Sauyin yanayi a Somaliya
 Sauyin yanayi a Somaliya | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
aspect in a geographic region (en)  | ||||
| Bayanai | ||||
| Facet of (en) | canjin yanayi da Canjin yanayi | |||
| Nahiya | Afirka | |||
| Ƙasa | Somaliya | |||
| Has cause (en) | Gurbacewar Iska da Gandun daji | |||
| Yana haddasa | zafi da Canjin yanayi | |||
| Wuri | ||||
| ||||
Sauyin yanayi a Somaliya, yana nufin yanayi a Somaliya da sakamakonsa, daidaitawa da dabarun sassautawa ƙasar.
Somaliya ita ce ƙasa ta biyu mafi fuskantar matsalar sauyin yanayi a duniya.[1] Ƙasar ta ga ƙaruwar munanan yanayi tun daga shekarar 1990, tare da manyan fari guda uku tun daga shekarar 2010, da ambaliya mai taɓarɓarewa da kuma yawan fari dake lalata amfanin gona. Nan da shekara ta 2080, ana sa ran yanayin zafi zai tashi da digiri 3.4 a ma'aunin celcius, tare da ƙarin kwanaki 152 masu zafi a kowace shekara (inda mafi girman yanayin zafi zai wuce digiri 35 ma'aunin celcius).[2]
Ana sa ran sauyin yanayi zai kawo cikawa da ƙarancin ruwa da albarkatun noma a cikin ƙasar, lamarin da ke barazana ga tsaro da zaman lafiyar ƙasa.[3]
Tasirin sauyin yanayi akan yanayin yanayi
[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]Samfuran yanayi sun yi hasashen cewa, yankin Gabashin Afirka na iya fuskantar sauye-sauye na kusa a yanayi kamar yanayin zafi mai zafi, sauye-sauye a mitoci da tsananin al'amura, da raguwar hazo, da sauye-sauye na dogon lokaci kamar hawan teku. .
Juyi da canjin yanayi
[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]Somaliya gabaɗaya tana da zafi da bushewa, tare da lokutan damina guda biyu. Matsakaicin yanayin zafi a Somaliya yana cikin mafi girma a duniya. Yanayin zafi yana mamaye duk shekara, musamman a kudu maso yamma kusa da kan iyaka da ƙasar Habasha, inda yanayin zafi na shekara ya wuce 29 ° C. Babban lokacin damina shi ne daga watan Afrilu zuwa Yuni, kuma lokacin damina na biyu shi ne daga watan Oktoba zuwa Disamba. Ruwan sama na shekara-shekara a yankin arewa mai zafi da bushewa yawanci bai wuce 250 mm ba kuma yana raguwa zuwa ƙasa da mm 100 a arewa maso gabas. Yankin tsakiyar tudu yana samun tsakanin 200 zuwa 300 mm na hazo, yayin da yake karuwa zuwa kudu zuwa kusan 400 zuwa 500 mm na ruwan sama a shekara. Yankunan kudu maso yamma da arewa maso yamma suna samun mafi yawan hazo, tare da matsakaicin tsakanin 500 zuwa 700 mm.[4]
Yanayin ya canza a cikin shekaru da dama da suka gabata:[5]
- An sami ƙaruwa a hankali, ci gaba da zafin jiki na 1 zuwa 1.5C tun 1991,
- Tsananin yanayi ya yi tasiri a ƙasar, inda aka yi fama da fari a shekarar 2011 da 2017.
- Tsawaita fari, ambaliya da guguwa, sun zama ruwan dare a cikin shekaru 25 da suka gabata.[6]
Hasashen sun nuna cewa[7]
- Dukansu fari da ambaliya na iya ƙaruwa da ƙarfi da kuma mita.
- Duk da yake akwai rashin tabbas, samfuran aikin cewa ruwan sama na kowane wata zai ƙaru kaɗan daga watan Satumba zuwa Disamba tsakanin shekarun 2040-2060.
