Dimming duniya

Ƙara hanyoyin mahaɗar
Daga Wikipedia, Insakulofidiya ta kyauta.

 

Ma'auni na tsari na farko na rashin haske kai tsaye a duniya ya fara ne a cikin 1950s. Ba da daɗewa ba an ga raguwar rashin haske, kuma an ba shi sunan dusashewar duniya . Ya ci gaba daga 1950s har zuwa 1980s, tare da raguwar 4-5% a kowace shekara goma, [1] ko da yake aikin hasken rana bai bambanta fiye da yadda aka saba ba a lokacin. [2] A maimakon haka an danganta raguwar dusar ƙanƙara a duniya da haɓakar abubuwan da ke cikin yanayi, galibin iskar sulfate aerosols, sakamakon gurɓatar da iska mai saurin girma sakamakon haɓakar masana'antu bayan yaƙi. Bayan 1980s, dusar ƙanƙara ta duniya ta fara juyawa, tare da raguwar gurɓataccen hayaki, a cikin abin da aka kwatanta da haskakawa na duniya, kodayake wannan juyewar ana ɗaukarsa "bangare" kawai a yanzu. [1] Juyayin kuma ya kasance ba daidai ba a duniya, yayin da yanayin raguwa ya ci gaba a cikin shekarun 1990 akan wasu galibin kasashe masu tasowa kamar Indiya, Zimbabwe, Chile da Venezuela. [3] A kan kasar Sin, yanayin dimming ya ci gaba a hankali bayan 1990, kuma bai fara komawa baya ba sai a kusa da 2005.

Dimming na duniya ya tsoma baki tare da zagayowar ruwa ta hanyar rage danshi, wanda mai yiwuwa ya rage yawan ruwan sama a wasu yankuna, [1] kuma mai yiwuwa ya haifar da canjin yanayin kudu na dukkan bel na ruwan zafi tsakanin 1950 da 1985, tare da takaitaccen murmurewa daga baya. . [4] Tunda ana buƙatar yawan ƙawancen ruwa a wurare masu zafi don fitar da lokacin damina, sanyin da ke haifar da gurɓataccen gurɓataccen abu ya bayyana yana raunana damina ta Kudancin Asiya, yayin da raguwar gurɓataccen gurɓataccen abu ke ƙarfafa shi. [5] Yawancin karatu sun kuma haɗa matakan rikodin gurɓataccen gurɓataccen gurɓataccen abu a cikin Arewacin Hemisphere zuwa rashin nasarar damina a bayan yunwar Habasha ta 1984, [6] [7] kodayake cikakken tasirin ɗan adam vs. tasirin yanayi akan wannan taron har yanzu ana jayayya. [8] A gefe guda kuma, dusar ƙanƙara ta duniya ta kuma magance wasu gurɓacewar iskar gas, yadda ya kamata, ta "rufe" adadin ɗumamar yanayi da aka fuskanta har zuwa yau, tare da mafi ƙazantar ƙazantar da ƙasa har ma da samun sanyi a cikin 1970s. Sabanin haka, haskaka duniya ya taimaka wajen haɓaka ɗumamar yanayi wanda ya fara a cikin 1990s. [1] [9]

Nan gaba kadan, ana sa ran za a ci gaba da haskakawa a duniya, yayin da kasashe ke kokarin rage yawan gurbacewar iska ga lafiyar 'yan kasarsu. Wannan kuma yana nufin rage dumamar yanayi za a rufe shi nan gaba. Samfuran yanayin yanayi suna da ikon yin kwatankwacin tasirin aerosols kamar sulfates, kuma a cikin rahoton kimantawa na IPCC na shida, an yi imanin cewa za su kashe kusan 0.5 °C (0.90 °F) . na dumama. Hakanan, yanayin yanayin canjin yanayi ya haɗa da raguwa a cikin ɓarna da sanyaya da suka bayar a cikin hasashensu, kuma wannan ya haɗa da yanayin yanayin yanayin da ake buƙata don saduwa da 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) da 2 °C (3.6 °F) hari. [10] An yi imani da cewa sanyaya da aka samar ta hanyar dimming duniya yayi kama da ɗumamar da aka samu daga methane na yanayi, ma'ana cewa raguwa a lokaci guda a duka biyu zai soke juna yadda ya kamata. Koyaya, rashin tabbas ya kasance game da wakilcin samfuran na tasirin iska akan tsarin yanayi, musamman a yankuna da ke da mafi ƙarancin tarihin tarihi na abubuwan gani na yanayi. [11]

