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Manufar yanayi

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Jihohi ta hanyar shekara ta tsaka-tsaki na yanayi: sauyin yanayi tsaka-tsakin.      
Wannan adadi yana nuna ƙimar da za a iya fitar da hayaki na CO2 na duniya bayan shekara ta 2024 don iyakance karuwar zafin jiki na duniya zuwa 1.5, 1.7, ko 2.0 digiri Celsius ba tare da dogaro da hayaki mara kyau ba.[1]
Taswirar Duniya don Ci Gaban Ci gaba mai dorewa Manufar 13 Mai nunawa 13. A.1: Tattalin Arziki na Green Climate Fund na dala biliyan 100, 2018.
Kasuwancin amfani da makamashi daga hanyoyin sabuntawa ga kasashen EU da EEA 2020 da 2021, idan aka kwatanta da manufofi na kasa na 2020. EU28 (ciki har da United Kingdom) ya yi alkawarin matsakaicin kashi 20 cikin 100 na makamashi mai sabuntawa don 2020, kuma EU27 ya kai kashi 22.

Manufar yanayiko sauyin yanayi, burin yanayi ko alkawarin yanayi shine ƙaddamarwa ma na dogon lokaci don Manufofin yanayi da Manufofin makamashi tare da manufar iyakancewa Canjin yanayi. Masu bincike a ciki, da sauransu, Kwamitin yanayi na Majalisar Dinkin Duniya sun gano yiwuwar Sakamakon dumamar yanayi ga mutane da yanayi a matakai daban-daban na dumamar yanayi. Dangane da wannan, 'yan siyasa a kasashe da yawa sun amince da manufofin zafin jiki don dumama, wanda shine tushen ƙididdigar kasafin kudin carbon da aka ƙididdige ta kimiyya da hanyoyin cimma waɗannan manufofi. Wannan kuma ya zama tushen manufofi na fitarwa na duniya da na ƙasa don iskar gas, manufofi don samar da makamashi mara burbushin halittu da ingantaccen amfani da makamashe, da kuma girman matakan da aka tsara don rage sauyin yanayi da daidaitawa.

Akalla ƙasashe 164 sun aiwatar da manufofin yanayi a cikin Dokokin yanayi su na kasa.[2]

Manufofin yanayi na duniya

[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]
Manufofin kasashe don lokacin da ya kamata a haramta sabon tallace-tallace na motocin man fetur: 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s    
Yawan jam'iyyun da ke cikin yarjejeniyar muhalli da yawa

Manufofin yanayi na duniya sune manufofi da kasashe da yawa suka amince da su, gami da taron Majalisar Dinkin Duniya na Canjin Yanayi (COP). Manufofin da ake magana akai sune:

  • Yarjejeniyar Yanayi - yarjejeniyar muhalli ta kasa da kasa da aka amince da ita a Taron Rio a Brazil a shekarar 1992.
  • Manufofin shekara ta 2008 zuwa 2012: A cikin Yarjejeniyar Kyoto ta 1997, ƙasashe 160 sun himmatu ga rage hayakin iskar gas da matsakaicin kashi 5.2 a cikin shekara ta 2008 da 2012 idan aka kwatanta da matakan 1990.[3]
  • Manufofin 2013 zuwa 2020: A cikin gyaran Doha ga Yarjejeniyar Kyoto, ƙananan ƙasashe na I sun himmatu ga rage fitar da su da akalla kashi 18 cikin dari a cikin 2013 zuwa 2020 idan aka kwatanta da 1990.
  • Manufofin 2030: Ƙasashe 105 sun yi alkawarin sare daji a COP26 a cikin 2021 don kawo ƙarshen sare daji zuwa 2030.[2] Kasashe 105 da aka sanya hannu dangane da COP26 da COP27 alkawarin rage hayakin methane da kashi 30 cikin dari nan da 2030 idan aka kwatanta da 2020.
    • Kasashe 105 sun yi alkawarin sare daji a COP26 a cikin 2021 don kawo karshen sare daji zuwa 2030.[4]
    • Kasashe 105 da aka sanya hannu dangane da COP26 da COP27 alkawarin rage hayakin methane da kashi 30 cikin dari nan da 2030 idan aka kwatanta da 2020. [5][6]
  • Manufar lamba 13 a cikin manufofi na duniya don Ci gaba mai ɗorewa a cikin Agenda 2030 tana ma'amala da matakin yanayi, kuma Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ta yanke shawarar a cikin 2015. Daga cikin wasu abubuwa, ya haɗa da Asusun Green Climate na Majalisar Dinkin Duniya.

