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Tsarin kimantawa na hadin gwiwa

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Integrated assessment modeling (IAM) ko Integrated Modeling (IM) [lower-alpha 1] kalma ce da aka yi amfani da ita don wani nau'in ƙirar kimiyya wanda ke ƙoƙarin haɗa manyan fasalulluka na al'umma da tattalin arziki tare da biosphere da yanayi a cikin tsarin ƙira ɗaya. Manufar ƙididdigar ƙididdiga ita ce ta karɓi ƙididdigatattun manufofi, yawanci a cikin mahallin canjin yanayi kodayake kuma a wasu fannoni na ci gaban ɗan adam da zamantakewa. Duk da yake daki-daki da girman hadin gwiwar horo ya bambanta sosai ga kowane samfurin, duk tsarin kimantawa na yanayi ya haɗa da matakai na tattalin arziki da kuma matakai da ke samar da iskar gas.[2] Sauran samfuran kimantawa sun haɗa da wasu fannoni na ci gaban ɗan adam kamar ilimi, kiwon lafiya, ababen more rayuwa, da kuma shugabanci. 

Wadannan samfurori an haɗa su ne saboda sun mamaye fannoni masu yawa na ilimi, gami da tattalin arziki da kimiyyar yanayi da kuma ƙarin samfuran da suka fi dacewa da Tsarin makamashi, canjin amfani da ƙasa, noma, ababen more rayuwa, rikici, shugabanci, fasaha, ilimi, da kiwon lafiya. Kalmar kimantawa ta fito ne daga amfani da waɗannan samfuran don samar da bayanai don amsa tambayoyin manufofi.[3] Don ƙididdige waɗannan nazarin kimantawa, ana amfani da samfuran lambobi. Tsarin kimantawa na hadin gwiwa ba ya samar da tsinkaya don nan gaba amma yana kimanta abin da yanayin zai yiwu[4]

Akwai nau'ikan nau'ikan ƙididdigar ƙididdiga daban-daban. Ɗaya daga cikin rarrabuwa ya bambanta tsakanin samfuran farko waɗanda ke ƙididdige hanyoyin ci gaba na gaba ko abubuwan da suka faru kuma suna ba da cikakken bayani, bayanan bangarori game da matakai masu rikitarwa da aka tsara. A nan ana kiransu samfuran tsari. Abu na biyu, akwai samfuran da ke tara farashin canjin yanayi da Rage canjin yanayi don samun kimantawa na jimlar farashin canjin sauyin yanayi.[2] Rarrabawar ta biyu tana nuna bambanci tsakanin samfuran da ke nuna alamun da aka tabbatar (ta hanyar lissafin tattalin arziki), ko samfuran da suka ƙayyade (duniya) mafita mafi kyau na tattalin arziki daga hangen nesa na mai tsara zamantakewa, yana ɗaukar (ƙananan) daidaito na tattalin arziki.[5][6]

Tsarin tsari

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Rashin iskar gas na shekara-shekara a cikin yanayin yanayi daban-daban na NGFS 2022, bisa ga samfurin REMIND-MAgPIE ta Cibiyar Nazarin Tasirin Yanayi ta Potsdam

Kwamitin Intergovernmental kan Canjin Yanayi (IPCC) ya dogara da tsarin kimantawa na tsarin (PB-IAM ) don ƙididdige yanayin ragewa. An yi amfani da su don bincika hanyoyi daban-daban don zama a cikin manufofin manufofin yanayi kamar 1.5 ° C da aka amince da shi a Yarjejeniyar Paris. Bugu da ƙari, waɗannan samfuran sun goyi bayan bincike ciki har da kimanta manufofin makamashi da kuma kwaikwayon hanyoyin zamantakewar tattalin arziki. [7][8][9] Shahararrun tsarin ƙira sun haɗa da IMAGE, MESSAGEix, AIM / GCE, GCAM, REMIND-MAGPIE, da WITCH-GLOBIOM.[10][11][12][13][14][15] Duk da yake waɗannan abubuwan suna da alaƙa da manufofi, ya kamata a yi fassarar abubuwan da suka faru da hankali.[16] 

