Tsarin yanayi

Misalai na yanayi sun raba duniya zuwa grid na 3 kuma suna amfani da daidaitattun bambance-bambance ga kowane grid. Daidaitawar sun dogara ne akan ka'idojin asali na kimiyyar lissafi, motsi na ruwa, da ilmin sunadarai.

Yadda duniya ke canja yanayi

Huricaane ambaliya

Misalai na yanayi na lambobi (ko tsarin yanayi) sune samfuran lissafi waɗanda zasu iya kwaikwayon hulɗar mahimman direbobi na yanayi. Wadannan direbobi sune yanayi, Tekuna, ƙasa da kankara. Masana kimiyya suna amfani da samfuran yanayi don nazarin yanayin yanayin yanayi da kuma yin tsinkaya game da yanayi na gaba da Canjin yanayi. Misalai na yanayi na iya zama masu inganci (watau ba lambobi ba) kuma suna dauke da labarai, galibi suna bayyanawa, na yiwuwar makomar gaba.

Misalai na yanayi suna la'akari da makamashi mai shigowa daga Rana da kuma makamashi dake fitowa daga Duniya. Rashin daidaituwa yana haifar da canjin zafin jiki. Makamashi mai shigowa daga Sun yana cikin nau'in gajeren radiation na lantarki, wanda ke bayyane da gajeren infrared (kusa). Makamashi mai fita yana cikin nau'in tsawo mai tsawo (mai nisa) makamashi na lantarki. Wadannan matakai suna daga cikin tasirin greenhouse.

Misalai na yanayi sun bambanta da rikitarwa. Misali, samfurin canja wurin zafi mai sauƙi yana bi da Duniya a matsayin aya ɗaya kuma yana da matsakaicin makamashi mai fita. Ana iya fadada wannan a tsaye (model radiative-convective) da kuma a kwance. Misalai masu rikitarwa sune tsarin yanayi-teku-teku na kankara na duniya. Wadannan nau'ikan samfuran suna warware cikakkun daidaitattun don canja wurin taro, canja wurin makamashi da musayar radiant. Bugu da kari, wasu nau'ikan samfuran za'a iya haɗa su. Misali Tsarin Tsarin Duniya ya haɗa da Amfani da ƙasa da canje-canje na amfani da ƙasa. Wannan yana bawa masu bincike damar hango hasashen hulɗar tsakanin yanayi da yanayin halittu.

Misalai na yanayi sune tsarin bambancin daidaitattun daidaitattun da suka danganci ka'idojin kimiyyar lissafi, motsi na ruwa, da ilmin sunadarai. Masana kimiyya sun raba duniyar zuwa grid mai girma 3 kuma suna amfani da ma'auni na asali ga waɗancan grid. Misalai na yanayi suna lissafin iskõki, canja wurin zafi, radiation, zafi na dangi, da kuma yanayin ruwa a cikin kowane grid kuma suna kimanta hulɗa tare da maki makwabta. Wadannan an haɗa su da samfuran teku don kwaikwayon Canjin yanayi da canji da ke faruwa a lokuta daban-daban saboda sauyawar ruwan teku da kuma mafi girma da haɗin kai da ƙarfin zafi na teku na duniya. Hakanan ana iya amfani da direbobi na waje na canji. Ciki har da samfurin kankara mafi kyau don tasirin dogon lokaci kamar hauhawar matakin teku.

Amfani dashi

Akwai manyan nau'ikan ma'aikata guda uku inda ake haɓaka samfuran yanayi, aiwatarwa da amfani dasu:

• Ayyukan yanayi na kasa: Yawancin ayyukan yanayi na kasa suna da sashen yanayin yanayi.
• Jami'o'i: Ma'aikatun da suka dace sun haɗa da kimiyyar yanayi, ilimin yanayi, ilimin yanayin yanayi, da yanayin ƙasa.
• Gidajen bincike na kasa da na kasa: Misalan sun hada da Cibiyar Nazarin Yanayi ta Kasa (NCAR, a Boulder, Colorado, Amurka), Gidan Nazarin Yanayin Yanayi na Geophysical (GFDL, a Princeton, New Jersey, Amurka), Los Alamos National Laboratory, Cibiyar Hadley don Tsinkaya da Bincike (a Exeter, Burtaniya), Cibiyar Max Planck don Meteorology a Hamburg, Jamus, ko Laboratory des Sciences duat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), Faransa.