Ƙididdigar burin fitarwa

[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]

Manufar fitar da hayaki ko manufa ta rage hayaki mai guba kayan aiki ne na manufofi na kasa da kasa rage hayaki na hayaki mai muhalli da kuma babban ginshiƙi na manufofin yanayi.[7][8][9][10][11] Yawanci sun haɗa da la'akari mai yawa game da kasafin kuɗi na hayaki, wanda aka lissafa ta amfani da yawan dumama ta hanyar daidaitaccen fitar da carbon dioxide, yanayin zafi na tarihi, matakin amincewa da ake so da matsakaicin zafin duniya don zama a ƙasa.[12]

Ana iya bambanta "maƙasudin fitar da hayaki" daga kasafin kuɗin fitar da hayaki, saboda ana iya saita manufar fitar da hayaki a cikin ƙasashen duniya ko na ƙasa bisa maƙasudai ban da takamaiman yanayin zafin duniya.  Wannan ya haɗa da manufofin da aka ƙirƙira don jin daɗinsu na siyasa, maimakon kasafin kuɗi da aka ƙaddara a kimiyance don cimma takamaiman yanayin zafi.i.[13][14]

Ƙaddamar da ƙasa game da burin fitar da hayaki ya dogara ne akan la'akari da hankali game da NDCs da aka yi alkawari (ƙaddamar da gudummawa ta ƙasa), yiwuwar tattalin arziki da zamantakewa, da kuma dandano siyasa.[15] Kasafin kudin carbon na iya samar da bangarorin siyasa da ilimin yadda za'a iya fitar da carbon kafin yiwuwar isa wani matakin zafin jiki, amma takamaiman manufofi na fitar da hayaki suna la'akari da yawa. Hanyar da aka ƙayyade waɗannan manufofi ta bambanta sosai daga ƙasa zuwa ƙasa. Bambancin burin fitar da hayaki da lokacin kammala su ya dogara da dalilai kamar lissafin hayaki na amfani da ƙasa, ikon gandun daji na ƙasa, da kuma fitar da hayakin sufuri na ƙasashe.[16] Abu mai mahimmanci, burin fitar da hayaki ya dogara da karɓar da aka yi la'akari da shi.

Hanyoyi da yawa na fitar da hayaki, kasafin kuɗi da manufofi suma sun dogara da aiwatar da fasahar fitar da hayaniyar.[17] Wadannan fasahohin da ba a inganta su ba a halin yanzu ana hasashen su janye hayaki har ma da cewa ba a rage hayaki ba.

Tasiri

[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]

Ƙasashe da yawa sun yi niyyar fitar da hayaki sama da ƙididdigar hayaki da aka ba da izini ta kimiyya don kasancewa ƙasa da wani ƙimar zafin jiki.[18][19] A cikin 2015, ƙasashe da yawa sun yi alkawarin NDCs don iyakance karuwar matsakaicin zafin jiki na duniya zuwa ƙasa da 2 ° C sama da matakan masana'antu.[20] Yawancin manyan masu fitar da GHGs, duk da haka, suna kan hanya don tura matsakaicin zafin jiki na duniya zuwa kusan 4 ° C.[18] Wasu daga cikin wadannan tsinkaye sun saba wa yarjejeniyar da aka yi a cikin Yarjejeniyar Paris ta 2015, ma'ana kasashe ba sa bin alkawarinsu na NDC.  

Bugu da kari, ba shi da tabbas nawa tasiri da yawa da ake hari da kuma manufofin da ke tare da su.  Misali, tare da kasashen da ke da yawan iskar carbon da ake amfani da su, ana aiwatar da su sosai, daidaitawa da daidaita matakan manufofin kasa da kasa suna tantance tasirin abubuwan da ake hari.  Bugu da kari, ana gabatar da manufofi masu buri da yawa kuma ana zartar da su amma ba a aiwatar da su a zahiri ko tsari ba, ko kuma suna da sakamakon da ba a yi niyya ba.  Shirin ETS na kasar Sin (tsarin ciniki na fitar da hayaki), yayin da ake ganin yana da tasiri wajen rage hayakin da ake samarwa, ya kuma sa kaimi ga fitar da hayaki zuwa waje, wanda ke ba da gudummawa wajen kara rashin daidaiton jigilar carbon a tsakanin larduna daban daban na kasar Sin.]  Ƙimar ETS kuma ba ta ƙididdige fitar da hayaki mai tushe ba