Misalai marasa daidaituwa sun haɗa da [17] waɗanda suka dogara da daidaitattun tattalin arziki da tattalin arzikin juyin halitta (kamar E3ME), [18] da samfuran wakili (kamar DSK-model). [6] Wadannan samfuran yawanci ba sa ɗaukar wakilai masu ma'ana da wakilci, ko daidaitawar kasuwa a cikin dogon lokaci.[17]

Ƙara ƙididdigar ƙididdiga

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Misalai na kimantawa masu amfani sune manyan kayan aiki don lissafin farashin zamantakewa na carbon, ko kuma farashin zamantakewa mai iyaka na fitar da tan daya na carbon (a matsayin carbon dioxide) cikin yanayi a kowane lokaci.[19] Misali, DICE, [20] PAGE, [21] da FUND [22] model an yi amfani da su ta hanyar US Interagency Working Group don lissafin farashin zamantakewar carbon kuma an yi amfani dashi don nazarin tasirin tsari.

Ana aiwatar da wannan nau'in samfurin don gano jimlar farashin tasirin yanayi, wanda galibi ana ɗaukarsa mummunan waje ba tare da kasuwannin al'ada ba. Don gyara irin wannan gazawar kasuwa, alal misali ta hanyar amfani da harajin carbon, ana buƙatar farashin hayaki.[19] Koyaya, ƙididdigar farashin zamantakewar carbon ba su da tabbas sosai kuma za su kasance haka don makomar gaba. [23][24] An yi jayayya cewa "bincike na IAM game da Manufofin yanayi ya haifar da fahimtar ilimi da daidaito wanda ba daidai ba ne, kuma zai iya yaudarar masu tsara manufofi suyi tunanin cewa hasashen da samfuran suka samar suna da wani nau'in halattaccen kimiyya".[25] Duk da haka, an yi jayayya cewa ƙoƙarin lissafin farashin zamantakewar carbon yana da amfani don samun fahimta game da tasirin wasu matakai akan tasirin yanayi, da kuma fahimtar ɗayan mahimman hadin gwiwar kasa da kasa a cikin shugabancin yarjejeniyar yanayi.[23]

Ba a yi amfani da samfuran kimantawa na hadin gwiwa kawai don tantance yanayin muhalli ko wuraren da suka shafi canjin yanayi ba. An kuma yi amfani da su don nazarin alamu na rikice-rikice, Manufofin Ci Gaban Ci Gaban, [26] abubuwan da ke faruwa a duk faɗin yankin a Afirka, da kuma tsaro na abinci.

