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Rashin dumamar yanayi

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Rashin dumamar yanayi
yanayi
Bayanai
Bangare na canjin yanayi
Lokacin farawa 1998
Lokacin gamawa 2012
Has cause (en) Fassara Tsinkaye na shekaru goma na Pacific da cherry picking (en) Fassara
Tare da za a iya kirkirar "dakatar da" da gangan, a nan 1998-2012, koda kuwa akwai yanayin dumama.
Bayanan zafin jiki daga kungiyoyin kimiyya daban-daban a duk duniya suna nuna babban alaƙa game da ci gaba da girman dumamar duniya.
Amardeo Sarma yana ba da lacca game da musanta canjin yanayi a Taron Skeptics na Turai, wanda kungiyar Skeptical Enquiry ta shiryaƘungiyar don Binciken Skeptical

Rashin dumama na duniya, [1] kuma wani lokacin ana kiransa dakatarwa na dumama na kasa [2] ko raguwar dumama na Duniya, [3] lokaci ne na ɗan canji kaɗan a cikin matsakaicin yanayi zafi na duniya. [4] A cikin halin yanzu na dumama duniya irin waɗannan lokutan shekaru 15 sun bayyana a cikin rikodin zafin jiki na sama, tare da tabbacin tabbacin yanayin dumama na dogon lokaci. Irin wannan "hiatus" ya fi guntu fiye da lokutan shekaru 30 da yanayin ya kasance matsakaici.[5]

Tallace-tallace sun kewaye da'awar raguwar dumamar yanayi a lokacin 1998-2013.[6] Shekarar El Niño mai zafi ta 1998 ta kasance mai ban sha'awa daga ci gaba da yanayin zafin jiki, don haka yanayin zafi na shekara-shekara ya ba da bayyanar hutu: a watan Janairun 2006, ya bayyana ga wasu cewa dumamar duniya ta tsaya ko ta tsaya.[2] Wani binciken da aka yi a shekara ta 2009 ya nuna cewa shekarun da suka gabata ba tare da dumama ba na musamman ba ne, kuma a cikin 2011 wani binciken ya nuna cewa idan an ba da izini don sanannun bambancin, yanayin hauhawar zafin jiki ya ci gaba ba tare da raguwa ba.[7] An kara sha'awar jama'a a cikin 2013 a cikin gudu zuwa bugawa na Rahoton Bincike na Biyar na IPCC, kuma duk da damuwa cewa tsawon shekaru 15 ya yi gajeren lokaci don ƙayyade yanayin da ke da ma'ana, IPCC ta haɗa da wani sashi a kan hutu, wanda ya bayyana a matsayin karamin karuwa a cikin shekaru 15 daga 1998 zuwa 2012, fiye da shekaru 60 daga 1951 zuwa 2012.[8] Bincike daban-daban sun bincika yiwuwar abubuwan da ke haifar da raguwar gajeren lokaci. Kodayake tsarin yanayi gabaɗaya ya ci gaba da tara makamashi saboda kyakkyawan kasafin kuɗin makamashi na Duniya, karatun zafin jiki da ke akwai a farfajiyar Duniya yana nuna saurin karuwa a cikin dumama fiye da shekaru goma da suka gabata.[4] Tun da ma'auni a saman sararin samaniya ya nuna cewa Duniya tana karɓar makamashi fiye da yadda take haskakawa zuwa sararin samaniya, ƙarfin da aka riƙe ya kamata ya samar da dumama a cikin tsarin yanayi na Duniya.[4]

Binciken da aka ruwaito a watan Yulin 2015 a kan sabuntawar bayanan NOAA [8] ya sanya shakku game da wanzuwar hutu, kuma bai sami wata alama ta raguwa ba har ma a cikin shekarun da suka gabata. [9] [10][11] Masana kimiyya da ke aiki a kan wasu bayanan sun yi maraba da wannan binciken, kodayake sun bayyana ra'ayin cewa yanayin zafi na baya-bayan nan bai kai na tsawon ba. Daga baya, cikakken binciken ya goyi bayan ƙaddamar da cewa dumama yana ci gaba, amma kuma ya gano cewa akwai karancin dumama tsakanin 2001 da 2010 fiye da yadda aka annabta, kuma cewa wannan raguwa na iya kasancewa ga bambance-bambance na gajeren lokaci a cikin Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), wanda ba shi da kyau a wannan lokacin. [12][13][14] Wani bita ya sami "babu wata hujja mai mahimmanci" game da dakatarwa a cikin dumamar duniya. Nazarin kididdiga na bayanan zafin jiki na duniya tun daga 1970 ya kammala cewa kalmar "hiatus" ko "pause" ba ta da inganci.[15] Wasu masana kimiyya na yanayi, duk da haka, sun yi tambaya game da da'awar cewa ba a goyi bayan hutun da shaidar ba, suna jayayya cewa gyare-gyaren da aka yi kwanan nan a cikin bayanai ba su musanta wanzuwar hutun ba.[16]