Hanyoyin da ke bayan dusashewar duniya sun yi kama da waɗanda ke haifar da raguwar hasken rana kai tsaye bayan fashewar aman wuta . Haƙiƙa, fashewar Dutsen Pinatubo a cikin 1991 ta ɗan canza yanayin da ke haskakawa na ɗan lokaci. [12] Dukkan hanyoyin biyu ana daukar su a matsayin analog don allurar aerosol na stratospheric, sa baki na geoengineering na hasken rana wanda ke da nufin magance dumamar yanayi ta hanyar fitowar da gangan aerosols, duk da haka a mafi girman tsayi, inda za a buƙaci ƙananan ƙima kuma za a rage tasirin gurɓatawa. [13] Duk da haka, yayin da wannan sa hannun zai iya yin tasiri sosai wajen dakatarwa ko juyar da ɗumamar da babban sakamakonsa, zai kuma sami tasiri mai yawa akan zagayowar ruwa ta duniya, da yanayin yanki da yanayin muhalli . Saboda tasirinsa na ɗan lokaci ne kawai, dole ne a kiyaye shi tsawon ƙarni har sai an daidaita yawan iskar gas ɗin don gujewa saurin dawowa da tashin hankali na ɗumamar, wani lokaci ana kiranta girgiza ƙarewa . [14]

Tarihi[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]

  A ƙarshen shekarun 1960, Mikhail Ivanovich Budyko ya yi aiki tare da nau'ikan yanayin yanayi mai sauƙi na ma'aunin makamashi-biyu don bincika tasirin kankara. [15] Ya gano cewa ra'ayin kankara-albedo ya haifar da madaidaicin ra'ayi a cikin tsarin yanayin duniya. Yawan dusar ƙanƙara da ƙanƙara, ƙarin hasken rana yana haskakawa zuwa sararin samaniya kuma saboda haka yanayin sanyi yana girma kuma yana ƙara yawan dusar ƙanƙara. Wasu bincike sun nuna cewa gurɓatarwar sulfate ko fashewar dutsen na iya haifar da farkon lokacin kankara. [16]

A cikin 1980s, bincike a Isra'ila da Netherlands sun nuna raguwa a cikin adadin hasken rana, da Atsumu Ohmura, wani masanin ilimin geography a Cibiyar Fasaha ta Tarayya ta Swiss, ya gano cewa hasken rana da ke mamaye saman duniya ya ragu da ƙari. fiye da kashi 10 cikin 100 a cikin shekaru ukun da suka gabata, kamar yadda yanayin zafi a duniya gabaɗaya ke ƙaruwa tun shekarun 1970. A cikin 1990s, wannan ya biyo bayan takardun da ke kwatanta raguwar shekaru goma a Estonia, [17] Jamus [18] da kuma a cikin tsohuwar Tarayyar Soviet, [19] wanda ya sa mai bincike Gerry Stanhill ya tsara kalmar "dutsewar duniya". [20] Binciken da aka yi a baya ya kiyasta matsakaicin raguwar hasken rana wanda ke mamaye saman duniya na kusan 4-5% a cikin shekaru goma sama da ƙarshen 1950-1980s, da 2-3% a kowace shekara goma lokacin da aka haɗa 1990s. [20] [21] [22] [23] Musamman ma, hasken rana a saman sararin samaniya bai bambanta da fiye da 0.1-0.3% ba a duk tsawon lokacin, yana nuna karfi da cewa dalilan da suka haifar da dimming sun kasance a duniya. [2] Bugu da ƙari, hasken da ake iya gani da hasken infrared kawai aka dusashe, maimakon ɓangaren ultraviolet na bakan.

Juyawa[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]

Iskar da ke toshe rana a duniya tana raguwa (layin ja) tun bayan fashewar tsaunin Pinatubo a shekarar 1991, bisa kiyasin tauraron dan adam. Credit: Michael Mishchenko, NASA

Tun daga shekara ta 2005, takardun kimiyya sun fara ba da rahoton cewa bayan 1990, yanayin dusar ƙanƙara a duniya ya canza a fili zuwa haskaka duniya. [24] [25] Hakan ya biyo bayan matakan da kasashen da suka ci gaba suka dauka na yaki da gurbacewar iska da aka yi amfani da su ta hanyar samar da gurbatacciyar iskar iskar gas a masana'antar wutar lantarki, kamar goge goge ko kona gadaje mai ruwa . [26] A cikin Amurka, sulfate aerosols sun ƙi sosai tun 1970 tare da nassi na Dokar Tsabtace Tsabtace, wanda aka ƙarfafa a cikin 1977 da 1990. A cewar EPA, daga 1970 zuwa 2005, jimillar fitar da manyan gurbatacciyar iska guda shida, gami da sulfates, sun ragu da kashi 53% a Amurka. A shekara ta 2010, wannan raguwar gurɓacewar sulfate ya haifar da kiyasin tanadin kuɗin kiwon lafiya da aka ƙima a dala biliyan 50 a shekara. An dauki irin wannan matakan a Turai, [27] kamar yarjejeniyar Helsinki ta 1985 kan Rage hayakin Sulfur a ƙarƙashin Yarjejeniyar Kan Gubawar Iska mai Tsawon Tsawon Iyakoki, tare da irin wannan cigaba.