Manazarta

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  1. ↑ This second shortened version is used in the 2014 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report.[1] Note too the American spellings of integrated assessment modeling and integrated modeling.
Cite error: <ref> tags exist for a group named "lower-alpha", but no corresponding <references group="lower-alpha"/> tag was found.
  1. ↑ Clarke, Leon; Jiang, Kejun; et al. (2014). "Chapter 6: Assessing transformation pathways" (PDF). In IPCC (ed.). Climate change 2014: mitigation of climate change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-1-107-65481-5. Retrieved 2016-05-09.
  2. 1 2 Weyant, John (2017). "Some Contributions of Integrated Assessment Models of Global Climate Change". Review of Environmental Economics and Policy. 11 (1): 115–137. doi:10.1093/reep/rew018. ISSN 1750-6816.
  3. ↑ "Inaugural lecture Detlef van Vuuren: Integrated Assessment: Back to the Future - PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency". www.pbl.nl. Archived from the original on 2019-06-02. Retrieved 2019-06-01.
  4. ↑ "Inaugural lecture Detlef van Vuuren: Integrated Assessment: Back to the Future - PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency". www.pbl.nl. Archived from the original on 2019-06-02. Retrieved 2019-06-01.
  5. ↑ Pauliuk, Stefan; Arvesen, Anders; Stadler, Konstantin; Hertwich, Edgar G. (2017). "Industrial ecology in integrated assessment models". Nature Climate Change (in Turanci). 7 (1): 13–20. Bibcode:2017NatCC...7...13P. doi:10.1038/nclimate3148. ISSN 1758-6798. |hdl-access= requires |hdl= (help)
  6. 1 2 Lamperti, F.; Dosi, G.; Napoletano, M.; Roventini, A.; Sapio, A. (2018). "Faraway, So Close: Coupled Climate and Economic Dynamics in an Agent-based Integrated Assessment Model". Ecological Economics (in Turanci). 150: 315–339. Bibcode:2018EcoEc.150..315L. doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.03.023. ISSN 0921-8009. |hdl-access= requires |hdl= (help)
  7. ↑ Böhringer, Christoph; Rutherford, Thomos F. (September 2009). "Integrated assessment of energy policies: Decomposing top-down and bottom-up". Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. 33 (9): 1648–1661. doi:10.1016/j.jedc.2008.12.007. ISSN 0165-1889.
  8. ↑ "Explainer: How 'Shared Socioeconomic Pathways' explore future climate change". Carbon Brief. 2018-04-19. Retrieved 2019-06-02.
  9. ↑ Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar; Edmonds, Jae; O’Neill, Brian C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Bauer, Nico; Calvin, Katherine; Dellink, Rob (2017-01-01). "The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview". Global Environmental Change. 42: 153–168. Bibcode:2017GEC....42..153R. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009. ISSN 0959-3780. |hdl-access= requires |hdl= (help)
  10. ↑ Huppmann, Daniel; Gidden, Matthew; Fricko, Oliver; Kolp, Peter; Orthofer, Clara; Pimmer, Michael; Kushin, Nikolay; Vinca, Adriano; Mastrucci, Alessio (February 2019). "The MESSAGE Integrated Assessment Model and the ix modeling platform (ixmp): An open framework for integrated and cross-cutting analysis of energy, climate, the environment, and sustainable development" (PDF). Environmental Modelling & Software. 112: 143–156. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.11.012. S2CID 57375075.
  11. ↑ Calvin, Katherine; Patel, Pralit; Clarke, Leon; Asrar, Ghassem; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Cui, Ryna Yiyun; Di Vittorio, Alan; Dorheim, Kalyn; Edmonds, Jae (2019-02-15). "GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems". Geoscientific Model Development. 12 (2): 677–698. Bibcode:2019GMD....12..677C. doi:10.5194/gmd-12-677-2019. ISSN 1991-9603.
  12. ↑ Luderer, Gunnar; Leimbach, Marian; Bauer, Nico; Kriegler, Elmar; Baumstark, Lavinia; Bertram, Christoph; Giannousakis, Anastasis; Hilaire, Jerome; Klein, David (2015). "Description of the REMIND Model (Version 1.6)". SSRN Working Paper Series. doi:10.2139/ssrn.2697070. ISSN 1556-5068. S2CID 11719708.