Ba tare da la'akari da waɗannan tattaunawar game da bayanai da ma'auni na shekarun da suka gabata ba, 2015 ya zama mai dumi fiye da kowane ɗayan shekarun da suka biyo baya, kafin yanayin El Niño ya fara. Zafin 2015 ya ƙare duk wani amincin kimiyya na da'awar cewa abin da ake tsammani "hiatus" tun daga 1998 yana da ma'ana ga yanayin dumama na dogon lokaci, [17] kuma 2016 ya kasance dan kadan mai dumi. A watan Janairun 2017, wani binciken da aka buga a cikin mujallar Science Advances ya kara yin shakku game da wanzuwar dakatarwa ta baya-bayan nan, tare da ƙarin shaidar cewa an rage Yanayin zafi na teku.[18][19] Wani binciken Afrilu na 2017 ya gano bayanan da suka dace da yanayin dumama a duniya tun daga shekarun 1970s, tare da sauye-sauye a cikin kewayon da ake tsammani na bambancin gajeren lokaci.[20] Wani binciken hadin gwiwa na Nuwamba 2017 da masana kimiyya a Jami'ar Fairbanks da Jami'ar Beijing suka gano cewa lokacin da bayanan da suka ɓace daga Arctic mai saurin dumama an haɗa su kuma an haɗa su a cikin matsakaicin zafin jiki na duniya, abin da ake kira hiatus ya ɓace gaba ɗaya.[21]

Tabbacin

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Canjin zafin jiki na sama: lokutan hutu

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yanayi shine kididdigar (yawanci, matsakaici ko bambancin) na yanayi: lokacin gargajiya don matsakaicin canjin yanayi shine shekaru 30 daidai da ma'anar da Hukumar Kula da Yanayi ta Duniya ta kafa.[22] Rubuce-rubucen zafin jiki na kayan aiki sun nuna tsayayyen yanayin zafi na duniya tun daga ƙarshen karni na 19, juyar da sanyaya lokaci mai tsawo a cikin ƙarni da suka gabata kamar yadda aka gani a cikin bayanan paleoclimate. Akwai bambance-bambance masu yawa a cikin gajeren lokaci zuwa shekaru goma, tare da lokutan hutu da ke nuna ƙananan abubuwan gajeren lokaci. Rashin 1998-2012 ya nuna hauhawar 0.05 [-0.05 zuwa +0.15] °C a kowace shekara goma, idan aka kwatanta da hauhawar tsawon lokaci na 0.12 [0.08 zuwa 0.14] °C a kowane shekaru goma a cikin lokacin daga 1951 zuwa 2012. Bayyanar hiatus yana da hankali ga farkon da ƙarshen shekarun da aka zaɓa: tsawon shekaru 15 da ya fara a 1996 yana nuna ƙaruwa na 0.14 [0.03 zuwa 0.24] °C a kowace shekara goma, amma yana ɗaukar shekaru 15 daga 1997 ƙimar ta ragu zuwa 0.07 [-0.02 zuwa 0.18] °C a kowane shekaru goma.

Sauran fannoni na tsarin yanayi

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Duk da yake lokutan hutu sun bayyana a cikin rikodin zafin jiki na sama, wasu abubuwan da ke cikin tsarin yanayi da ke da alaƙa da dumama sun ci gaba. Hawan matakin teku bai tsaya ba a cikin 'yan shekarun nan, [23] kuma raguwar kankara ta Arctic ta ci gaba. An sake yin rikodin rikodin da aka saita don matsanancin yanayin zafi. [24] [25]

Ci gaban fahimtar bayan 1998

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Ɗaya daga cikin hanyoyin yaudara shine karɓar bayanai daga gajeren lokaci don tabbatar da cewa matsakaicin yanayin zafi na duniya ba ya tashi. Blue trendlines nuna gajeren lokaci countertrends wanda ke rufe tsawo-lokaci yanayin warming wanda aka nuna ta hanyar jan trendlines. Irin waɗannan wakilci an yi amfani da su ga abin da ake kira hiatus na dumama duniya (blue rectangle tare da blue dots, a saman dama).

