL..3516703R. doi:10.1029/2008GL034424.
  33. ↑ Westerling, L.; Hidalgo, G.; Cayan, R.; Swetnam, W. (Aug 2006). "Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. Forest wildfire activity". Science. 313 (5789): 940–943. Bibcode:2006Sci...313..940W. doi:10.1126/science.1128834. ISSN 0036-8075. PMID 16825536. |hdl-access= requires |hdl= (help)
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