Jerin manyan sake gina yanayin zafin jiki na shekaru 2,000 da suka gabata

Wannan jerin manyan gyare-gyaren yanayin zafi na shekaru 2,000 da suka gabata; sun haɗada sake gina yanayi wanda ya bada gudummawa sosai ga yarjejeniya ta zamani kan rikodin ɗin yanayin zafi na shekaru 2,000 da suka gabata.

Rikodin zazzabi na kayan aiki kawai ya shafi shekaru 150 da suka gabata a sikelin hemispheric ko na duniya, kuma sake gina lokutan da suka gabata sun dogara ne akan ƙa'idodin yanayi. Acikin wani yunƙuri na farko na nuna cewa yanayi ya canza, takardar Hubert Lamb ta 1965 ta ƙaru daga bayanan zafin jiki na tsakiyar Ingila tareda bayanan tarihi, na botanical, da na archeological don samar da ƙididdige ƙimar yanayin zafi a yankin Arewacin Atlantic. Sake gine-ginen ƙididdiga na gaba sunyi amfani da dabarun ƙididdiga tare da wakilai daban-daban na yanayi don samar da manyan sake ginawa. Wakilan zoben bishiya na iya bada ƙuduri na shekara-shekara na yankuna masu zafi na arewacin kogin kuma ana iya haɗa su cikin ƙididdiga tareda wasu ƙayyadaddun proxies don samar da multiproxy hemispherical ko sake gina duniya.

Sabbin gyare-gyare na ƙididdigewa sun nuna yanayin zafi a baya ƙasa da yanayin zafi da aka kai a ƙarshen karni na 20. Wannan tsari kamar yadda aka gani a cikin Mann, Bradley & Hughes 1999 an sanya shi hoton hockey stick, kuma tun daga 2010 wannan faffadar ƙarshe ta sami goyan bayan sake ginawa fiye da dozin biyu, ta amfani da hanyoyin ƙididdiga daban-daban da haɗuwa da bayanan wakili, tare da bambance-bambancen yadda za a iya faɗi. kafin karni na 20 "shaft" ya bayyana.

Jerin sake ginawa a cikin tsari na bugawa

• Huntington 1915 “Civilization and Climate”.
• Lamb 1965 "The early medieval warm epoch and its sequel".
• Groveman & Landsberg 1979 "Simulated northern hemisphere temperature departures 1579–1880".
• Jacoby & D'Arrigo 1989 "Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere annual temperature since 1671 based on high-latitude tree-ring data from North America".
• Bradley & Jones 1993 "Little Ice Age summer temperature variations; their nature and relevance to recent global warming trends".
• Hughes & Diaz 1994 "Was there a ‘medieval warm period’, and if so, where and when?".
• Mann, Park & Bradley 1995 "Global interdecadal and century-scale climate oscillations during the past five centuries".
• Overpeck et al. 1997 "Arctic Environmental Change of the Last Four Centuries".
• Fisher 1997 "High resolution reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperatures for the last few centuries: using regional average tree ring, ice core and historical annual time series".

An kawo a cikin IPCC TAR

Rahoton kimantawa na uku na IPCC (TAR WG1) na 2001 ya kawo abubuwan sake ginawa masu zuwa suna goyan bayan ƙarshenta cewa shekarun 1990 na iya kasancewa mafi zafi a Arewacin Hemisphere shekaru goma na shekaru 1,000:

• Mann, Bradley & Hughes 1998 "Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries"
• Jones et al. 1998 "High-resolution palaeoclimatic records for the last millennium: interpretation, integration and comparison with General Circulation Model control-run temperatures".
• Pollack, Huang & Shen 1998 "Climate change record in subsurface temperatures: A global perspective".
• Mann, Bradley & Hughes 1999 "Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations".
• Briffa 2000 "Annual climate variability in the Holocene: interpreting the message of ancient trees".
• Crowley & Lowery 2000 "How Warm Was the Medieval Warm Period?".

An kawo a cikin Rahoton NRC (Rahoton Arewa)

North et al. 2006 highlighted six recent reconstructions, one of which was not cited in AR4:

• Huang, Pollack & Shen 2000 "Temperature trends over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures"

An ambata a cikin IPCC AR4

Rahoton kimantawa na huɗu na IPCC (AR4 WG1) na 2007 ya kawo waɗannan gyare-gyare masu zuwa don goyan bayan kammalawarsa cewa ƙarni na 20 zai'iya kasancewa mafi zafi a Arewacin Hemisphere na akalla shekaru 1,300:

• Jones et al. (1998) [kuma a cikin TAR], wanda Jones, Osborn & Briffa 2001 "Juyin Juyin Halitta Sama da Millennium Na Ƙarshe".
• Mann, Bradley & Hughes (1999) [kuma a cikin TAR]
• Briffa (2000) [kuma a cikin TAR], wanda Briffa, Osborn & Schweingruber 2004 "Babban bayanin zafin jiki daga zoben itace: bita".
• Crowley & Lowery 2000 "Yaya Dumu-dumu Ya Kasance Lokacin Dumi Na Tsakanin?" [kuma in TAR]
• Briffa et al. 2001 "Bambancin yanayin zafi mai ƙarancin mitoci daga cibiyar sadarwa mai yawa na zobe na arewa".
• Esper, Cook & Schweingruber 2002 "Signal-Ƙananan Mitar a cikin Dogon Bishiyoyi-Ring Chronologies don Sake Gina Canjin Zazzabi na Baya",
  