Shekarar El Niño mai dumi ta 1998 ta kasance mai ban mamaki: Rahoton Bincike na Uku na IPCC na 2001 ya nuna cewa "babban zafin jiki na duniya da ke da alaƙa da taron El Niño na 1997 zuwa 1998 ya fito ne a matsayin babban abin da ya faru, har ma da la'akari da yawan warming na baya-bayan nan. " [26] Masu adawa da mataki kan warming na duniya sun yi amfani da wannan ƙididdigar cewa warming ya tsaya; wani ra'ayi na Afrilu 2006 da Bob Carter a cikin Daily Telegraph ya sanar da dakatar da shekaru 8, amma nan an karyata shi[2] Rahoton Bincike na huɗu na IPCC a cikin 2007 ya ba da rahoton cewa "2005 da 1998 sun kasance shekaru biyu mafi zafi a cikin kayan aikin duniya tun 1850. Yanayin zafi na duniya a cikin 1998 an inganta shi ta hanyar babban 1997-1998 El Niño amma babu irin wannan mummunan abu da ya kasance a cikin 2005. Goma sha ɗaya daga cikin shekaru 12 da suka gabata (1995 zuwa 2006) - ban da 1996 - daga cikin shekaru masu zafi a cikin rikodin tun 1850. Rahoton IPCC ya kasance mai buɗewa a cikin ƙarni na yanzu ya biyo bayan gwagwarwarwarwar duniya ta gaba da ya kasance.[27][28]

Akwai ƙarin da'awar a cikin shafukan yanar gizo da kafofin watsa labarai game da rashin dumama tun 1998, kuma wani labarin Kasuwancin Kasuwanci na Kasuwanci a cikin 2008 har ma ya yi iƙirarin cewa duniyar tana sanyaya. A watan Afrilu na shekara ta 2009, wani binciken NOAA ya nuna cewa irin wannan gajeren lokaci ba tare da wani yanayi ko ma sanyaya ba ya faru a baya a cikin shekaru tun daga 1901, kuma ana iya samun sa a lokacin yanayin zafi tun daga shekara ta 1975: yana da sauƙi a "karɓi cherry" lokacin 1998-2008 don tallafawa ra'ayi ɗaya, amma 1999-2008 ya nuna yanayin zafi mai ƙarfi. Sun yi amfani da simulations na kwamfuta na yanayi na gaba don nuna cewa "yana yiwuwa, kuma tabbas mai yiwuwa, don samun lokaci muddin shekaru goma ko biyu na 'sanya' ko babu dumama da aka sanya a kan yanayin dumama na dogon lokaci. " [7] A watan Yulin 2009 Jeb Bush ya ce dumamar duniya bazai faru ba saboda yanayin zafi ya kasance mai sanyi sama da shekaru shida.[29][30] Shekaru goma zuwa ƙarshen 2010 sun sake zama mafi dumi a rubuce, amma David Rose a cikin Mail on Sunday ya yi jayayya cewa, ban da 1998 "blip", yanayin zafi na duniya ya kasance mai laushi na shekaru 15.[31] Wani binciken Nuwamba na 2011 da masanin lissafi Grant Foster da Stefan Rahmstorf suka yi ya nuna cewa bayan sun ba da izinin bambancin gajeren lokaci, an sami zafi ba tare da raguwa ba tun 1998 ba tare da ragewa daga yawan a cikin shekaru goma da suka gabata. [32][33] A watan Janairun 2012 Rose ta yi iƙirarin cewa yanayin zafi na duniya na baya-bayan nan ya nuna shekaru 15 ba tare da dumi ba: Ofishin Met ya bayyana wannan a matsayin "cikakken yaudara". [34]

A watan Janairun 2013 James Hansen da abokan aikinsa sun buga binciken sabuntawa cewa yanayin zafi ya ci gaba a matakin da ya fi girma duk da yanayin La Niña mai ƙarfi, kuma sun ce "shekaru 5 na yanayin zafi na duniya ya kasance mai laushi na shekaru goma, wanda muke fassara shi azaman haɗuwa da bambancin yanayi na ci gaba da raguwa a cikin Yanayin yanayi na duniya", yana mai la'akari da cewa shekarun da zafin jiki na duniya ya faru tun lokacin da suka gabata ya kasance a matakin da zafin duniya a cikin shekarun nan. Akwai karuwar sha'awar kafofin watsa labarai da ke saita labarin yaudara, kamar yadda a cikin taken Reuters "Masana kimiyya na yanayi suna gwagwarmaya don bayyana raguwar zafi". [2] A Cibiyar Sadarwar Kimiyya a London a watan Yulin 2013, 'yan jarida sun sadu da masana kimiyya na Met Office kuma an ba su takarda mai ba da bayani tare da takardu uku game da "dakatarwar kwanan nan a cikin dumamar duniya" a yanayin zafi. Wadannan wasu alamun sun ci gaba da nuna dumama, aƙalla wani ɓangare na dakatarwa da ke da alaƙa da musayar zafi a cikin teku mai zurfi, kuma bai canza haɗarin dumama na gaba ba ko kuma ya lalata kimiyyar lissafi a bayan samfuran: yana nufin raguwar 10% kawai a cikin yiwuwar tsinkaya, don haka " dumama da muke tsammani zuwa 2050 za a jinkirta shi da 'yan shekaru kawai. " [35]