- Ana sa ran matsakaicin zafin jiki zai ƙaru da tsakanin 1-1.75°C nan da shekarun 2040-2060, kuma ana hasashen haɓakar 3.2 zuwa 4.3°C ta 2100.
Matakin Hawan teku
[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]An yi hasashen matakin teku zai tashi tare da babban tabbaci a ƙarƙashin yanayin fitarwa na gaba. Tsarin matsakaicin yanayi ya tsara hauhawar matakin teku na 12 cm har zuwa 2030, 20 cm zuwa 2050 da 36 cmhar zuwa 2080 a ƙarƙashin RCP2.6, idan aka kwatanta da shekara ta 2000. A karkashin RCP6.0 (matsalolin fitarwa a kusa da 2080, sannan ya ragu), ana sa ran matakin teku zai tashi da 11 cm har zuwa 2030, 21 cm zuwa 2050 da 42 cmhar zuwa 2080.[4][7]
Hawan matakin teku da aka tsara yana barazana ga rayuwar al'ummomin bakin teku, musamman a kudancin Somaliya, gami da babban birnin kasar Mogadishu, kuma yana iya haifar da shigar saline a cikin hanyoyin ruwa na bakin tekun da tafkunan ruwa.[8]
Wadatar ruwa
[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]Tsinkaya na wadatar ruwa ba su da tabbas a ƙarƙashin yanayin fitarwa. Ba tare da la'akari da karuwar yawan jama'a ba, samfuran suna nuna karuwa kaɗan daidai da tsinkayen hazo na gaba. Idan aka yi la'akari da karuwar yawan jama'a, ana iya sa ran yawan ruwa ga kowane mutum zuwa rabi a shekara ta 2080 a ƙarƙashin yanayin RCP2.6 da RCC6.0, kodayake rashin tabbas game da yawan ruwan da ake samu a yanzu da kuma hasashen yana da yawa sosai.[4]
Tasirin mutane
[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]An kiyasta Somaliya tana da saukin kamuwa da tasirin sauyin yanayi da matsanancin yanayi. Sakamakon ND Gain ya kai 172 a cikin 2020,[9] yana mai da shi ƙasa ta biyu mafi rauni ga canjin yanayi da sauran ƙalubalen duniya, kuma ƙasa na 120 mafi shirye don inganta juriya.
Ana sa ran tasirin canjin yanayi a Gabashin Afirka zai haifar da tasirin kai tsaye da kai a kai wanda ke shafar tsaron abinci saboda matsanancin zafin jiki da canje-canje a cikin mitar da tsananin fari.[10][7]
A hankali, ci gaba da karuwar zafin jiki daga 1 zuwa 1.5 ° C tun daga 1991, da tsawo fari, flash flood da cyclones, sun zama mafi yawa a cikin shekaru 25 da suka gabata, da kuma tasirin da m canjin yanayi, rushewar yanayi yanayi da karfi iska, guguwa da kasa lalace suna haifar da mummunar barazana ga kashi 83 cikin dari na yawan jama'a da ke dogara da sabuntawa albarkatun daga noma, kiwo, farauta, gandun daji da kamun kifi.[11]
Rashin zafin jiki da karuwa mai karfi a cikin kwanaki masu zafi sosai zai iya haifar da kara yawan bayyanar da zazzabin zafi a Somalia. Mutuwar da ke da alaƙa da zafi zai iya ƙaruwa zuwa tsakanin 2.7 da 3.3 mutuwar kowane mutum 100 000 / shekara har zuwa 2030, sannan kuma ya karu sosai zuwa magareng ga 3.6 da 11.4 mutuwar kowace mutum 100,000 / shekaru har sai 2080, dangane da yanayin fitarwa.[4]
Rage canjin yanayi da daidaitawa
[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]Babban tasirin canjin yanayi a yankin, ya sanya rage cancin yanayi da daidaitawa muhimmiyar matsala a ciki.