  
  
  recalibrated by Cook, Esper & D'Arrigo 2004 "Saɓanin yanayin zafin ƙasa mai zafi na Arewacin Hemisphere a cikin shekaru 1000 da suka gabata".
• Mann & Jones 2003 "Zazzabi na duniya a cikin shekaru dubu biyu da suka wuce."
• Pollack & Smerdon 2004 "Sake gina yanayi na rijiyoyin burtsatse: Tsarin sararin samaniya da matsakaicin hemispheric".
• Oerlemans 2005 "Fitar da siginar yanayi daga 169 glacier records".
• Rutherford et al. 2005 "Sake gina yanayin zafin jiki na tushen wakili na Arewacin Hemisphere: Hankali ga hanya, cibiyar sadarwa mai tsinkaya, lokacin manufa, da yankin manufa".
• Moberg et al. 2005 "Maɗaukakin yanayin zafi na Arewacin Hemisphere da aka sake ginawa daga ƙananan bayanai masu ƙima da ƙima".
• D'Arrigo, Wilson & Jacoby 2006 "A kan mahallin dogon lokaci na ƙarshen karni na ashirin".
• Osborn & Briffa 2006 "Matsalar sararin samaniya na ƙarni na 20 a cikin mahallin shekaru 1200 da suka gabata".
• Hegerl et al. 2006 "Hanyoyin yanayi da aka ƙuntata ta hanyar sake gina yanayin zafi a cikin ƙarni bakwai da suka gabata".

An ambata a cikin IPCC AR5

Rahoton kimantawa na biyar na IPCC (AR5 WG1) na 2013 yayi nazarin bambance-bambancen yanayin zafi acikin shekaru dubu biyu da suka gabata, kuma ya kawo abubuwan sake ginawa don tallafawa ƙarshensa cewa matsakaicin yanayin zafi na Arewacin Hemisphere na shekara-shekara,"lokacin 1983-2012 ya kasance mai yuwuwa 30 mafi zafi.-shekara na shekaru 800 na ƙarshe (babban amincewa) kuma wataƙila mafi kyawun lokacin shekaru 30 na shekaru 1400 da suka gabata (matsakaicin amincewa)":

• Pollack da Smerdon (2004) [kuma a cikin AR4]
• Moberg et al. (2005) [kuma a cikin AR4]
• D'Arrigo, Wilson & Jacoby (2006) [kuma a cikin AR4]
• Frank, Esper & Cook (2007) "Gyara don lambar wakili da haɗin kai a cikin babban sake gina yanayin zafi".
• Hegerl et al. (2007) "Gano tasirin ɗan adam akan sabon, ingantattun 1500-shekara zazzabi sake ginawa".
• Juckes et al. 2007 "Millennial zazzabi sake ginawa intercomparison da kimantawa".
• Loehle & McCulloch (2008) "Gyara zuwa: 2000 na shekara ta 2000 na sake gina yanayin zafi na duniya bisa la'akari da wadanda ba bishiyoyi ba".
• Mann et al. 2008 "Sake gina tushen wakili na hemispheric da bambancin yanayin zafi na duniya a cikin shekaru dubu biyu da suka gabata".
• Mann et al. 2009 "Sa hannu na Duniya da Tushen Mahimmanci na Ƙarshen Zaman Kan Kankara da Anomaly na Tsakiyar Yanayi".
• Ljungqvist 2010 "Sabon Sake Gina Sauyawan Zazzabi a cikin Ƙarfafan Tsafi na Arewacin Ƙarshen Ƙarshe A Lokacin Shekaru Biyu Na Ƙarshe".
• Christiansen & Ljungqvist 2012 "Ƙarin-zazzabi na Arewacin Hemisphere a cikin shekaru dubu biyu da suka gabata: Sake gina ƙananan mitoci".
• Leclercq & Oerlemans (2012) "Sake gina yanayin zafi na duniya da na Hemispheric daga tsayin glacier".
• Shi et al. 2013 "Sake gina zafin jiki na Arewacin Hemisphere a cikin ƙarni na ƙarshe ta amfani da wakilai na shekara-shekara da yawa".

Ƙarin sake ginawa

• Smith et al. 2006 "Reconstructing hemispheric-scale climates from multiple stalagmite records".
• Lee, Zwiers & Tsao 2008 "Evaluation of proxy-based millennial reconstruction methods".
• Huang, Pollack & Shen 2008 "A late Quaternary climate reconstruction based on borehole heat flux data, borehole temperature data, and the instrumental record"
• Kaufman et al. 2009 "Recent warming reverses long-term arctic cooling".
• Tingley & Huybers 2010a "A Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time".
• Christiansen & Ljungqvist 2011 "Reconstruction of the Extratropical NH Mean Temperature over the Last Millennium with a Method that Preserves Low-Frequency Variability".
• Ljungqvist et al. 2012 "Northern Hemisphere temperature patterns in the last 12 centuries".
• Marcott et al. 2013 "A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years"
• PAGES 2k Consortium 2013 (78 researchers, corresponding author Darrell S. Kaufman) "Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia"
• Raphael Neukom, Nathan Steiger, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Jianghao Wang & Johannes P. Werner 2019 "No evidence for globally coherent warm and cold periods over the preindustrial Common Era"
• PAGES 2k Consortium 2019 "Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era"