A shirye-shiryen Rahoton Bincike na Biyar na IPCC (AR5), wakilan gwamnatin Amurka da Tarayyar Turai sun so cikakkun bayanai game da raguwa ko "hiatus", Jamus da Hungary sun damu da cewa tsawon shekaru 15 ya yi gajeren lokaci don tantance yanayin da ke da ma'ana, amma IPCC ya haɗa da tattaunawar batun. Ɗaya daga cikin manyan marubutan, Dennis L. Hartmann, daga baya ya ce; "Suna shiga cikin IPCC a wannan lokacin, da na ce, yanayin da ke cikin rikodin shekaru 15 ba shi da ma'ana sosai, saboda bambancin yanayi na shekara-shekara na tsarin yanayi. Amma yayin da IPCC ya samo asali, ya zama batun jama'a, don haka mun ji cewa dole ne mu faɗi wani abu game da shi, duk da cewa daga hangen nesa na binciken kimiyya ba shi ba ne wanda ya nuna cewa binciken kimiyya mai zurfi a cikin yanayin zafi na dogon lokaci ba".[2]

Wata daya kafin a buga AR5 a hukumance, wani rubutun da aka ɓoye na rahoton ya lura cewa "Models gabaɗaya ba sa haifar da raguwar da aka lura a yanayin dumama a cikin shekaru 10-15 da suka gabata", amma ba su da cikakkun bayani, kuma sun ja hankalin kafofin watsa labarai masu yawa.[2] A ranar 16 ga watan Agusta Reuters ta ce "kwamitin zai yi kokarin bayyana dalilin da ya sa yanayin zafi na duniya, yayin da yake karuwa, ya tashi a hankali tun daga kimanin 1998 duk da cewa yawan iskar gas ya kai ga rikodin rikodin rikodi a wannan lokacin". BBC a ranar 19 ga watan Agusta ta ba da rahoton gargadi na IPCC cewa rubutun karshe zai bambanta, kuma ya ce "Kwamitin zai kuma bayyana dalilin da ya sa yanayin duniya ke tashi a hankali tun daga shekarar 1998, raguwar rikice-rikice wanda masana kimiyya ke fama da bayyanawa. "Ya ce yiwuwar cewa yanayin yanayi ya fi ƙarancin yanayi ya fi ƙasa da ƙididdigar da na baya-bayan nan ya yi jayayya da "masu shakka da yawa" Bayanancin duniya na waɗannan da suka yi watsi da su a matsayin masu yaƙi.[36]

A cikin tattaunawar dare game da kalmomi, IPCC ta kara da bayani ciki har da "saboda bambancin yanayi, abubuwan da suka danganci gajerun rikodin suna da matukar damuwa ga kwanakin farawa da ƙarshe kuma ba sa nuna yanayin yanayi na dogon lokaci", amma a taron manema labarai da ya saki IPCC Summary for Policymakers a ranar 27 ga Satumba, 'yan jarida sun mai da hankali kan tambayoyin "dakatarwa" maimakon ƙaddamarwa gaba ɗaya. Wannan mayar da hankali ya haifar da manyan labarai kamar "Global Warming Slowdown Seen as Emissions Rise to Record" daga Reuters. Jaridar National Post ta yi amfani da subheading "Rahoton IPCC masu shakka sun kama shiru a cikin dumamar yanayi". [2] [37] Ko da Nature ya gabatar da rahoton labarai na su "IPCC: Duk da hutu, canjin yanayi a nan ya zauna", kodayake ya ce "yanzu' tun lokacin da aka yi rikodin shekara mai zafi na 1998 - mai yiwuwa saboda karuwar zafi ta teku - ba alamar cewa dumamar yanayi ta duniya ta tsaya ba, kamar yadda wasu za su so su yi fatan", kuma ya nakalto masanin yanayin yanayi Thomas Stocker yana cewa "Kimanin abubuwan da ba su dace ba idan har yanzu ba su dace da tsarin yanayi na gaba ba ne kawai ya kamata ba".[38]