Kasashe da yawa suna da niyyar kaiwa ga fitar da hayaki a cikin 'yan shekarun da suka gabata.[16] Don cimma wannan burin duk da haka, dole ne a sami canji mai mahimmanci a cikin ababen more rayuwa na makamashi.[21] Misali, a Amurka, ƙungiyoyin siyasa suna ƙoƙarin canzawa daga wutar lantarki da man fetur ta hanyar maye gurbin shuke-shuke da iskar gas (NGCC).[22] Sauran kasashe kamar Netherlands sun tilasta wa Kotun Gundumar Hague ta rage hayakin gas dinta da kashi 25% nan da shekarar 2020. Kotun ta zartar da wasu sababbin abubuwa (Milieudefensie v. Royal Dutch Shell) don rage hayakin dioxide da kashi 45% nan da shekara ta 2030.[23] Koyaya mutane da yawa sun sami wannan canjin ba shi da mahimmanci don isa ga hayaki-zero. [22][24] Ƙarin canje-canje masu mahimmanci, alal misali ta amfani da makamashi na biomass tare da kamawa da adanawa (BECCS) ana ba da shawarar a matsayin zaɓi mai yiwuwa don sauyawa zuwa ƙasashe masu fitar da hayaki.[25][26]

  1. ↑ Global Carbon Project (2024-11-03). "Global CO2 pathways using Remaining Carbon Budgets". Figures from the Global Carbon Budget 2024. University of Exeter. Retrieved 2025-04-03.
  2. ↑ harrisson, thomas (2017-05-11). "Mapped: Climate change laws around the world". The database, produced by the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and the Sabin Center on Climate Change Law, includes more than 1,200 relevant policies across 164 countries (in Turanci). Retrieved 2023-08-14.
  3. ↑ "Industrialized countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2%". unfccc.int. 1997-12-11. Retrieved 2023-08-14.
  4. ↑ Messetchkova, Iana (2021-11-02). "Glasgow Leaders' Declaration on Forests and Land Use". UN Climate Change conference UK 2021. Archived from the original on 2023-04-18. Retrieved 2022-11-26.CS1 maint: BOT: original-url status unknown (link)
  5. ↑ Lai, Olivia (2021-11-03). "105 Countries Join Global Methane Pledge to Slash Methane Emissions 30% by 2030". Earth.Org (in Turanci).
  6. ↑ "Homepage | Global Methane Pledge". www.globalmethanepledge.org. Retrieved 2022-11-26.
  7. ↑ Meinshausen, Malte; Meinshausen, Nicolai; Hare, William; Raper, Sarah C. B.; Frieler, Katja; Knutti, Reto; Frame, David J.; Allen, Myles R. (30 April 2009). "Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C". Nature. 458 (7242): 1158–1162. Bibcode:2009Natur.458.1158M. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.337.3632. doi:10.1038/nature08017. ISSN 1476-4687. PMID 19407799. S2CID 4342402.
  8. ↑ Matthews, H. Damon; Zickfeld, Kirsten; Knutti, Reto; Allen, Myles R. (2018). "Focus on cumulative emissions, global carbon budgets and the implications for climate mitigation targets". Environmental Research Letters. 13 (1): 010201. Bibcode:2018ERL....13a0201D. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c9. ISSN 1748-9326.
  9. ↑ Raupach, Michael R.; Davis, Steven J.; Peters, Glen P.; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Jotzo, Frank; Vuuren, Detlef P. van (21 September 2014). "Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions". Nature Climate Change. 4 (10): 873–879. Bibcode:2014NatCC...4..873R. doi:10.1038/nclimate2384. ISSN 1758-6798. |hdl-access= requires |hdl= (help)
  10. ↑ Jackson, Tim. "2050 is too late – we must drastically cut emissions much sooner". The Conversation (in Turanci). Retrieved 2019-09-23.
  11. ↑ Zickfeld, K.; Arora, V. K.; Gillett, N. P. (2012-03-01). "Is the climate response to CO2 emissions path dependent?". Geophysical Research Letters. 39 (5): L05703. Bibcode:2012GeoRL..39.5703Z. doi:10.1029/2011gl050205. ISSN 1944-8007.
  12. ↑ Rogelj, Joeri; Forster, Piers M.; Kriegler, Elmar; Smith, Christopher J.; Séférian, Roland (17 July 2019). "Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets". Nature. 571 (7765): 335–342. Bibcode:2019Natur.571..335R. doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1368-z. PMID 31316194. |hdl-access= requires |hdl= (help)