Orange akan taswira yana nuna wuraren zafi na sulfate aerosol a cikin shekarun 2005-2007.

A daya hannun kuma, wani bita da aka yi a shekarar 2009 ya nuna cewa, ana ci gaba da dusashewa a kasar Sin bayan da aka samu kwanciyar hankali a shekarun 1990 kuma ya kara tsananta a Indiya, daidai da ci gaba da bunkasar masana'antu, yayin da Amurka, Turai, da Koriya ta Kudu suka ci gaba da haskakawa. Shaidu daga Zimbabwe, Chile da Venezuela kuma sun yi nuni da ci gaba da dusashewa a lokacin, duk da cewa a cikin karancin amincewa saboda karancin abubuwan lura. [3] [28] Saboda waɗannan abubuwan da suka bambanta, babu wani canji mai mahimmanci da ya faru a duniya daga 2001 zuwa 2012. [1] Abubuwan lura bayan 2010 sun nuna cewa raguwar iskar iska da raguwar gurɓataccen iska a duniya ya ci gaba, tare da kula da gurbataccen yanayi a kan masana'antar jigilar kayayyaki ta duniya suna taka muhimmiyar rawa a cikin 'yan shekarun nan. [29] Tun da kusan kashi 90 cikin 100 na al'ummar bil'adama suna zaune a Arewacin Hemisphere, gizagizai sun fi shafar iska fiye da na Kudancin Hemisphere, amma waɗannan bambance-bambance sun ragu da rabi a cikin shekaru ashirin da suka gabata tun daga 2000, suna ba da ƙarin shaida ga ci gaba da haskakawa a duniya.

Dalilai[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]

Smog, da aka gani a nan a Gadar Golden Gate, mai yiwuwa mai ba da gudummawa ga raguwar duniya.

An danganta raguwar dusar ƙanƙara a ko'ina saboda haɓakar ƙwayoyin aerosol a cikin yanayin duniya, galibi na sulfates . Yayin da kura ta yanayi ita ma iska ce da ke da wasu tasiri kan yanayi, kuma fashewar aman wuta tana kara yawan sinadarin sulfate cikin kankanin lokaci, wadannan tasirin sun lalace ta hanyar karuwar hayakin sulfate tun farkon juyin juya halin masana'antu . Bisa ga rahoton kima na farko na IPCC, fitar da sulfur da ɗan adam ya haifar a cikin yanayi bai wuce tan miliyan 3 a kowace shekara a 1860 ba, duk da haka ya karu zuwa 15. miliyan ton a cikin 1900, 40 ton miliyan a 1940 kuma kusan miliyan 80 a 1980. Wannan yana nufin cewa hayakin da ɗan adam ya haifar ya zama “aƙalla girma” kamar yadda duk abubuwan da ke fitar da sinadarai masu ɗauke da sulfur: tushen mafi girma na halitta, fitar da dimethyl sulfide daga teku, an kiyasata da tan miliyan 40 a kowace shekara, yayin da aman wuta ke fitarwa. an kiyasta a 10 ton miliyan. Haka kuma, wannan shi ne matsakaicin adadi: a cewar rahoton, "a yankuna masu ci gaban masana'antu na Turai da Arewacin Amirka, hayaƙin ɗan adam ya mamaye gurɓacewar yanayi da kusan kashi goma ko ma fiye da haka". [30]

Big Brown Cloud Storm akan Asiya.

Aerosols da sauran barbashi na yanayi suna da tasirin kai tsaye da kaikaice akan adadin hasken rana da aka samu a saman. Kai tsaye, barbashi na sulfur dioxide suna nuna kusan dukkan hasken rana, kamar ƙananan madubai. A daya bangaren kuma, rashin cikar konewar albarkatun mai (kamar dizal ) da itace yana fitar da barbashi na bakar carbon (mafi yawa soot ), wanda ke shakar hasken rana da zafi, yana rage yawan hasken rana da ake samu a saman yayin da kuma ke ba da gudummawa ga dumamar yanayi. . Baƙar fata carbon ƙaramin abu ne na gurɓataccen iska a matakan ƙasa, duk da haka yana da tasirin dumama yanayi a tsayin sama da kilomita biyu (6,562). ft).