A cikin wata sanarwa ga manema labarai a watan Maris na shekara ta 2016, Farfesa David Vaughan na binciken Antarctic na Burtaniya ya ce karuwar zafin jiki na duniya na baya-bayan nan ba saboda El Niño mai tsanani ba ne, amma akasin haka gaskiya ne. "Wannan wani abu ne na kwanan nan wanda ya faru a cikin hauhawar yanayin zafi na duniya. Muna komawa ga al'ada: hauhawar yanayi. Wannan cikakkiyar gargadi ce game da haɗarin da ke gaba. "

Abubuwan da suka shafi

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Yanayin zafin jiki da daidaitawa

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Rubuce-rubucen zafin jiki na kayan aiki ba ya rufe dukan duniya: akwai yankunan da ba su cika ba ko bayanan da suka ɓace, musamman a yankuna masu zafi da sassa na Afirka. Babban bayanan zafin jiki suna ɗaukar hanyoyi daban-daban don ba da izini ga wannan: HadCRUT ba ya ƙididdigewa, kuma yana zaton cewa ma'anar duniya ta shafi. Lokacin da waɗannan yankuna suna da bambanci ga matsakaicin duniya kamar yadda yake a halin yanzu, wannan yana haifar da nuna bambanci a sakamakon wanda ke rage yawan dumama. Sauran bayanan sun haɗu, suna samar da abubuwa daban-daban. Wani binciken da aka yi a shekarar 2014 ya gabatar da wata Hadaya mai mahimmanci ta Kriging daga Bayanan tauraron dan adam na UAH, kuma ya gano cewa wannan ya rage raguwar sosai.[39]

Fayil:Karl 15 Temps before and after corrxnx.png
Tsarin lokaci na yanayin zafi na duniya (ƙasa da teku) tare da sabon bincike (baƙar fata) idan aka kwatanta da wani gyare-gyare don nuna bambanci na lokaci (blue). Sabon binciken ya nuna yanayin dogon lokaci tun daga 1880 wanda bai kai abin da za a kiyasta ba tare da gyara ba. Kuma, musamman, yanayin tun 1998 ba ya bambanta da wanda aka samu don sabon bincike tun 1880.[8][9]

Homogenization ya zama dole ga duk bayanan yanayi don gyara canje-canjen da ba na yanayi ba, kamar gabatar da kayan auna daban-daban, canje-canje a wurin kayan, ko bambance-bambance a lokacin da ake auna.[9] Ana sabunta bayanan zafin jiki na NOAA a kai a kai tare da gyare-gyare da ke inganta izini don sanannun son zuciya, gami da tasirin canje-canjen da suka gabata a hanyoyin tattara yanayin zafi. A cikin 2015 ya canza daga Cibiyar Nazarin Yanayi ta Duniya zuwa sabon bankin bayanai na Ƙungiyar Yanayin Yanayi ta Kasa da Kasa wanda ya Haɗuwa da wasu tashoshin da ke ba da ƙarin ɗaukar hoto game da yanayin yanayin ƙasa, da kuma sabon tsarin bayanan Yanayin Yanayin Yanki na Tekun (version 4) wanda ya inganta izini don nuna bambanci, gami da canji na mataki daga auna ruwan jirgin ruwa zuwa amfani da buoys na atomatik: sigar da ta gabata ta sauƙaitaccen izini don wannan. Wani labarin da aka buga a cikin mujallar Kimiyya ta Amurka (AAAS) a watan Yunin 2015 ta ƙungiyar da Thomas R. Karl, darektan cibiyar bayanai ta NOAA, ya ba da rahoton cewa waɗannan gyare-gyare sun yi ɗan bambanci ga rikodin zafin jiki, amma ƙaramin canji a cikin 'yan shekarun nan ya isa ya nuna cewa babu hutu a cikin lokacin daga 1998 zuwa 2014. Sun yi amfani da ma'anar IPCC na abin da ake tsammani a matsayin raguwa a cikin yawan karuwar zafin jiki daga 1998 zuwa 2012, idan aka kwatanta da adadin daga 1951 zuwa 2012, kuma ba su sami goyon baya ga ra'ayin "hiatus" ko raguwa ba.[8][40]