Manufofin da dokoki
[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]Somaliya ta kasance farkon sanya hannu kan Yarjejeniyar Yanayi ta Paris a cikin 2016.[12]
Kasar ta tsara Shirin Gudanarwa na Kasa na farko (NAPA) a cikin 2013.[13] Shirin da aka haɓaka tare da goyon bayan Shadin Ci gaban Majalisar Dinkin Duniya (UNDP), shine matakin farko na Somaliya zuwa ga dabarun daidaita yanayin ƙasa.
Rage sarrafa ruwa
[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]Tun lokacin da aka tsara shirin NAPA na farko, an sami ci gaba wajen bunkasa juriya don shirya da tsayayya da matsanancin yanayi, kamar ingantaccen gudanar da ruwa don iya tsayar da lokacin fari.
Ana rungumar hanyoyin daidaita yanayin halittu. A cikin misali daya, a karkashin aikin kula da ruwa da UNDP ke tallafawa, shirye-shiryen gandun daji da al'umma ke jagoranta suna taimakawa wajen yaki da hamada.[14]
Sauran hanyoyin sun haɗa da sake gina gine-ginen ruwa, gyaran kayan aikin ruwa. Ganuwar kare ambaliyar ruwa da hanyoyin ban ruwa na banƙyama, taswirar albarkatun ruwa le wuraren fashewa tare da koguna, maido da ƙasa, mangrove, cactus da dasa bishiyoyi, canji a cikin ayyukan kiwo da sauransu.[2]
Rage iskar gas
[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]- A cikin 2014 Somaliya tana da alhakin 36.46 MtCO2e (metric greenhouse gas (GHG) hayaki, ko 0.07% na jimlar hayakin duniya[15]
- Kowane mutum Somalis ya samar da 1.02 tCO2e na hayaki na GHG. A duk duniya shine 6.73 tCO2e ga kowane mutum.
- Aikin noma shine mafi mahimmancin bangaren fitarwa, a kashi 56% na jimlar fitar da iska.
- Canjin amfani da ƙasa da gandun daji (LUCF) sun kai kashi 36% na jimlar hayaki na ƙasar.
- Canjin amfani da ƙasa da gandun daji sun rage fitarwa da kashi 16% tsakanin 1990-2014.
- Yawan jama'ar Somaliya ya karu da kashi 390% tsakanin 1960-2010, ya kai kimanin mutane miliyan 13.5 a shekarar 2014.
A cikin 2021, Somaliya ta yi rajistar sabon shirin NDC,[16] wanda ya haɗa da babban burin rage iskar gas "kasuwanci-kamar yadda aka saba" da kashi 30 cikin dari nan da 2030 da kuma daidaitawa da tasirin canjin yanayi a ƙarƙashin Yarjejeniyar Paris ta duniya.[17][18]
Canjin yanayi da daidaitawa
[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]Sabuntawa da fasaha suna da mahimmanci don magance bangarori da yawa na rikicin yanayi, wannan ya haɗa da daidaitawar canjin yanayi. Saboda canje-canje a cikin matsanancin yanayi da hauhawar matakin teku, saboda canjin yanayi, Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ta ba da shawarar tsarin gargadi na farko[19] a matsayin mahimman abubuwa na daidaita canji na yanayi le kuma kula da haɗarin yanayi. Ci gaban fasaha ya ba da damar haifar da amsawa da sauri ga barazanar kamar tsutsa.[20] Yanayin ruwan sama ya haifar da yanayi mai kyau ga tsutsa don haifuwa. Harin da suka yi ya haifar da barazana ga tsaron abinci, inda karamin rukuni na 1km2 zai iya cinye amfanin gona da ciyayi a rana daya kawai wanda zai ciyar da mutane 35000. FAO ta ba da tsarin gargadi na farko don jinkirta yanayin sa ido wanda ke goyon bayan mamayewar damisa zuwa Somalia. Tsarin sa ido da sarrafawa na locus ya dogara da hotunan tauraron dan adam da kuma yanayin yanayi da bayanan mazaunin kuma yana iya yin faɗakarwa har zuwa makonni shida kafin yiwuwar mamayewa. Don yin tattara bayanai da yawa, an haɓaka aikace-aikacen wayar salula kuma an gyara mai sadarwa na tauraron dan adam don ba da damar manoma ba tare da haɗin kai ba don tattarawa bayanai.[21]
Duba kuma
[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]- Karancin ruwa a Afirka
Manazarta
[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]- ↑ "Vulnerability rankings | ND-GAIN Index". gain-new.crc.nd.edu. Retrieved 2023-03-21.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 "The best 'glimmers of hope' against climate change in Somalia". 2022.