A kaikaice, gurɓataccen yanayi yana shafar yanayin ta hanyar aiki azaman tsakiya, ma'ana cewa ɗigon ruwa a cikin gajimare suna haɗuwa kewaye da barbashi. Ƙara gurɓataccen gurɓataccen abu yana haifar da ƙarin ɓarna kuma ta haka ne ya haifar da gajimare wanda ya ƙunshi mafi yawan adadin ƙananan ɗigon ruwa (wato, adadin ruwan da aka bazu a kan ƙarin ɗigon ruwa). Ƙananan ɗigon ruwa suna sa gajimare ya zama mai haskakawa, ta yadda ƙarin hasken rana mai shigowa ya koma sararin samaniya kuma ƙasa da ƙasa ya isa saman duniya. Wannan tasiri iri ɗaya kuma yana nuna radiation daga ƙasa, yana kama shi a cikin ƙananan yanayi. A cikin samfura, waɗannan ƙananan ɗigon ruwa kuma suna rage ruwan sama. [31] A cikin 1990s, gwaje-gwajen da aka kwatanta yanayi a kan arewaci da kudancin tsibirin Maldives, sun nuna cewa sakamakon gurɓataccen iska a cikin yanayi a lokacin (wanda aka busa daga kudu daga Indiya) ya haifar da raguwar 10% na hasken rana da ke kaiwa saman a cikin sararin samaniya. yanki a ƙarƙashin girgije mai launin ruwan Asiya - raguwa mai yawa fiye da yadda ake tsammani daga gaban ƙwayoyin da kansu. [32] Kafin binciken da aka yi, tsinkaya sun kasance na 0.5-1% tasiri daga kwayoyin halitta; bambance-bambancen daga tsinkaya na iya bayyana ta hanyar samuwar gajimare tare da barbashi da ke aiki azaman mai da hankali ga ƙirƙirar digo.

Dangantaka da sauyin yanayi[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]

Wannan adadi yana nuna matakin yarjejeniya tsakanin tsarin yanayi da abubuwa biyar ke tafiyar da shi da kuma tarihin yanayin zafi na tarihi . Mummunan bangaren da aka gano a matsayin "sulfate" yana da alaƙa da hayaƙin iska da ake zargi da dimming duniya.

An dade an fahimci cewa duk wani tasiri akan iskar hasken rana daga iska zai iya yin tasiri ga ma'aunin radiation ta duniya . An riga an sami raguwar yanayin zafi bayan manyan tsaunuka kamar fashewar tsaunin Agung a Bali a 1963, fashewar El Chichón a Mexico a 1982, fashewar Nevado del Ruiz a Colombia da fashewar 1991 na Dutsen Pinatubo a Philippines. Koyaya, har ma da manyan fashewar abubuwa kawai suna haifar da tsalle-tsalle na ɗan lokaci na barbashi sulfur, sabanin ƙarin ci gaba mai dorewa sakamakon gurɓataccen ɗan adam. A cikin 1990, Rahoton Ƙididdigar Farko na IPCC ya yarda cewa "Aerosols da ɗan adam ke yi, daga sulfur da ake fitarwa mafi yawa a cikin konewar mai zai iya canza girgije kuma wannan na iya yin aiki don rage yanayin zafi", yayin da "ana iya sa ran raguwar hayakin sulfur zai ƙara karuwa a duniya. yanayin zafi". Duk da haka, rashin bayanan lura da wahalhalu wajen kididdige tasirin kai tsaye kan gajimare ya sa rahoton ya kasa yin kiyasin ko jimillar tasirin da ke tattare da duk wani iskar aerosols a kan yanayin duniya ya kai ga sanyaya ko dumamar yanayi. [30] A shekara ta 1995, Rahoton Ƙimar Na Biyu na IPCC ya ƙididdige yawan tasirin aerosols a matsayin mummunan (sanyi); duk da haka, an gane aerosols a matsayin mafi girman tushen rashin tabbas a cikin tsinkaya na gaba a cikin wannan rahoto da kuma na gaba. [1]

A kololuwar dusashewar duniya, ta sami damar magance yanayin dumamar yanayi gaba daya, amma a shekarar 1975, ci gaba da karuwar yawan iskar gas ya shawo kan tasirin rufe fuska kuma ya mamaye tun daga lokacin. Ko da a lokacin, yankunan da ke da yawan iskar sulfate aerosols saboda gurɓacewar iska sun fara samun sanyi, wanda ya saba wa yanayin ɗumamar yanayi gaba ɗaya. Gabashin Amurka babban misali ne: yanayin zafi a wurin ya ragu da 0.7 °C (1.3 °F) tsakanin 1970 zuwa 1980, kuma har zuwa 1 °C (1.8 °F) a cikin Arkansas da Missouri . Yayin da gurɓatar sulfate ta ragu, tsakiya da gabashin Amurka sun sami ɗumamar 0.3 °C (0.54 °F) tsakanin 1980 da 2010, kamar yadda sulfate barbashi har yanzu suna lissafin kusan kashi 25% na duk abubuwan da aka samu . Zuwa shekarar 2021, gabar tekun arewa maso gabashin Amurka ta kasance daya daga cikin yankuna mafi saurin dumamar yanayi a Arewacin Amurka, yayin da raguwar da'awar juyewar yanayin ruwan tekun Atlantika ya kara zafi a wancan bangare na Arewacin Tekun Atlantika. [33]