Bambancin halitta

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Canjin yanayi na halitta na iya bayyana don rage yawan zafin jiki a cikin gajeren lokaci, amma ba ya karyata yanayin canjin yanayi na dogon lokaci.[41][42] Lokaci na gajeren lokaci na dumamar duniya sun dace da tsarin canjin yanayi na dogon lokaci.[43] Arewacin Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) yana haifar da bambancin yanayi da yawa a cikin matsakaicin yanayin zafi na Arewacin Hemispheric ta hanyar jinkirin tasiri a Arewacin Tekun Atlantika, kuma yana iya zama mai amfani mai tsinkaya na lokutan zafi da sanyaya a cikin AMO da Arewacin Hemipheric matsakaicin zafin jiki.[44] Wani binciken da aka buga a watan Janairun 2015 ya ba da shawarar cewa hutun ya haifar da tsarin oscillatory na shekaru 60 na bambancin yanayi da ke da alaƙa da AMO da PDO, yana hulɗa tare da yanayin dumama na duniya saboda galibi ɗan adam ya haifar da karuwa a matakan iskar gas.[45]

Tasirin tekuna

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Ɗaya daga cikin shawarwari shine cewa raguwa wani ɓangare ne na canjin yanayi na halitta, musamman yana da alaƙa da sanyaya na shekaru goma a gabashin Pacific a cikin La Niña na El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). [41] An bayyana wannan ne saboda karuwar iskar cinikayya ta Pacific a cikin shekaru 20 da suka gabata, don haka an rage yawan zafin jiki ta hanyar karuwar zafi na teku wanda ya haifar da karuwar subduction a cikin Pacific shallow overturning cells, da karuwar hawan equatorial a tsakiyar da gabashin Pacific.[12][42] Wani binciken Maris na 2014 ya gano cewa samfuran yanayi da ke ɗaukar bambancin yanayi wanda ya dace da abubuwan lura na ENSO ya samar da ƙididdigar gaskiya na yanayin shekaru 15.[46]

Wani binciken da aka buga a ranar 3 ga watan Agusta, 2014 ya ba da rahoton cewa saurin dumama Tekun Atlantika ya kara iskar kasuwanci, don haka sanyaya yanayin zafi a Tekun Pacific. Wannan, binciken ya kammala, ya ba da gudummawa ga hutu saboda irin waɗannan iskõki suna kama zafi a cikin zurfin teku.[47] Wani binciken da aka buga daga baya a wannan watan ya sami shaidar cewa sake zagayowar ruwan teku a cikin Tekun Atlantika yana rinjayar yanayin zafi na duniya ta hanyar nutsewar zafi mai yawa a ƙarƙashin teku, kuma ya ba da shawarar cewa hutu na iya ci gaba har tsawon shekaru goma saboda kowane bangare na wannan sake zagayolar yana ɗaukar shekaru talatin.[3][48] Shekaru 60 zuwa 80 na canjin yanayi da na teku a Arewacin Atlantic an kuma danganta shi da raguwa ta hanyar binciken biyu da aka buga a 2013 kuma an yi amfani da shi don ƙaddamar da tsawon raguwa.[44][49] An ci gaba da gabatar da sabon "ka'idar oscillator mai jinkiri" na haɗin iska da teku na Arewacin Atlantic a cikin 2015 don fahimtar hanyoyin jiki na sauye-sauyen yanayi na shekaru 60 zuwa 80.[50]

Masana kimiyya na NASA Sea Level Change Team sun buga takardu biyu a watan Oktoba 2014 a cikin wannan fitowar Nature Climate Change . A cewar wani sanarwar manema labarai na NASA a ranar 6 ga Oktoba, 2014 da ke da alaƙa da takardun, "Daya daga cikin shahararrun ra'ayoyin shine cewa rabin rabin teku yana karɓar raguwa, amma tabbatar da shaidar tana da ƙanƙanta. "A cikin wannan sanarwar manoma, mai taken, "NASA Finds Earth's Ocean Abyss Ba Warmed ba, NASA ta tattauna binciken da ta gudanar da shi ne "na farko don gwada ra'ayin ta amfani da abubuwan da suka faru ta tauraron dan adam, da zafin jiki na teku na sama". NASA ya bayyana a cikin wannan yanayin da sauri ya saurin ya tashi zuwa ga waɗannan shekarun nan, NASA ya bayyana.[51][52]

