Tashin matakin teku

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Binciken matakin teku tsakanin 1993 zuwa Nuwamba 2018.
Maimaitawar tarihin teku da tsinkaye har zuwa 2100 da aka buga a cikin Janairu 2017 ta Shirin Binciken Canjin Duniya na Amurka don Assimar Canjin Yanki na huɗu.[1] RCP 2.6 shine yanayin da hayaki yake fitarwa kafin shekarar 2020, RCP 4.5 shine inda suka kai kusan 2040, kuma RCP 8.5 shine inda suke ci gaba da ƙaruwa kamar yadda suka saba.
Canjin canjin teku daga 1992 zuwa 2019 - NASA
Ganin gani ya dogara ne akan bayanan da aka tattara daga tauraron dan adam na TOPEX / Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, da Jason-3. Yankuna masu launin shudi sune inda matakin teku ya sauka, kuma yankin orange / ja shine inda matakin teku ya hau. Tsakanin 1992 da 2019, tekuna a duk duniya sun tashi kusan kusan inci 6.[2]

Tashin matakin teku a duniya ya fara ne tun farkon karni na 20. Tsakanin 1900 da 2016, matakin ruwan teku a duniya ya tashi da 16-21cm (inci 6.3-8.3).[3] Sahihin bayanan da aka tattara daga ma'aunin radar na tauraron dan adam ya nuna saurin tashi na 7.5cm (inci 3.0) daga 1993 zuwa 2017,[4] :1554 wanda yayi kusan 30cm (inci 12) a kowane ƙarni. Wannan hanzarin ya samo asali ne sanadiyyar dumamar yanayi da mutane ke haifarwa, wanda ke haifar da fadada zafin ruwan teku da narkar da manyan kankara.[5] Tsakanin 1993 da 2018, fadada yanayin zafi na tekuna ya ba da kashi 42% zuwa haɓakar teku; narkar da kankara mai matsakaici, 21%; Greenland, 15%; da Antarctica, 8%.[4] Masana kimiyyar yanayi suna tsammanin matakin zai kara sauri yayin karni na 21.[6]

Bayyana matakin teku na gaba yana da kalubale,, saboda ƙwarewar fannoni da yawa na tsarin yanayi. Kamar yadda binciken yanayi game da matakan teku na da da na yanzu ke haifar da ingantattun samfuran kwamfuta, hasashe ya ci gaba da ƙaruwa. A cikin 2007, Kungiyar gwamnatoci a kan Canjin Yanayi (IPCC) ta yi hasashen ƙarshen ƙarshe na 60 cm (ƙafa 2) zuwa 2099,[7] amma rahotonsu na 2014 ya ɗaga ƙididdigar ƙarshen zuwa kusan 90 cm (ƙafa 3).[8] Yawan karatun da aka yi daga baya sun kammala cewa hauhawar matakin teku na duniya zuwa 200 zuwa 270 cm (ƙafa 6.6 zuwa 8.9) wannan karnin "abin yarda ne da jiki".[9][4][10] Kimanin ra'ayin mazan jiya na tsinkayen lokaci shine cewa kowane Celsius digiri na hawan zafin jiki yana haifar da hawan tekun kimanin mita 2.3 (ƙafa 4.2/digiri Fahrenheit) tsawon shekaru millennia biyu (shekaru 2,000): misalin rashin yanayin yanayi.[3]

Matsayin teku ba zai tashi gaba ɗaya a ko'ina cikin Duniya ba, kuma zai ma ɗan faɗi ƙasa a wasu wurare, kamar Arctic.[11] Abubuwan cikin gida sun haɗa da tasirin tectonic da ƙarancin ƙasar, guguwa, ruwa da guguwa. Tashin matakin teku yana iya shafar yawan mutane sosai a yankunan bakin teku da yankunan tsibiri.[12] Ana tsammanin yaduwar ambaliyar bakin ruwa tare da digiri da dama na ɗumamar ɗumi na tsawon shekaru.[13] Karin tasirin shine mafi girman guguwar-hadari da tsunami mafi haɗari, ƙaurawar yawan jama'a, asara da lalacewar ƙasar noma da lalacewa a cikin birane.[14][15] Hakanan an shafi muhalli kamar halittun ruwa, tare da kifaye, tsuntsaye da tsirrai da suka rasa sassan mazauninsu.[16]

KuUngiyoyi na iya amsa hauhawar teku ta hanyoyi daban-daban guda uku: aiwatar da koma baya, saukar da canjin bakin teku, ko don kariya daga hauhawar teku ta hanyar ayyukan gini mai wuyar gaske kamar magudanar ruwa ko hanyoyin taushi kamar gyaran dune da abinci na bakin teku. Wasu lokuta wadannan dabarun karbuwa na tafiya tare hannu bibbiyu, amma a wasu lokutan dole ne a zabi tsakanin dabarun daban-daban.[17] Tsarin halittu da suka dace da hauhawar matakan teku ta motsawa cikin teku bazai yuwu ba koyaushe suyi hakan, saboda shingen halitta ko na wucin gadi.[18].