Babban tsarin yanayi yana da mahimmanci amma ba cikakke ba ne.Har yanzu ana buƙatar mai da hankali ga duniyar gaskiya (abin dake faruwa da kuma dalilin da ya sa). Misalai na duniya suna da mahimmanci don daidaita duk abubuwan lura, musamman daga sararin samaniya (satellites) da samar da cikakken bincike game da abin dake faruwa, sannan kuma ana iya amfani da su don yin tsinkaya / tsinkaya. Misalai masu sauƙi suna da rawar da zasu taka wanda akayi amfani dashi sosai kuma ya kasa gane sauƙaƙe kamar batare da haɗa sake zagayowar ruwa ba.  

Misalai na ma'auni na makamashi (EBMs)

Simulation na tsarin yanayi a cikin cikakken sararin samaniya na 3-D da lokaci bashi da amfani kafin kafa manyan kayan aikin lissafi farawa a cikin shekarun 1960. Don fara fahimtar waɗanne dalilai na iya canza yanayin yanayi na Duniya, ana buƙatar rage ƙididdigar tsarin da girman tsarin. An fara kirkirar samfurin ƙididdiga mai sauƙi wanda ke daidaita makamashi mai shigowa / fita don yanayi a ƙarshen karni na 19. Sauran EBMs kamar haka suna neman bayanin tattalin arziki na yanayin zafi ta hanyar amfani da kiyayewar ƙuntataccen makamashi ga kowane ginshiƙi na tsarin sararin samaniya na Duniya.

Abubuwan da suka fi muhimmanci na EBMs sun haɗa da sauƙin ra'ayi na dangi da kuma ikon suna samar da mafita na nazari a wasu lokuta.: 19 Wasu samfuran suna da alaƙa da tasirin teku, ƙasa, ko siffofin kankara akan kasafin kuɗi. Sauran sun haɗa da hulɗa tare da sassa na sake zagayowar ruwa ko sake zagayolar carbon. Hanyoyin waɗannan da sauran ƙananan tsarin na iya zama da amfani ga ayyuka na musamman waɗanda ke ƙara GCMs, musamman don daidaita gibin tsakanin kwaikwayon da fahimta.

Misalai masu girman gaske

Misalai na Zero-dimensional suna la'akari da Duniya a matsayin ma'ana a sararin samaniya, mai kama da launin shudi wanda Voyager 1 ya kalli ko ra'ayin masanin taurari game da abubuwa masu nisa. Wannan ra'ayi mara girma yayin da yake da iyaka sosai har yanzu yana da amfani saboda dokokin kimiyyar lissafi suna aiki a cikin babban salon ga abubuwa da ba'a sani ba, ko kuma a cikin hanyar data dace idan an san wasu manyan kaddarorin abu. Misali, masu binciken sararin samaniya sun san cewa yawancin taurari a cikin tsarin hasken rana suna da wani nau'i mai ƙarfi / ruwa wanda ke kewaye da yanayin gas.

Misali tare da haɗuwa da wuri da yanayi

Misali mai sauƙi na daidaitattun radiative na Duniya shine

$(1-a)S\pi r^{2}=4\pi r^{2}\epsilon \sigma T^{4}$

inda

• gefen hagu yana wakiltar jimlar ikon gajeren lokaci mai shigowa (a cikin Watts) daga Sun
• gefen dama yana wakiltar jimlar ikon da ke fitowa (a cikin Watts) daga Duniya, wanda aka lissafa daga Dokar Stefan-Boltzmann.

Sigogi na yau da kullun sun haɗa da

• S shine ma'aunin hasken rana - hasken rana mai shigowa a kowane yanki - game da 1367 W·m⁻² 
• 6" href="./Radius" id="mwjg" rel="mw:WikiLink" title="Radius">r shine radius na Duniya - kusan 6.371×106 m 
• π shine ma'aunin lissafi (3.141...)
• σ {\displaystyle \sigma } shine Stefan-Boltzmann constant - kusan 5.67×10⁻⁸ J·K−4·m−2·s⁻¹

Kullum

π

r

2

{\displaystyle \pi \,r^{2}}

za a iya lissafa shi, yana bada daidaitattun ma'auni don daidaitawa

$(1-a)S=4\epsilon \sigma T^{4}$

inda

• gefen hagu yana wakiltar isar da makamashi mai zuwa daga Sun a cikin W·m⁻²
• gefen dama yana wakiltar fitowar makamashi mai tsawo daga Duniya a W·m⁻².