Fiye da haka, daya daga cikin wadannan binciken NASA ya dogara ne akan gaskiyar cewa ruwa yana fadada yayin da yake da dumi, da kuma lissafin cirewa mai sauƙi: Daga jimlar hauhawar matakin teku, sun cire hakan saboda lissafin fadada teku har zuwa mita 2,000 ' (1.2 mi) zurfin bisa ga bayanai daga Argo buoys, kuma saboda ƙara ruwa mai narkewa a duk duniya. Sauran, wanda ke wakiltar yawan hauhawar matakin teku wanda ya haifar da dumama a cikin zurfin teku a ƙasa da wannan zurfin, "yawanci sifili ne. " Wasu binciken da aka yi kwanan nan da ke ba da rahoton dumama mai zurfin teku suna nufin rabin rabin saman teku, amma a ƙasa da mafi girman layin da ya sauka zuwa kusan mita 700' (0.43 mi) zurfin.[53] Dangane da sauran binciken NASA, saman Layer na Kudancin Tekun sun yi zafi sosai tsakanin 1970 da 2005 fiye da yadda aka yi tunani a baya (24-58 bisa dari fiye da ƙididdigar da ta gabata), saboda kafin tura Argo buoys, ma'aunin zafin jiki a Kudancin Ocean sun kasance "mai tabo, a mafi kyau. "[53]  

Cewa teku ta yi zafi a baya da sauri fiye da yadda muka yi tsammani zai nuna cewa tasirin canjin yanayi na iya zama mafi muni fiye da yadda ake tsammani a yanzu, yana sanya hankalin duniya ga CO2 zuwa ƙarshen iyakar iyakar yiwuwar.[54]

Wani binciken da aka buga a watan Disamba na shekara ta 2014 ya gano cewa mai yiwuwa ne cewa wani muhimmin dalilin da ya haifar da raguwar ya karu da zafi a fadin Tekun Atlantika, Tekun Kudancin, da Tekun Pacific na Equatorial.[55]

Wani binciken da aka buga a watan Fabrairun 2015 ya gano cewa Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation da Pacific Decadal Oscillation sun kasance da alhakin raguwa, kuma sun yi hasashen cewa waɗannan sake zagayowar nan ba da daɗewa ba za su fara yin akasin haka a yanayin zafi na duniya.[56][57]

Wani binciken da aka buga a watan Nuwamba na shekara ta 2015 ya sami shaidar "bambanci tsakanin radiation na sama da matsakaicin yanayin zafi na duniya kamar yadda zafin teku ke raguwa yayin lokacin da aka dakatar da yanayin zafi. " Wannan binciken ya ba da rahoton cewa wannan binciken ya dace da abubuwan lura. [58]

Ayyukan dutsen wuta

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Bincike da yawa sun ba da shawarar cewa yiwuwar saurin dumama a wannan lokacin ya haifar da wani bangare ta hanyar karuwar hayaki daga aikin dutsen wuta.[59] Wani binciken da aka buga a watan Nuwamba na shekara ta 2014 ya gano cewa an fitar da karin sulfur dioxide daga kananan tsaunuka masu fitattun wuta fiye da yadda aka yi tunani a baya a cikin 2000-2013.[60] Mawallafin binciken, David Ridley, ya ce wannan na iya taimakawa wajen bayyana dalilin da ya sa tsarin yanayi bai hango hasashen saurin dumama ba.

Sauran dalilai

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Ƙarin abubuwan da aka gabatar game da raguwar yanayin zafi a cikin kimanin 1999-2014 sun haɗa da fitar da tururi mai ƙanshi daga gandun daji na Pine, wanda aka nuna ya juya zuwa aerosols, [61] [62] da kuma haramtacciyar chlorofluorocarbons sakamakon Yarjejeniyar Montreal, tunda sun kasance iskar gas mai ƙarfi ban da kadarorinsu masu lalata ozone. [63] Bambance-bambance na ƙarya a cikin ƙimar dumama da aka lura na iya fitowa daga lissafin nazarin yanayin kanta, musamman ma lokacin da lokacin binciken ya kasance takaice kuma an keta tunanin koma baya.[64]

Tsawon hutu dangane da tsarin yanayi

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Bincike biyu masu zaman kansu da aka buga a watan Agustan 2014 sun kammala cewa, da zarar yanayin zafi ya fara tashi, mai yiwuwa ne cewa "za su ci gaba da tashi ba tare da hutu ba har tsawon ƙarni, sai dai idan muka yanke hayakin gas mai ɗumi". Watanabe et al sun ce, "wannan yanayin zafi ya samo asali ne daga sanyaya na gabashin Pacific da ke da alaƙa da karfafa iskar kasuwanci, kuma yayin da canjin yanayi na duniya ke da tasiri sosai, tasirinsa yana raguwa sannu a hankali idan aka kwatanta da dumamar yanayi na duniya da ke gudana. [65] Maher et al sun gano cewa a karkashin halin da ake ciki da kuma hasashen yawan iskar gas mai guba akwai karancin damar wani shekaru goma da ke faruwa bayan 2030, koda kuwa akwai babban fashewar dutse bayan wannan lokacin. Sun ci gaba da cewa mafi yawan wuraren da ba na dutsen wuta ba suna da alaƙa da ingantaccen sanyaya a farfajiyar a cikin Pacific, wanda ke da alaƙa le Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation.[66]