- ↑ ISSAfrica.org (2018-04-06). "Climate change is feeding armed conflict in Somalia". ISS Africa (in Turanci). Retrieved 2023-03-22.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 "Climate Risk Profile Somalia" (PDF).
- ↑ "USAID/SOMALIA COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION STRATEGY CLIMATE ANALYSIS" (PDF).
- ↑ "The Impact of Climate Change on Peace and Security in Somalia: Implications for AMISOM". ACCORD (in Turanci). Retrieved 2023-03-21.
- ↑ 7.0 7.1 7.2 "World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal". climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org (in Turanci). Retrieved 2023-03-22.
- ↑ El-Shahat, S., El-Zafarany, A. M., El Seoud, T.A. & Ghoniem, S.A., “Vulnerability assessment of African coasts to sea level rise using GIS and remote sensing,” Environmentl, Development and Sustainability, vol. 23, pp. 2827-2845, 2021.
- ↑ "Somalia | ND-GAIN Index". gain-new.crc.nd.edu. Retrieved 2023-03-21.
- ↑ "Climate Change Adaptation in EAST AFRICA" (PDF). USAID.
- ↑ "The Impact of Climate Change on Peace and Security in Somalia: Implications for AMISOM". ACCORD (in Turanci). Retrieved 2023-03-21.
- ↑ "An unlikely early adopter of Paris climate agreement: Somalia".
- ↑ "NATIONAL ADAPTATION PROGRAMME OF ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE (NAPA)" (PDF). 2013.
- ↑ "Support for Integrated Water Resources Management to Ensure Water Access and Disaster Reduction for Somalia's Pastoralists | UNDP Climate Change Adaptation". www.adaptation-undp.org (in Turanci). Retrieved 2023-03-21.
- ↑ "USAID/Somalia Development Cooperation Strategy (CDCS) Annex: Climate Change Analysis". www.climatelinks.org (in Turanci). Retrieved 2023-03-21.
- ↑ "Somalia Submits Enhanced NDC, Recognizing Climate Crisis' Urgency by Emphasizing Adaptation With Mitigation Co-benefits | NDC Partnership". ndcpartnership.org (in Turanci). Archived from the original on 2023-03-22. Retrieved 2023-03-21.
- ↑ "How Somalia, one of the world's most fragile states, is working for a more resilient, low-carbon future | UNDP Climate Change Adaptation". www.adaptation-undp.org (in Turanci). Archived from the original on 2023-03-22. Retrieved 2023-03-21.
- ↑ "Somalia Climate Change Data | Emissions and Policies". www.climatewatchdata.org. Retrieved 2023-03-22.
- ↑ Nations, United. "Early Warning Systems". United Nations (in Turanci). Retrieved 2023-03-22.
- ↑ Somalia, UNDP (2020-12-08). "Early warning system helps farmers survive floods and droughts". Medium (in Turanci). Retrieved 2023-03-21.
- ↑ "Green Technology Book 2022. Solutions for climate change adaptation" (PDF). WIPO. 2022. p. 83.