Sauran sigogi masu canji waɗanda keda takamaiman duniya sun haɗa da

• a {\$a$ shine matsakaicin albedo na Duniya, an auna shi 0.3 .
• T {\$T$ shine K" data-linkid="186" href="./Global_surface_temperature" id="mwtA" rel="mw:WikiLink" title="Global surface temperature">matsakaicin zafin jiki na duniya, an auna shi kamar yadda ya kai 288 K kamar yadda ya faru a shekarar 2020  
• ε {\displaystyle \epsilon } shine tasirin tasirin tasirin duniya da yanayin da aka haɗu (gami da girgije). Adadin ne tsakanin 0 da 1 wanda aka lissafa daga daidaituwa don zama kusan 0.61. Don maganin sifili daidai yake da matsakaicin darajar a kan dukkan kusurwoyin kallo.

Wannan samfurin mai sauƙi yana da koyarwa sosai. Misali, yana nuna ƙarancin zafin jiki ga canje-canje a cikin hasken rana, albedo na Duniya, ko tasirin duniya. Har ila yau, tasirin tasirin tasirin iska yana auna ƙarfin tasirin yanayi, tunda shine rabo na hayakin zafi dake tserewa zuwa sararin samaniya da waɗanda ke fitowa daga farfajiya.

Za'a iya kwatanta ƙididdigar ƙididdigat da bayanan da ke akwai. Abubuwan da ke cikin ƙasa duk suna cikin kewayon 0.96 zuwa 0.99 (saidai ga wasu ƙananan wuraren hamada waɗanda zasu iya zama ƙasa da 0.7). Clouds, duk da haka, wanda ke rufe kusan rabin farfajiyar duniya, suna da matsakaicin emissivity na kimanin 0.5 (wanda dole ne a rage shi da iko na huɗu na rabo na girgije cikakke zafin jiki zuwa matsakaicin zafin jiki) da kuma matsakaicin girgije na kimanin 258 K (−15 °C; 5 °F) K (-15 ° C; 5 ° F). Yin la'akari da duk wannan yadda ya kamata yana haifar da tasirin ƙasa na kimanin 0.64 (zafin jiki na duniya 285 K (12 °C; 53 °F) ° C; 53 ° F)).  

EBM guda ɗaya tare da farfajiyar baki

Hakanan an gina samfuran da basu da girma tare da sassan yanayi da aka raba daga farfajiya. Mafi sauki daga cikin wadannan shine sifili-dimensional, daya-layer model, wanda za'a iya fadada shi cikin sauƙi zuwa wani arbitrary yawan yanayi yadudduka. Yankin da yanayin yanayi (s) kowannensu yana da yanayin zafin jiki da ƙimar emissivity, amma babu kauri. Yin amfani da daidaitattun radiative (watau kiyaye makamashi) a tsakanin yadudduka yana samar da saiti na daidaitattun daidaitattun waɗanda za'a iya warware su.

Misalai masu laushi suna samar da yanayin zafi wanda yafi dacewa da kimantawa waɗanda aka lura don farfajiyar Duniya da matakan yanayi. Hakanan suna nuna tsarin canja wurin zafi wanda ke haifar da tasirin greenhouse. Svante Arrhenius ne yafara buga ƙididdigar wannan abin da yafaru ta amfani da sigar samfurin guda ɗaya a cikin shekara ta 1896.

Rashin ruwa shine babban abin dake ƙayyade yanayin duniya. Dukansu suna tasiri ga kwararar radiation kuma suna rinjayar kwararar zafi ta hanyar data dace da ma'auni da zafin jiki a matsayin aikin tsawo (watau rarraba zafi). An nuna wannan ta hanyar tsaftace samfurin sifili a tsaye zuwa samfurin radiative-convective guda ɗaya wanda ke la'akari da matakai biyu na jigilar makamashi:

• upwelling da downwelling radiative canja wuri ta hanyar yanayi yadudduka cewa duka suna sha da kuma fitar da infrared radiation
• jigilar zafi ta iska da tururi, wanda ke da mahimmanci a cikin ƙananan troposphere.