Rahotanni daga kungiyoyin kimiyya

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Rahoton Kwalejin Kimiyya ta Kasa-Royal Society

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Wani rahoto na hadin gwiwa daga Royal Society na Burtaniya da Kwalejin Kimiyya ta Amurka a watan Fabrairun 2014 sun ce babu "dakatar" a cikin canjin yanayi kuma cewa raguwar wucin gadi da gajeren lokaci a cikin yawan karuwar matsakaicin yanayin duniya a yankunan da ba na polar ba zai iya sake fara hanzarta a nan gaba. "Matsayin zafin jiki na duniya ya ragu. Ba zan ce an dakatar da shi ba. Ya dogara da bayanan da kake kallo. Idan ka kalli bayanan da suka hada da Arctic, a bayyane yake cewa yanayin zafi na duniya yana ƙaruwa, "in ji Tim Palmer, marubucin rahoton kuma farfesa a Jami'ar Oxford.[67]

Rahoton yanayi na Ƙungiyar Yanayi ta Duniya

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Lokacin da ya sanar da rahoton yanayi na shekara-shekara na World Meteorological Organisation a watan Maris na shekara ta 2014, Sakatare Janar na WMO Michel Jarraud ya ce babu wani hutu, tare da 2013 ci gaba da yanayin dumama na dogon lokaci wanda ke nuna "babu tsayawa a dumama na duniya". 2013 ta kasance shekara ta shida mafi zafi a rikodin, kuma 13 daga cikin shekaru 14 mafi zafi a cikin rikodin sun faru tun farkon shekara ta 2000.[68] Ya ce "Gwargwadon tekunmu ya hanzarta, kuma a zurfin zurfi. Fiye da kashi 90 cikin dari na yawan makamashi da iskar gas ta kama an adana shi a cikin tekun. "

Rahoton shekara-shekara na 2013 ya bayyana cewa "Yayin da yawan yanayin iska ke tashi ya ragu a cikin 'yan shekarun nan, zafi ya ci gaba da kamawa a cikin Tsarin Duniya, galibi yayin da aka kara yawan yanayin zafi na teku. Kimanin kashi 93 cikin dari na yawan zafi da aka kama a cikin tsarin duniya tsakanin 1971 da 2010 teku ya ɗauki teku. " Daga 2000 zuwa 2013 teku sun sami kusan sau uku kamar yadda zafin ya kasance a cikin shekaru 20 da suka gabata, kuma yayin da yawancin zafi ya makale tsakanin 2000 da mita 700 da zurfin, daga 2000 da mita 600 sun kasance tsakanin 2000 da 700 sun kasance mafi yawan zafi, daga 2000 (2,000 zuwa 2013 sun kasance sun kasance tsakanin zurfin jiki). Ya ba da shawarar cewa wannan na iya zama saboda canje-canje a cikin yanayi da kewayon teku a kusa da Tekun Pacific na wurare masu zafi, yana hulɗa da El Niño-Southern Oscillation da Pacific Decadal Oscillation.[69]  

Manazarta

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  63. ↑ Estrada, F.; Perron, P.; Martínez-López, B. N. (2013). "Statistically derived contributions of diverse human influences to twentieth-century temperature changes". Nature Geoscience. 6 (12): 1050–1055. Bibcode:2013NatGe...6.1050E. doi:10.1038/ngeo1999. S2CID 130224979. |hdl-access= requires |hdl= (help)
  64. ↑ Trenberth, K. E. (2015). "Science Magazine: Sign In". Science. 349 (6249): 691–692. doi:10.1126/science.aac9225. PMID 26273042.
  65. ↑ Watanabe, Masahiro; Shiogama, Hideo; Tatebe, Hiroaki; Hayashi, Michiya; Ishii, Masayoshi; Kimoto, Masahide (31 August 2014). "Contribution of natural decadal variability to global warming acceleration and hiatus". Nature Climate Change. 4 (10): 893–897. Bibcode:2014NatCC...4..893W. doi:10.1038/nclimate2355.
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  67. ↑ Empty citation (help)
  68. ↑ Vaughan, Adam (24 March 2014). "13 of 14 warmest years on record occurred in 21st century – UN : Environment". The Guardian. Retrieved 28 March 2014.
  69. ↑ "E-Library: WMO Statement on the status of the global climate in 2013". World Meteorological Organisation. 24 March 2014. Archived from the original on 4 June 2014. Retrieved 28 March 2014.
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