A duniya baki daya, bayyanar matsanancin zafi fiye da bayanan masana'antu ya jinkirta ta hanyar sanyaya iska, kuma matsanancin zafi ya karu yayin da duniya ke raguwa: an kiyasta cewa tun daga tsakiyar shekarun 1990, yanayin zafi na yau da kullun a arewa maso gabashin Asiya da mafi zafi a cikin shekara. Yammacin Turai da ba zai yi zafi sosai ba idan yawan iska ya kasance iri ɗaya kamar da. [1] A cikin Turai, raguwar aerosol mai yawa tun daga shekarun 1980 ya kuma rage hazo mai alaƙa da hazo, hazo da hazo : gabaɗaya, ita ce ke da alhakin kusan 10-20% na ɗumamar rana a duk faɗin Turai, kuma kusan kashi 50% na ɗumamar yanayi a kan mafi gurɓataccen yanayi. Gabashin Turai. [34] Saboda sanyaya aerosol ya dogara da nuna hasken rana, haɓaka ingancin iska yana da tasiri mara kyau akan yanayin lokacin hunturu, [35] amma ya haɓaka yanayin zafi daga Afrilu zuwa Satumba da kusan 1 °C (1.8 °F) a Tsakiya da Gabashin Turai. [36] Wasu daga cikin haɓaka matakin hawan teku, da haɓakawar Arctic da raguwar ƙanƙarar tekun Arctic, an kuma danganta su da raguwar aerosol masking. [37] [38]

Lalacewa daga carbon baƙar fata, galibi ana wakilta ta soot, kuma yana ba da gudummawa ga dusashewar duniya. Duk da haka, saboda yana ɗaukar zafi maimakon ya nuna shi, yana dumama duniya maimakon sanyaya ta kamar sulfates. Wannan dumamar yanayi yana da rauni fiye da na iskar gas, amma yana iya zama mahimmanci a yanki lokacin da aka ajiye baƙar fata carbon akan kankara kamar glaciers glaciers da Greenland ice sheet, inda ya rage su albedo da kuma ƙara su sha na hasken rana radiation. [39] Ko da tasirin da ba a kai tsaye ba na barbashi na soot da ke aiki a matsayin gajimare ba su da ƙarfi don samar da sanyaya: “girgiza mai launin ruwan kasa” da aka kafa a kusa da ɓangarorin soot an san suna da tasirin dumamar yanayi tun daga shekarun 2000. [40] Baƙar fata gurɓataccen carbon yana da ƙarfi musamman akan Indiya, kuma sakamakon haka, ana ɗaukarsa ɗaya daga cikin ƴan yankuna da tsaftace gurbataccen iska zai rage, maimakon haɓaka, dumama. [41]

Tunda canje-canjen aerosol ya riga ya yi tasiri a kan yanayin duniya, dole ne su yi tasiri akan hasashen nan gaba ma. A gaskiya ma, ba zai yuwu a yi cikakken kimanta tasirin dumamawar duk iskar gas ba tare da yin lissafin yadda ake magance sanyaya daga iska ba. Samfuran yanayi sun fara yin la'akari da tasirin sulfate aerosols a kusa da Rahoton Ƙimar Na biyu na IPCC ; lokacin da aka buga Rahoton Ƙimar Na huɗu na IPCC a cikin 2007, kowane samfurin yanayi yana da hadedde sulfates, amma 5 ne kawai suka sami damar yin lissafin abubuwan da ba su da tasiri kamar baƙin carbon. Ta hanyar 2021, ƙirar CMIP6 sun ƙididdige jimlar aerosol sanyaya a cikin kewayon daga 0.1 °C (0.18 °F) zuwa 0.7 °C (1.3 °F) ; [42] Rahoton kimantawa na shida na IPCC ya zaɓi mafi kyawun kimanta 0.5 °C (0.90 °F) sanyaya da aka samar da sulfate aerosols, yayin da baƙin carbon ya kai kusan 0.1 °C (0.18 °F) na dumama. [10] Duk da yake waɗannan dabi'u sun dogara ne akan haɗa ƙididdiga na ƙididdiga tare da ƙuntatawa na lura, ciki har da waɗanda ke cikin yanayin zafi na teku, [29] har yanzu batun bai daidaita ba. Bambanci tsakanin kididdigar ƙiyasin ya samo asali ne daga rashin jituwa game da tasirin iska a kaikaice akan gajimare. [43] Duk da yake an san cewa aerosols yana ƙara yawan ɗigon girgije kuma wannan yana sa gizagizai sun fi nunawa, ƙididdige yadda hanyar ruwa ta ruwa, wani muhimmin kayan girgije, ya shafi kasancewar su ya fi kalubale, kamar yadda ya haɗa da ƙididdiga masu nauyi na ci gaba da ƙididdigewa. evaporation da condensation a cikin gajimare. Samfuran yanayin gabaɗaya suna ɗauka cewa iska mai iska yana haɓaka hanyar ruwa mai ruwa, wanda ke sa gajimare ya ƙara yin tunani. [44]

Hannun jirgin ruwa mai gani a cikin Arewacin Pacific, a ranar 4 ga Maris 2009.