Manazarta[gyara sashe | Gyara masomin]

  1. "January 2017 analysis from NOAA: Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States" (PDF).
  2. 27-year Sea Level Rise - TOPEX/JASON NASA Visualization Studio, 5 November 2020. This article incorporates text from this source, which is in the public domain.
  3. 3.0 3.1 USGCRP (2017). "Climate Science Special Report. Chapter 12: Sea Level Rise". science2017.globalchange.gov. Retrieved 2018-12-27.
  4. 4.0 4.1 4.2 WCRP Global Sea Level Budget Group (2018). "Global sea-level budget 1993–present". Earth System Science Data. 10 (3): 1551–1590. Bibcode:2018ESSD...10.1551W. doi:10.5194/essd-10-1551-2018. This corresponds to a mean sea-level rise of about 7.5 cm over the whole altimetry period. More importantly, the GMSL curve shows a net acceleration, estimated to be at 0.08mm/yr2.
  5. Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda (8 March 2016). "Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 113 (10): 2597–2602. Bibcode:2016PNAS..113.2597M. doi:10.1073/pnas.1500515113. PMC 4791025. PMID 26903648.
  6. Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report Fifth Assessment Report, AR5 (Report). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2014. Under all RCP scenarios, the rate of sea level rise will very likely exceed the rate of 2.0 [1.7–2.3] mm/yr observed during 1971–2010
  7. IPCC, "Summary for Policymakers", Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007, page 13-14"Models used to date do not include uncertainties in climate-carbon cycle feedback nor do they include the full effects of changes in ice sheet flow, because a basis in published literature is lacking."
  8. Mooney, Chris. "Scientists keep upping their projections for how much the oceans will rise this century". Washington Post.
  9. Bamber, Jonathan L.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Kopp, Robert E.; Aspinall, Willy P.; Cooke, Roger M. (June 4, 2019). "Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 116 (23): 11195–11200. doi:10.1073/pnas.1817205116. PMID 31110015 – via www.pnas.org.
  10. Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States (PDF) (Report) (NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 083 ed.). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. January 2017. p. vi. Retrieved 24 August 2018."The projections and results presented in several peer-reviewed publications provide evidence to support a physically plausible GMSL rise in the range of 2.0 meters (m) to 2.7 m, and recent results regarding Antarctic ice-sheet instability indicate that such outcomes may be more likely than previously thought."
  11. "The strange science of melting ice sheets: three things you didn't know". The Guardian. 12 September 2018.
  12. Bindoff, N.L.; Willebrand, J.; Artale, V.; Cazenave, A.; Gregory, J.; Gulev, S.; Hanawa, K.; Le Quéré, C.; Levitus, S.; Nojiri, Y.; Shum, C.K.; Talley L.D.; Unnikrishnan, A. (2007), "Section 5.5.1: Introductory Remarks", in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007 (ed.), Chapter 5: Observations: Ocean Climate Change and Sea Level, ISBN 978-0-521-88009-1, retrieved 25 January 2017CS1 maint: multiple names: editors list (link)
  13. Box SYN-1: Sustained warming could lead to severe impacts, p. 5, in: Synopsis, in National Research Council 2011
  14. IPCC TAR WG1 2001.
  15. Holder, Josh; Kommenda, Niko; Watts, Jonathan; Holder, Josh; Kommenda, Niko; Watts, Jonathan. "The three-degree world: cities that will be drowned by global warming". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2018-12-28.
  16. "Sea Level Rise". National Geographic. January 13, 2017.
  17. Thomsen, Dana C.; Smith, Timothy F.; Keys, Noni (2012). "Adaptation or Manipulation? Unpacking Climate Change Response Strategies". Ecology and Society. 17 (3). doi:10.5751/es-04953-170320. JSTOR 26269087.
  18. "Sea level rise poses a major threat to coastal ecosystems and the biota they support". birdlife.org. Birdlife International. 2015.