  13. ↑ Baumstark, Lavinia; Bauer, Nico; Benke, Falk; Bertram, Christoph; Bi, Stephen; Gong, Chen Chris; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Dirnaichner, Alois; Giannousakis, Anastasis; Hilaire, Jérôme; Klein, David (2021-10-28). "REMIND2.1: transformation and innovation dynamics of the energy-economic system within climate and sustainability limits". Geoscientific Model Development (in English). 14 (10): 6571–6603. Bibcode:2021GMD....14.6571B. doi:10.5194/gmd-14-6571-2021. ISSN 1991-959X.CS1 maint: unrecognized language (link)
  14. ↑ Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Galeotti, Marzio; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo (2006). "WITCH - A World Induced Technical Change Hybrid Model" (PDF). SSRN Working Paper Series. doi:10.2139/ssrn.948382. ISSN 1556-5068. S2CID 155558316. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2025-02-10. Retrieved 2025-07-31.
  15. ↑ Gambhir, Ajay; Butnar, Isabela; Li, Pei-Hao; Smith, Pete; Strachan, Neil (2019-05-08). "A Review of Criticisms of Integrated Assessment Models and Proposed Approaches to Address These, through the Lens of BECCS" (PDF). Energies. 12 (9): 1747. doi:10.3390/en12091747. ISSN 1996-1073.
  16. ↑ Huppmann, Daniel; Rogelj, Joeri; Kriegler, Elmar; Krey, Volker; Riahi, Keywan (2018-10-15). "A new scenario resource for integrated 1.5 °C research" (PDF). Nature Climate Change. 8 (12): 1027–1030. Bibcode:2018NatCC...8.1027H. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0317-4. ISSN 1758-678X. S2CID 92398486.
  17. 1 2 Hafner, Sarah; Anger-Kraavi, Annela; Monasterolo, Irene; Jones, Aled (2020-11-01). "Emergence of New Economics Energy Transition Models: A Review". Ecological Economics (in Turanci). 177: 106779. Bibcode:2020EcoEc.17706779H. doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106779. ISSN 0921-8009. S2CID 224854628.
  18. ↑ Mercure, Jean-Francois; Pollit, Hector; Neil, Edward; Holden, Philip; Unnada, Unnada (2018). "Environmental impact assessment for climate change policy with the simulation-based integrated assessment model E3ME-FTT-GENIE". Energy Strategy Reviews (in Turanci). 20: 195–208. arXiv:1707.04870. Bibcode:2018EneSR..20..195M. doi:10.1016/j.esr.2018.03.003. ISSN 2211-467X.
  19. 1 2 "Q&A: The social cost of carbon". Carbon Brief. 2017-02-14. Retrieved 2019-06-01.
  20. ↑ Nordhaus, William (1992). "An optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases". Science. 258 (5086): 1315–1319. Bibcode:1992Sci...258.1315N. doi:10.1126/science.258.5086.1315. PMID 17778354. S2CID 23232493.
  21. ↑ Yumashev, Dmitry Hope, Chris Schaefer, Kevin Riemann-Campe, Kathrin Iglesias-Suarez, Fernando Jafarov, Elchin Burke, Eleanor J. Young, Paul J. Elshorbany, Yasin Whiteman, Gail (2019-04-23). "Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements". Nature Communications. 10 (1): 1900. Bibcode:2019NatCo..10.1900Y. doi:10.1038/s41467-019-09863-x. OCLC 1099183857. PMC 6478735. PMID 31015475.CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  22. ↑ "FUND - Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution". www.fund-model.org. Retrieved 2019-06-01.
  23. 1 2 Ricke, Katharine; Drouet, Laurent; Caldeira, Ken; Tavoni, Massimo (2019-03-25). "Author Correction: Country-level social cost of carbon". Nature Climate Change. 9 (7): 567. Bibcode:2019NatCC...9..567R. doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0455-3. ISSN 1758-678X.
  24. ↑ Pezzey, John C. V. (2018-11-12). "Why the social cost of carbon will always be disputed". Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. 10 (1): e558. doi:10.1002/wcc.558. ISSN 1757-7780.
  25. ↑ Pindyck, Robert S. (2017). "The Use and Misuse of Models for Climate Policy". Review of Environmental Economics and Policy. 11 (1): 100–114. doi:10.1093/reep/rew012. |hdl-access= requires |hdl= (help)
  26. ↑ Moyer, Jonathan; Hedden, Steve (2020). "Are we on the right path to achieve the sustainable development goals?". World Development. 127: 104749. doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104749.
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