Koyaya, binciken tauraron dan adam da aka ɗauka a cikin 2010s ya ba da shawarar cewa iska ta rage hanyar ruwa a maimakon haka, kuma a cikin 2018, an sake yin wannan a cikin wani tsari wanda ya haɗa ƙarin hadaddun microphysics ga girgije. Duk da haka, bincike na 2019 ya gano cewa binciken tauraron dan adam a baya ya kasance mai ban sha'awa ta hanyar kasa yin la'akari da mafi kauri, yawancin gizagizai masu nauyi da ruwa a dabi'a suna yawan zubar da ruwa: ana ganin sanyaya iska mai karfi sosai lokacin da aka kwatanta gajimare masu kauri iri daya. Haka kuma, manyan abubuwan lura na iya ruɗewa ta hanyar sauye-sauyen wasu abubuwan yanayi, kamar zafi: watau an gano cewa yayin da bayan 1980 inganta ingancin iska zai rage yawan gizagizai a Gabashin Gabashin Amurka da kusan 20. %, wannan an daidaita shi ta hanyar haɓakar ɗanɗanon ɗanɗano da ke haifar da amsawar yanayi ga raguwar AMOC . Hakazalika, yayin da binciken farko na kallon sulfates daga fashewar Barɗarbunga na 2014-2015 ya gano cewa ba su haifar da canji a hanyar ruwa mai ruwa ba, [45] daga baya an nuna cewa wannan binciken ya rikice ta hanyar magance canje-canje a cikin zafi. [46] Don kauce wa rikice-rikice, yawancin abubuwan lura da tasirin aerosol suna mayar da hankali kan waƙoƙin jirgin ruwa, amma binciken bayan-2020 ya gano cewa waƙoƙin jirgin da ake gani ba su da kyau ga sauran gajimare, kuma ƙididdiga da aka samo daga gare su sun yi la'akari da sanyaya aerosol da kusan 200%. [47] A lokaci guda kuma, wasu bincike sun gano cewa, galibin hanyoyin jiragen ruwa “ba a iya ganin su” ga tauraron dan adam, wanda ke nufin cewa binciken da aka yi a baya ya raina yanayin sanyaya iska ta hanyar yin biris da su. [48] A ƙarshe, bincike na 2023 ya nuna cewa duk nau'ikan yanayi sun raina hayakin sulfur daga tuddai masu aman wuta da ke faruwa a bango, a wajen manyan fashewar, don haka sun yi la'akari da sanyaya da iskar aerosols na ɗan adam ke bayarwa, musamman a yanayin Arctic. [49]

Ƙididdiga na farkon 2010s na baya da kuma na gaba anthropogenic iskar sulfur dioxide na duniya, gami da Hanyoyi na Tattaunawa na Wakilci . Duk da yake babu yanayin canjin yanayi da zai kai ga Matsakaicin Rage Ragewar da za a iya yi (MFRs), duk suna ɗaukan raguwar raguwar matakan yau. Zuwa shekarar 2019, an tabbatar da rage fitar da sulfate zai ci gaba cikin sauri. [50]

Ba tare da la'akari da ƙarfin sanyi na aerosol na yanzu ba, duk aikin yanayin canjin yanayi na gaba yana raguwa a cikin ɓangarori kuma wannan ya haɗa da yanayin inda 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) da 2 °C (3.6 °F) an cimma maƙasudi: ƙayyadaddun maƙasudin rage hayakinsu suna ɗaukar buƙatar gyara don rage raguwa. [10] Tunda samfura sun kiyasta cewa sanyaya da sulfates ke haifarwa ya yi daidai da ɗumamar da methane ke haifarwa (kuma tun da methane iskar gas ce mai ɗan gajeren lokaci), an yi imanin cewa raguwar lokaci ɗaya a duka biyun zai iya soke juna sosai. Duk da haka, a cikin 'yan shekarun nan, adadin methane yana ƙaruwa da ƙimar da ya wuce lokacin da suka gabata na haɓaka mafi girma a cikin 1980s, tare da iskar methane mai dausayi yana haifar da yawancin ci gaban kwanan nan, [51] yayin da iska. gurbacewar yanayi ana tsaftace su da karfi. [29] Wadannan dabi'un sune wasu manyan dalilan da yasa 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) ana sa ran dumama yanzu a kusa da 2030, sabanin kiyasin tsakiyar 2010 inda ba zai faru ba sai 2040. [50]