  13. ↑ Babiker, Mustafa H.; Eckaus, Richard S. (2002-09-01). "Rethinking the Kyoto Emissions Targets". Climatic Change. 54 (4): 399–414. doi:10.1023/A:1016139500611. ISSN 0165-0009. S2CID 154819244.
  14. ↑ Zickfeld, Kirsten; Eby, Michael; Matthews, H. Damon; Weaver, Andrew J. (2009-09-22). "Setting cumulative emissions targets to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 106 (38): 16129–16134. doi:10.1073/pnas.0805800106. ISSN 0027-8424. PMC 2752604. PMID 19706489.
  15. ↑ Babiker, Mustafa H.; Eckaus, Richard S. (2002). "Rethinking the Kyoto Emissions Targets". Climatic Change. 54 (4): 399–414. doi:10.1023/A:1016139500611. S2CID 154819244.
  16. 1 2 van Soest, Heleen L.; den Elzen, Michel G. J.; van Vuuren, Detlef P. (2021-04-09). "Net-zero emission targets for major emitting countries consistent with the Paris Agreement". Nature Communications. 12 (1): 2140. Bibcode:2021NatCo..12.2140V. doi:10.1038/s41467-021-22294-x. ISSN 2041-1723. PMC 8035189 Check |pmc= value (help). PMID 33837206 Check |pmid= value (help).
  17. ↑ Johansson, Daniel J A; Azar, Christian; Lehtveer, Mariliis; Peters, Glen P (2020-12-05). "The role of negative carbon emissions in reaching the Paris climate targets: The impact of target formulation in integrated assessment models". Environmental Research Letters. 15 (12): 124024. Bibcode:2020ERL....15l4024J. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abc3f0. ISSN 1748-9326.
  18. 1 2 Korppoo, Anna; Kokorin, Alexey (2017-02-17). "Russia's 2020 GHG emissions target: Emission trends and implementation". Climate Policy (in Turanci). 17 (2): 113–130. doi:10.1080/14693062.2015.1075373. ISSN 1469-3062. S2CID 154257631. |hdl-access= requires |hdl= (help)
  19. ↑ "Home | Climate Action Tracker". climateactiontracker.org. Retrieved 2021-04-28.
  20. ↑ "Paris Agreement, FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev.1" (PDF). UNFCCC secretariat. 12 December 2015. Retrieved 28 April 2021.
  21. ↑ Pye, S.; Broad, O.; Bataille, C.; Brockway, P.; Daly, H. E.; Freeman, R.; Gambhir, A.; Geden, O.; Rogan, F.; Sanghvi, S.; Tomei, J. (2021-02-07). "Modelling net-zero emissions energy systems requires a change in approach". Climate Policy (in Turanci). 21 (2): 222–231. doi:10.1080/14693062.2020.1824891. ISSN 1469-3062. |hdl-access= requires |hdl= (help)
  22. 1 2 Sproul, Evan; Barlow, Jay; Quinn, Jason C. (2020-12-01). "Time-Resolved Cost Analysis of Natural Gas Power Plant Conversion to Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage to Support Net-Zero Emissions". Environmental Science & Technology (in Turanci). 54 (23): 15338–15346. Bibcode:2020EnST...5415338S. doi:10.1021/acs.est.0c04041. ISSN 0013-936X. PMID 33183006. S2CID 226850670.
  23. ↑ Benoit, Mayer (July 2022). "The Duty of Care of Fossil-Fuel Producers for Climate Change Mitigation: Milieudefensie v. Royal Dutch Shell District Court of The Hague (The Netherlands)". ProQuest. 11. doi:10.1017/S2047102522000103. ProQuest 2688520401.
  24. ↑ Zhang, Xiaochun; Myhrvold, Nathan P.; Hausfather, Zeke; Caldeira, Ken (April 2016). "Climate benefits of natural gas as a bridge fuel and potential delay of near-zero energy systems". Applied Energy (in Turanci). 167: 317–322. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.10.016.
  25. ↑ Wang, Rui; Chang, Shiyan; Cui, Xueqin; Li, Jin; Ma, Linwei; Kumar, Amit; Nie, Yaoyu; Cai, Wenjia (January 2021). "Retrofitting coal‐fired power plants with biomass co‐firing and carbon capture and storage for net zero carbon emission: A plant‐by‐plant assessment framework". GCB Bioenergy (in Turanci). 13 (1): 143–160. doi:10.1111/gcbb.12756. ISSN 1757-1693.
  26. ↑ Tokimatsu, Koji; Yasuoka, Rieko; Nishio, Masahiro (January 2017). "Global zero emissions scenarios: The role of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage by forested land use". Applied Energy (in Turanci). 185: 1899–1906. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.11.077.
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