Misalai na radiative-convective suna da fa'idodi a kan samfuran da suka fi sauƙi kuma sun kafa tushe ga samfuran da aka fi rikitarwa. Zasu iya kimanta duka zafin jiki da bambancin zafin jiki tare da tsawo a hanyar da tafi dacewa. Har ila yau, suna kwaikwayon raguwar da aka lura a cikin zafin jiki na sama da kuma tashi a cikin zabin jiki na sama lokacin da aka haɗa adadin wasu iskar gas masu guba Alamar carbon dioxide.

Sauran sigogi ana haɗa su a wasu lokuta don kwaikwayon tasirin yanki a wasu girma da kuma magance abubuwan dake motsa makamashi game da Duniya. Misali, an bincika tasirin ra'ayoyin kankara-albedo akan Yanayin yanayi na duniya ta amfani da tsarin yanayi na radiative-convective guda ɗaya.

Misalai masu girma

Za'a iya fadada samfurin sifili don la'akari da makamashi da aka ɗauka a kwance a cikin yanayi. Irin wannan samfurin na iya zama matsakaicin yanki. Wannan samfurin yana da fa'idar ba da izinin dogaro da albedo na gida da emissivity akan zafin jiki - ana iya bada izini ga sanduna su zama sanyi kuma ma'auni yana da dumi - amma rashin ƙarfin gaskiya yana nufin cewa dole ne a ƙayyade jigilar a kwance.

Misalan farko sun haɗa da ayyukan Mikhail Budyko da William D. Sellers (wanda aka fi sani da Budyko-Sellers model). Wadannan sun kara nuna rawar da Ra'ayoyi masu kyau ke takawa a cikin tsarin yanayi kuma an dauke su EBMs na tushe tun lokacin da aka buga su a shekarar 1969.

Tsarin tsarin duniya na matsakaici (EMICs)

Samfuri:Atmospheric, Oceanographic and Climate ModelsDangane da yanayin tambayoyin da akayi da kuma ma'aunin lokaci mai dacewa, akwai, a kan wani matsananciyar, ra'ayi, ƙarin samfuran inductive, kuma, a kan ɗayan matsananciyar hanyar watsawa ta gaba ɗaya dake aiki a mafi girman ƙuduri na sararin samaniya dana lokaci a halin yanzu. Misalai na matsakaici rikitarwa suna rufe rata. Misali daya shine samfurin Climber-3. Yanayinta samfurin ƙididdigar 2.5-dimensional ne tare da ƙuduri 7.5 ° × 22.5 ° da kuma matakin lokaci na rabin rana; teku shine MOM-3 (Modular Ocean Model) tare da grid 3.75 ° × 3.75 ° da matakan tsaye 24.

Misalai na akwatin

Tsarin samfurin akwati mai sauƙi wanda akayi amfani dashi don kwatanta kwarara a cikin sake zagayowar geochemical, yana nuna tushen (Q) , sink (S) da tafki (M)

Misalai na akwatin sune sauƙaƙe na tsarin rikitarwa, rage su zuwa akwatuna (ko tafkuna) dake da alaƙa da gudana. Ana zaton akwatunan sun haɗu daidai. A cikin akwatin da aka bashi, maida hankali ga kowane nau'in sinadarai saboda haka iri ɗaya ne. Koyaya, yawan jinsin a cikin akwatin da aka bashi na iya bambanta a matsayin aikin lokaci saboda shigarwa zuwa (ko asarar) akwatin ko saboda samarwa, amfani ko lalacewar wannan jinsin a ciki.  

Misalai na akwatin mai sauƙi, watau samfurin akwatin tare da ƙananan akwatuna waɗanda kaddarorin su (misali girman su) basa canzawa tare da lokaci, sau dayawa suna da amfani don samun tsarin nazari wanda ke kwatanta ƙarfin da yawan yanayin jinsin. Ana warware samfuran akwatuna masu rikitarwa ta amfani da dabarun lambobi.  ^{[citation needed]}

Ana amfani da samfuran akwatin sosai don tsara tsarin muhalli ko tsarin halittu da kuma nazarin yaduwar teku da sake zagayowar carbon.Sune misalai na Tsarin sashi da yawa.