Har ila yau, an ba da shawarar cewa, ba a ba da isasshiyar kulawar da ake yi wajen tantance haɗarin da ke tattare da shi ba, duk da cewa yana da tasiri a ma'aunin yanki fiye da na duniya. [11] Misali, yanayin canjin yanayi tare da yawan hayaki mai gurbata yanayi amma raguwa mai ƙarfi a cikin gurɓataccen iska zai ga 0.2 °C (0.36 °F) ƙarin dumamar yanayi ta 2050 fiye da yanayin iri ɗaya tare da ƙarancin haɓakar ingancin iska, amma a yanki, bambancin zai ƙara ƙarin dare na wurare masu zafi 5 a kowace shekara a arewacin China kuma yana haɓaka hazo a arewacin China da arewacin Indiya . [52] Hakazalika, wata takarda da ta kwatanta matakin yanzu na manufofin iska mai tsafta tare da mafi girman ma'auni mai yuwuwar aiwatarwa a karkashin in ba haka ba yanayin yanayin sauyin yanayi iri ɗaya ya gano cewa ƙarshen zai ƙara haɗarin matsanancin zafin jiki da 30-50% a China da Turai. Abin takaici, saboda bayanan tarihi na iskar iska ba su da yawa a wasu yankuna fiye da na wasu, ingantacciyar hasashen yanki na tasirin iska yana da wahala. Ko da sabbin nau'ikan yanayi na CMIP6 na iya wakiltar daidaitaccen yanayin iska a Turai, [53] amma suna gwagwarmaya tare da wakiltar Arewacin Amurka da Asiya, ma'ana cewa hasashensu na nan gaba na tasirin yanki yana iya ƙunsar kurakurai suma.

Hannun jiragen sama da kulle-kulle[gyara sashe | gyara masomin]

Hoton NASA yana nuna hanyoyin jirgin sama da gajimare.

Gabaɗaya, ƙayyadaddun jirgin sama (wanda ake kira trail trail) an yi imani da cewa zai iya kama hasken wuta mai nisa da duniya da yanayi ke fitarwa fiye da yadda suke nuna hasken rana mai shigowa, wanda ke haifar da karuwa mai ƙarfi a cikin tilas . A cikin 1992, an kiyasta wannan tasirin zafi tsakanin 3.5 mW/m 2 da 17 mW/m 2 . [54] An ƙididdige tasirin tasirin tasirin tasirin tasirin jirgin sama daga bayanan sake nazari, ƙirar yanayi, da lambobin canja wuri mai haske ; an kiyasta a 12 mW/m 2 na 2005, tare da kewayon rashin tabbas na 5 zuwa 26 mW/m 2, kuma tare da ƙarancin fahimtar kimiyya. [55] Contrail cirrus na iya zama mafi girman bangaren tilastawa zirga-zirgar iska, wanda ya fi duk CO da aka tara daga jirgin sama, kuma zai iya ninka sau uku daga tushen 2006 zuwa 160-180. mW/m 2 ta 2050 ba tare da sa baki ba. Don kwatanta, jimillar tilastawa ta radiative daga ayyukan ɗan adam ya kai 2.72 W/m 2 (tare da kewayo tsakanin 1.96 da 3.48W/m 2 ) a cikin 2019, kuma karuwar daga 2011 zuwa 2019 kadai ya kai 0.34W/m 2 . [10]

Abubuwan da ke haifar da rikice-rikice sun bambanta da yawa dangane da lokacin da aka kafa su, yayin da suke rage yawan zafin rana kuma suna ƙara yawan zafin dare, suna rage bambancin su. A cikin 2006, an kiyasta cewa zirga-zirgar dare yana ba da gudummawar 60 zuwa 80% na tilastawa mai hana ruwa gudu yayin da yake lissafin kashi 25% na zirga-zirgar jiragen sama na yau da kullun, kuma jirage na hunturu suna ba da gudummawar rabin adadin kuzari na shekara-shekara yayin da ke lissafin kashi 22% na zirga-zirgar jiragen sama na shekara. [56] An fara daga 1990s, an ba da shawarar cewa abubuwan da ke faruwa a lokacin rana suna da tasirin sanyaya mai ƙarfi, kuma idan aka haɗa su tare da ɗumamar jiragen sama na dare, wannan zai haifar da bambancin zafin rana na yau da kullun (bambanci a cikin mafi girma na rana da raguwa a cikin wani yanayi). kafaffen tasha). Lokacin da babu wani jirgin sama na kasuwanci da ya tashi a cikin Amurka bayan harin 11 ga Satumba, yanayin zafin rana ya karu da 1.1 °C (2.0 °F) . An auna a fadin tashoshin yanayi 4,000 a cikin nahiyar Amurka, wannan karuwa shine mafi girma da aka samu cikin shekaru 30. [57] Ba tare da hani ba, kewayon zafin rana na gida ya kasance 1 °C (1.8 °F) sama da nan da nan. A kudancin Amurka, bambancin ya ragu da kusan 3.3 °C (6 °F), da 2.8 °C (5 °F) a tsakiyar Amurka. Duk da haka, binciken da aka biyo baya ya gano cewa canjin yanayi a cikin murfin girgije zai iya fiye da bayyana waɗannan binciken. Marubutan wani binciken na 2008 sun rubuta, "Bambance-bambance a cikin babban murfin girgije, gami da hanawa da kuma gajimare na cirrus da ke haifar da rikice-rikice, suna ba da gudummawa mai rauni ga canje-canje a cikin kewayon zafin rana, wanda ke gudana da farko ta ƙananan girgije, iska, da zafi. " [58]

