Rahoton Bincike na Farko na IPCC

Rahoton Bincike na Farko na IPCC
IPCC report (en)
Bayanai
Ta biyo baya	IPCC Second Assessment Report (en)
Maɗabba'a	Kungiyar gwamnatoci a kan Canjin Yanayi
Ranar wallafa	1990

Rahoton Ƙimar Farko ( FAR ) na Ƙungiyar gwamnatoci kan sauyin yanayi (IPCC) an kammala shi a cikin 1990. Ya kasance tushen tsarin Yarjejeniyar Majalisar Dinkin Duniya kan Sauyin Yanayi (UNFCCC). Wannan rahoto yana da tasiri ba kawai a kan kafa UNFCCC har ma a kan zaman farko na taron jam'iyyun ( COP), wanda aka gudanar a Berlin a cikin 1995. Sun ƙididdigewa da tabbaci cewa CO ₂ ya kasance alhakin sama da rabin ingantaccen tasirin greenhouse .

Sun yi hasashen cewa a karkashin yanayin "kasuwanci kamar yadda aka saba" (BAU), matsakaicin zafin jiki na duniya zai karu da kusan 0.3 ° C a kowace shekara goma a cikin karni na 21. Sun yanke hukunci cewa matsakaicin yanayin iska na duniya ya karu da 0.3 zuwa 0.6 °C a cikin shekaru 100 da suka gabata, wanda ya dace da tsinkaya na samfuran yanayi, amma kuma na girman girman yanayin yanayi. Binciken da ba a yarda da shi ba game da ingantaccen tasirin greenhouse ba zai iya zama ba na shekaru goma ko fiye.  

Rahoton kari na 1992 sabuntawa ne, wanda aka nema a cikin mahallin tattaunawar kan UNFCCC a Taron Duniya (Taron Majalisar Dinkin Duniya kan Muhalli da Ci gaba) a Rio de Janeiro a shekarar 1992. Babban ƙarshe shi ne cewa bincike tun daga 1990 "ba ya shafar fahimtarmu ta asali game da kimiyya na tasirin greenhouse kuma ko dai ya tabbatar ko bai tabbatar da canjin manyan ƙaddamarwa na binciken kimiyya na IPCC na farko ba". Ya lura cewa simulations na ɗan lokaci (wanda ya dogara da lokaci), wanda ya kasance na farko a cikin FAR, yanzu an inganta shi, amma bai haɗa da canje-canje na aerosol ko ozone ba.

Bayani na gaba ɗaya

An bayar da rahoton a cikin manyan sassan uku, wanda ya dace da ƙungiyoyin aiki guda uku na masana kimiyya waɗanda IPCC ta kafa.

• Kungiyar Aiki ta I: Binciken Kimiyya na Canjin Yanayi, wanda J.T. Houghton, G.J. Jenkins da J.J. Ephraums suka shirya
• Kungiyar Aiki ta II: Tasirin Tasirin Canjin Yanayi, wanda WJ McG ya shirya. Tegart, GW Sheldon da DC Griffiths
• Rukunin Aiki na III: Shirye-shiryen Amsa na IPCC

Kowane sashi ya haɗa da taƙaitaccen bayani ga masu tsara manufofi. An bi wannan tsari a cikin Rahotanni na Bincike na gaba.

Takaitaccen bayani game da taƙaitaccen bayani na masu tsara manufofi na rahoton WG na ya haɗa da:

• Muna da tabbacin wadannan: akwai tasirin greenhouse na halitta... ; fitarwa sakamakon ayyukan ɗan adam yana ƙara yawan iskar gas: CO₂, methane, CFCs da nitrous oxide. Wadannan karuwa za su inganta tasirin greenhouse, wanda zai haifar da matsakaicin ƙarin dumama na farfajiyar Duniya. Babban iskar gas, tururi na ruwa, zai karu don mayar da martani ga dumamar duniya kuma ya kara inganta shi.
• Muna lissafawa da amincewa cewa: ... CO₂ ya kasance da alhakin fiye da rabin tasirin greenhouse; iskar gas mai tsawo zai buƙaci raguwa nan da nan a cikin hayaki daga ayyukan ɗan adam sama da 60% don daidaita yawan su a matakan yau.
• Dangane da samfuran yanzu, muna hasashen: a ƙarƙashin [BAU] karuwar matsakaicin zafin jiki na duniya a cikin karni na [21st] na kimanin 0.3 ° C a kowace shekara goma (tare da rashin tabbas na 0.2 zuwa 0.5 ° C a kowane shekara goma); wannan ya fi wanda aka gani a cikin shekaru 10,000 da suka gabata; a ƙarƙashin wasu ... abubuwan da ke faruwa waɗanda ke ɗaukar matakan sarrafawa da ci gaba, ƙimar ƙaruwa a cikin matsakaicin zafin jiki na duniya na kusan 0.2 ° C [zuwa] game da 0.1 ° C a kowace shekara goma.[to]    
• Akwai rashin tabbas da yawa a cikin tsinkayenmu musamman game da lokaci, girman da kuma tsarin yanki na canjin yanayi, saboda rashin cikakkiyar fahimtarmu game da: tushe da nutsewar GHGs; girgije; teku; kankara.
• Hukuncinmu shi ne cewa: matsakaicin yanayin iska na duniya ya karu da 0.3 zuwa 0.6 °C a cikin shekaru 100 da suka gabata... ; Girman wannan dumama ya dace da tsinkayen tsarin yanayi, amma kuma yana da girman girman bambancin yanayi na halitta. Don haka karuwar da aka lura na iya zama saboda wannan bambancin yanayi; a madadin wannan bambancin da sauran abubuwan ɗan adam na iya rage yawan dumama da mutum ya haifar. Binciken da ba a san shi ba game da ingantaccen tasirin greenhouse ba zai yiwu ba na shekaru goma ko fiye. 
• a karkashin kasuwancin IPCC kamar yadda aka saba fitarwa, matsakaicin matsakaicin matakin teku na duniya na kimanin 6 cm a kowace shekara goma a cikin karni na gaba (tare da rashin tabbas na 3 - 10 cm a kowace shekaru goma), galibi saboda fadada zafi na teku da narkewar wasu kankara na ƙasa. Hawan da aka yi hasashen kusan 20 cm ne ... zuwa 2030, da kuma 65 cm zuwa ƙarshen ƙarni na gaba.    

Rashin jituwa

Lokacin da yake tattauna game da siyasa na rahoton kimantawa na IPCC masanin yanayin yanayi Kevin E. Trenberth ya ce:

SPM [Summary for policymasers] an amince da shi layi ta hanyar gwamnatoci ... Tattaunawar a nan ita ce masana kimiyya sun ƙayyade abin da za a iya faɗi, amma gwamnatoci sun ƙayyaye yadda za a iya faɗar shi. Tattaunawa tana faruwa a kan kalmomi don tabbatar da daidaito, daidaito, bayyana saƙo, da kuma dacewa da fahimta da manufofi. Tsarin IPCC ya dogara da kyakkyawar niyyar mahalarta wajen samar da daidaitattun kimantawa. Koyaya, a Shanghai, ya bayyana cewa akwai ƙoƙari na ɓoyewa, kuma watakila rikice-rikice, saƙonnin da ke cikin rahoton, musamman daga Saudi Arabia. Wannan ya haifar da muhawara mai tsawo game da rubutun har ma da mai laushi da abin da ya kamata ya zama rubutun da ba a musanta ba ... Sakin da ya fi rikitarwa a cikin IPCC (2001) SPM shine na ƙarshe game da halayen. Bayan muhawara mai yawa, an tsara waɗannan a hankali: "Dangane da sabbin shaidu, da kuma la'akari da sauran rashin tabbas, yawancin abubuwan da aka lura da zafin jiki a cikin shekaru 50 da suka gabata mai yiwuwa ya kasance saboda karuwar yawan iskar gas. "