Tarihi

Ƙara tsinkaye da tabbaci a tsawon lokaci

IPCC ta bayyana a cikin 2010 cewa ta kara amincewa da tsinkaye dake fitowa daga tsarin yanayi:

Akwai amincewa mai yawa cewa tsarin yanayi yana bada ƙididdigar ƙididdigat na canjin yanayi na gaba, musamman a ma'auni na nahiyar da sama. Wannan amincewa ya fito ne daga tushe na samfuran a cikin ka'idodin jiki da aka yarda dasu da kuma ikon suna haifi siffofin da aka lura da yanayin yanzu da canje-canjen yanayi na baya. Tabbaci a cikin ƙididdigar samfurin ya fi girma ga wasu masu canjin yanayi (misali, zafin jiki) fiye da wasu (misali., hazo). Fiye da shekaru dayawa na cigaba, samfuran sun cigaba da samar da hoto mai ƙarfi da rashin tabbas na gagarumin yanayin zafi don mayar da martani ga karuwar iskar gas.

Gudanar da bincike

Shirin Binciken Yanayi na Duniya (WCRP), wanda Hukumar Kula da Yanayi ta Duniya (WMO) ta shirya, tana daidaita ayyukan bincike kan tsarin yanayi a duk duniya.

Wani rahoto na Majalisar Bincike ta Kasa ta Amurka ta 2012 ya tattauna yadda babban kamfanin samfurin yanayi na Amurka zai iya canzawa don zama mafi hadin kai. Za'a iya samun inganci ta hanyar haɓaka kayan aikin software na yau da kullun da duk masu binciken yanayi na Amurka suka raba, da kuma gudanar da taron tsara yanayi na shekara-shekara, rahoton ya samu.

Tambayoyi

Amfani da wutar lantarki

Misalai na yanayin dake warware girgije a zamanin yau suna gudana a kan 2" href="./Supercomputer" id="mwAVI" rel="mw:WikiLink" title="Supercomputer">manyan kwamfutoci masu ƙarfi waɗanda keda amfani da wutar lantarki mai ƙarfi kuma ta haka ne ke haifar da hayakin CO2.Suna buƙatar lissafin exascale (billion biliyan - watau, quintillion - lissafi a kowace dakika). Misali, supercomputer mai zurfi na Frontier yana cinye 29 MW. Yana iya kwaikwayon darajar shekara guda na yanayi a girgije warware sikelin a rana.

Hanyoyin da zasu iya haifar da tanadin makamashi, sun haɗa da misali: "ƙananan ƙididdigar ƙididdiga mai tasowa; haɓaka algorithms na ilmantarwa na inji don kauce wa ƙididdigat daba dole ba; da ƙirƙirar sabon ƙarni na ƙididdigal algorithms wanda zai bada damar ƙaruwa mafi girma dangane da shekarun da aka tsara ta kowace rana. "

Ma'auni

• Binciken sararin samaniya
• Tsarin sufuri na sinadarai
• Ma'aunin Radiation na sararin samaniya (ARM) (a Amurka)
• Canjin Bayanai na Yanayi
• Climateprediction.net
• Hasashen Yanayi na Yanayi
• Tsarin yanayi mai tsauri
• Misali na tsinkaya na guguwa mai zafi
• Tabbatar da tabbatar da samfuran kwaikwayo na kwamfuta
• Tsarin kankara na teku na CICE

Manazarta

• Meyasa sakamakon daga ƙarni na gaba na samfuran yanayi yazama mahimmanci CarbonBrief, Baƙon post na Belcher, Boucher, Sutton, 21 Maris 2019

Misalai na yanayi a yanar gizo:

• Dapper / DChart - mãkirci da bayanan samfurin saukewa da Rahoton Bincike na huɗu (AR4) na Kwamitin Gwamnati kan Canjin Yanayi ya ambata. (Ba a samuwa ba)
• NCAR / UCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM)
• Yi da kanka tsinkaya na yanayi
• Binciken farko na GCM wanda NASA / GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ta haɓaka
• Misali na asali na NASA / GISS na duniya (GCM) tare da mai amfani mai amfani don PCs da Mac
• Bayani na samfurin CCCma da dubawa don dawo da bayanan samfurin
• NOAA / Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory An adana shi CM2 Bayanan samfurin yanayi na duniya da fayilolin fitar da samfurin
• Dry idealized AGCM bisa ga sama GFDL CM2
• Misali na yanayin zafi mai kyau (MiMA) : bisa ga GFDL CM2. Rikitarwa tsakanin samfuran bushe da cikakkun GCMs
• Empirical Climate Model An adana shi