USAAF 8th Air Force B-17s da kuma abubuwan da suka faru.

Wani binciken da aka yi a shekara ta 2011 na bayanan yanayi na Biritaniya da aka ɗauka a lokacin yakin duniya na biyu ya gano wani abu guda ɗaya inda zafin jiki ya kai 0.8 °C (1.4 °F) sama da matsakaicin rana a kusa da sansanonin jiragen sama da AmurkaAF ke amfani da dabarun bama-bamai bayan sun tashi a cikin tsari, kodayake sun yi gargadin cewa taron ne guda. [59]

Sama sama da Würzburg ba tare da tashe-tashen hankula ba bayan rushewar tafiye-tafiye ta iska a cikin 2010 (hagu) kuma tare da zirga-zirgar iska na yau da kullun da yanayin da ya dace (dama)

Amsar da duniya ta yi game da cutar sankarau ta 2020 ta haifar da raguwar zirga-zirgar jiragen sama a duniya kusan kashi 70% dangane da 2019. Don haka, ya ba da dama mai tsawo don nazarin tasirin abubuwan da ke tattare da yanayin zafi na yanki da na duniya. Nazarin da yawa sun sami "babu wani amsa mai mahimmanci na keyway on yanayin iska na yau da kullun" sakamakon sakamakon sauye-sauye, kuma ko dai "babu babban mahimmancin ERF na duniya" (ingantacciyar radiative tilasta ) ko kuma ƙaramin tasirin dumamar yanayi. [60] [61] A gefe guda, raguwar hayakin sulfate da ke haifarwa ta hanyar takaita zirga-zirgar ababen hawa da masana'antu yayin kulle-kullen COVID-19 ya sami tasirin dumamar yanayi: an 4kulle-kulle. [62]

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 P. JSTOR Masson-Delmotte. Invalid |url-status=1238 (help); Missing or empty |title= (help)Seneviratne, S.I.; Zhang, X.; Adnan, M.; Badi, W.; Dereczynski, C.; Di Luca, A.; Ghosh, S.; Iskandar, I.; Kossin, J.; Lewis, S.; Otto, F.; Pinto, I.; Satoh, M.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; Wehner, M.; Zhou, B. (2021). Masson-Delmotte, V.; Zhai, P.; Piran, A.; Connors, S.L.; Péan, C.; Berger, S.; Caud, N.; Chen, Y.; Goldfarb, L. (eds.). "Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate" (PDF). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2021: 1238. Bibcode:2021AGUFM.U13B..05K. doi:10.1017/9781009157896.007. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "IPCC_WGI_Ch11" defined multiple times with different content
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 Empty citation (help)Eddy, John A.; Gilliland, Ronald L.; Hoyt, Douglas V. (23 December 1982). "Changes in the solar constant and climatic effects". Nature. 300 (5894): 689–693. Bibcode:1982Natur.300..689E. doi:10.1038/300689a0. S2CID 4320853. Spacecraft measurements have established that the total radiative output of the Sun varies at the 0.1−0.3% level Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "Eddy et al. 1982" defined multiple times with different content
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 Empty citation (help)Wild, Martin; Trüssel, Barbara; Ohmura, Atsumu; Long, Charles N.; König-Langlo, Gert; Dutton, Ellsworth G.; Tsvetkov, Anatoly (16 May 2009). "Global dimming and brightening: An update beyond 2000". Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 114 (D10): D00D13. Bibcode:2009JGRD..114.0D13W. doi:10.1029/2008JD011382. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "Wild2009" defined multiple times with different content
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  10. ↑ 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3–32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "IPCC_WGI_SPM" defined multiple times with different content
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  30. ↑ 30.0 30.1 IPCC, 1990: Chapter 1: Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols [R.T. Watson, H. Rodhe, H. Oeschger and U. Siegenthaler]. In: Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment [J.T.Houghton, G.J.Jenkins and J.J.Ephraums (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 31–34,
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  56. ↑ . etal Invalid |url-status=864–7 (help); Cite journal requires |journal= (help); Missing or empty |title= (help)
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